NEWSLETTER
Well-timed as the Cubs head to St. Louis for an important early-season weekend series against the Cardinals, Dan Szymborski released his latest ZiPS-projected playoff odds. Figured you’d want a peek while you away tonight’s game.
These odds are based on a whole lot of simulations using the various team rosters over the remaining schedule, and the ZiPS projection system, which is among the better options out there. Here’s where things stand right now for the Cubs and other contenders:
#ZiPS projected mean standings and playoff probabilities, 5/3/18. pic.twitter.com/Z2tvIk4fhL
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) May 3, 2018
We’ve got some races, folks. Consider that the Cubs are projected to win the most games in the National League, and yet have only a 56.0% chance of winning the NL Central. The primary reason there is that ZiPS does not hate the Pirates, likes the Brewers, and loves the Cardinals. In other words, as things stand right now, ZiPS is projecting a season-long slog for the Cubs, even if they perform well from here on out.
The Cubs project with the best chance overall at making the playoffs, but even that is just 81.7%. The National League is looking might competitive, with a whopping 10 out of 15 teams sporting a 20% or better chance at making the playoffs. Contrast that with the American League, where just six teams are above 20%, and FOUR teams are already above 95%!
