Akiyama Meh Projection for the Reds, Reliever Volatility, and Other Cubs Bullets

It will be a challenging day to be on the internet and keep the focus on baseball. I know it’s a privilege to be able to even *try* to just focus on baseball, but I’ll be honest, that’s what I prefer to do right now.

  • FanGraphs has a writeup on the Shogo Akiyama signing for the Reds, and, as an everyday player, ZiPS is fairly pessimistic for what Akiyama will be, particularly after 2020:
  • (via FanGraphs)

  • Akiyama was always more about the potential upside of a solid leadoff hitter (against righties, at least) than the certainty that he’ll be an above-average regular, but as you can see, ZiPS is saying he’s slightly below average overall as a regular in 2020, and then declining from there. That looks more like a really solid 4th outfielder than an everyday center fielder. The Reds clearly like him better than that, though obviously the downside risk of “4th outfielder” was always present.
  • This kind of projection would indeed make me a little more leery about going to three years and $20-ish million on Akiyama, if that’s where the price tag ultimately winds up from the Reds. Do I still wish the Cubs had been able to make a deal happen? Since he’s the type of roll-the-dice guy that makes sense in 2020? Yes. But in a world where the Cubs are really going to deemphasize 2020, I could understand why they wouldn’t want to sign Akiyama to a three-year deal at the moment.
  • Buster Olney, with input from around baseball, ranks the best relievers in the game, and among the 18 names mentioned, there are no Cubs. Not that you’d expect otherwise. What’s more notable is how rapidly the names rise and fall on reliever lists like that – the absolute shutdown studs of 2018 fall off, new guys come out of nowhere to be absurdly dominant. You want to succeed at the highest level in the bullpen? Sure, you have to spend wisely and develop top prospects well. But it also really helps to hit one of those reclamation, out-of-nowhere home runs. Heck, four of the top seven relievers on Olney’s list were at one time reclamation/out-of-nowhere types: Kirby Yates, Nick Anderson, Liam Hendriks, and Ryan Pressly.
  • The Cubs are certainly taking plenty of those swings, which you can do only when you actually have those innings available to go around. Maybe that’s at least part of the reason why clubs like the Rays, Twins, and A’s so consistently churn out those types of surprise breakout relievers?
  • Good work, young man:
  • Hey, I know him:
  • Here’s hoping number three helps get Craig Kimbrel back to where he should be, and here’s hoping folks never forget how good number eight was:
  • I’m sure we’ll all get used to the swoosh, but, to me, it looks awkward:
  • Yankees pitcher Domingo German’s domestic violence suspension has finally been handed down, and it’s a big one:
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 5, Pirates 4 – May 12, 2024

    It's Mother's Day. I'm hanging with the family. I don't feel like being as pissed off as a game like that threatened to make me. So I am QUITE relieved by that 10th inning (and the fact that the Cubs...

    Christopher Morel Kicks Off Mother’s Day With Some Love

    I'll just presume he was sending this one out for mom. And I'll also presume that the knee is indeed feeling good. Home run number nine on the season for Christopher Morel: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1789713524052087082

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (12:35 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs have played thirteen series so far this season, and this is already their eighth rubber match. Let's see if Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs can bring this one in. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, SS...

    Cubs Roster Move: Kyle Hendricks Activated to Start Today

    No surprises here, as the decision to start Kyle Hendricks this afternoon against the Pirates was made yesterday, but the news has officially hit the wire, and here it is. Kyle Hendricks Activated Kyle Hendricks is returning from his short...

    Horrible History, Morel’s Knee, Almonte’s Shoulder, Hoerner, Wesneski, Hendricks, Mervis, and Other Cubs Bullets

    Happy Mother's Day to the mothers among you, and to the mothers in my life! I'll be doing some extra family stuff today, so I'm gonna cruise through these Bullets ... Up front, because this was certainly the thing most...

