Ah, The 2020 Plan in action! The Cubs need relievers aplenty, and since they cannot spend any guaranteed money right now, it’s time for some more fringe deals!
The #Cubs and RHP Ryan Tepera have agreed to terms on a 2020 contract. pic.twitter.com/3Pn9oMnMlo
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) December 20, 2019
Much like the Dan Winkler signing, this one is a split contract:
Cubs have signed right-handed pitcher Ryan Tepera to a one-year split deal. $900K if he’s in the bigs, $300K in the minors. He has an option remaining. 40-man at 39
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) December 20, 2019
So, you can see the obvious benefit of a contract like this. The player gets a big league roster spot and a greatly elevated minor league salary, but the Cubs aren’t on the hook for the full amount until/unless he’s in the big leagues. And with a minor league option left, Tepera can be shuttled up and down from AAA Iowa as needed. In terms of contract structures for relievers, these are good deals to be doing.
But, obviously, the more important issue … is Tepera any good?
Well, on the one hand, he wouldn’t be available for a dirt-cheap split deal (like Winkler was) if he was an obvious home run. The Cubs have decided to take a lot of risks this year with their bullpen, and Tepera is right there.
The Cubs have actually been connected to Tepera in acquisition rumors before over the years, so there must be something specific about him that they like. Now 32, Tepera has had a pretty “fine” big league career as a middle reliever with the Blue Jays the last half-decade, at least until 2019 when things went off the rails:
As you can see, though, the 2019 season was greatly abbreviated by an elbow impingement issue, which ultimately required a cleanup procedure to remove loose bodies. I think you could pretty much throw out the terrible performance in 2019, in that case, because of the injury. But, well, you can’t throw out the injury or the surgery.
That is to say, if Tepera returns healthy, you might be able to reasonably project him being something close to the guy he was in 2017/18 – a solid middle reliever, about 10-15% better than league average – but there’s no guarantee that he does return, physically, to what he was. It’s actually probably only a pretty small chance that happens, given the injury and the age. Hence the split deal.
For his career, Tepera works with a mid-90s four-seam fastball and a sinker (which fell off a cliff in 2019 – again, the elbow, but also probably some aging), and also leans heavily on a 90mph cutter. At his best, they all rated as slightly positive pitches, so this isn’t an obvious case of just chopping out a pitch and trying to remake a guy a bit (unless the Cubs cut one out and then teach him a knuckle curve or something). Then again, in 2018, his four-seamer was among the better “risers,” and his cutter was up there among the most lateral movement, so this is probably a bet on him getting back to that if he’s healthy.