    Kyle Hendricks Will Start for the Big League Cubs Tomorrow

    The Sunday TBD has been D'd, and it's going to be Kyle Hendricks coming back an outing early. Instead of making another rehab start at Iowa, Hendricks is going to be activated from the IL to rejoin the rotation tomorrow:...

    Enhanced Box Score: Pirates 10, Cubs 9 – May 11, 2024

    The Cubs came within 90 feet of keeping that ridiculous game going. No dice. Stupid game. Early on, it just kinda seemed like the Cubs might lose a perfectly normal - bad, but normal - game. Justin Steele did not...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (3:05 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — After a little tease yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is actually, officially in the Cubs lineup today. And he'll be greeted with a tough matchup against the top pitching prospect in Major League Baseball. Welcome back! Chicago Cubs Lineup:...

    Oh, Good, Yency Almonte is Now Also Hurt

    Today the Chicago Cubs placed reliever Yency Almonte on the Injured List with a right shoulder strain. Jose Cuas has been recalled from Iowa to take his place in the bullpen. Almonte, together with Mark Leiter Jr., had been performing...

    Credit to Assad, Huge Ups to Brown, Hopes for Taillon, Happ’s Bat and Glove, Bellinger History, and Other Cubs Bullets

    How did I not know that the Aurora Borealis was going to be visible last night?!?!? I woke up this morning to all these awesome pictures from friends and other people in the area, and I'm MISERABLE ABOUT IT. With...

    Latest News

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 5, Pirates 4 – May 12, 2024

    It's Mother's Day. I'm hanging with the family. I don't feel like being as pissed off as a game like that threatened to make me. So I am QUITE relieved by that 10th inning (and the fact that the Cubs...

    Nikola Jokic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Timberwolves – Conference Semifinals Game 4, Sunday, May 12, 2024

    Nikola Jokic must make two 3-pointers to beat his prop when the Denver Nuggets play the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs.Nikola Jokic's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs....

    Michael Porter Jr. Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Timberwolves – Conference Semifinals Game 4, Sunday, May 12, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Michael Porter Jr. must make three from beyond the arc on Sunday, when his Denver Nuggets face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs, starting at 8:00 PM...

    Anthony Edwards Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Nuggets – Conference Semifinals Game 4, Sunday, May 12, 2024

    On Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves play the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs, and Anthony Edwards' 3-pointer over/under for this matchup requires three treys.Anthony Edwards' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs....

    Jamal Murray Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Timberwolves – Conference Semifinals Game 4, Sunday, May 12, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Jamal Murray must make two from beyond the arc on Sunday, when his Denver Nuggets face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs, starting at 8:00 PM ET.Jamal...

    Karl-Anthony Towns Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Nuggets – Conference Semifinals Game 4, Sunday, May 12, 2024

    Karl-Anthony Towns must make two 3-pointers to beat his over/under when the Minnesota Timberwolves play the Denver Nuggets on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs.Karl-Anthony Towns' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs....

    Top Player Prop Bets for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Western Conference Semifinals Game 4 on May 12, 2024

    Player prop betting options for Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokic and others are available in the Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets matchup at Target Center on Sunday (starting at 8:00 PM ET).How to Watch Timberwolves vs. NuggetsDate: Sunday, May 12, 2024Time: 8:00 PM...

    Christopher Morel Kicks Off Mother’s Day With Some Love

    I'll just presume he was sending this one out for mom. And I'll also presume that the knee is indeed feeling good. Home run number nine on the season for Christopher Morel: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1789713524052087082

    Rome Odunze Missed Saturday’s Bears Rookie Minicamp Practice

    I was rounding up this morning's set of Bears Bullets when I saw this note from the Chicago Tribune's Dan Wiederer on rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze sitting out Saturday's practice with hamstring tightness and I knew I had to...

    Cubs Roster Move: Kyle Hendricks Activated to Start Today

    No surprises here, as the decision to start Kyle Hendricks this afternoon against the Pirates was made yesterday, but the news has officially hit the wire, and here it is. Kyle Hendricks Activated Kyle Hendricks is returning from his short...

    more cubs news