NEWSLETTER
As always, when trade rumors flare up, it’s good to get as many perspectives as possible – it’s all rumor data we can sift through and try to discern some reasonably likely version of reality.
Specifically, it’s useful to get local perspectives, any time something pops up nationally or from one side of the equation – like the rumors yesterday emanating nationally and out of Chicago about Nolan Arenado. Specifically, Jeff Passan said that Arenado would love to be on the Cubs (a notable desire given his no-trade rights), and Jesse Rogers said the Cubs and Rockies had discussed a one-for-one swap involving Arenado and Kris Bryant.
But what are the reports saying in Denver? Is that stuff squaring?
Thankfully, Rockies beat reporting Patrick Saunders had a Q&A lined up and decided to take the opportunity to open with a discussion of various Arenado rumors:
Loaded #Rockies mailbag this week: Why should fans continue to care? Will Nolan situation have negative repercussions in clubhouse? What does back end of rotation look like? + more… https://t.co/tRLifYZQFE via @psaundersdp
— Kyle Newman (@KyleNewmanDP) January 29, 2020
Although Saunders did not directly address anything with respect to Bryant and the Cubs, he did – with confidence – share some very notable things:
That last part sure would put the Cubs in a weird spot if they, for example, hang onto Bryant and are competitive come midseason. Could they justify a trade at that point for Arenado if it meant staying over the luxury tax? Would they try to do both things at once – add Arenado to keep winning, but also somehow cut major salary? – even while competitive in the middle of the season? Sure feels like that might be the ONE scenario where you could see the front office and ownership scrapping The 2020 Plan and deciding they might just have to try to get under the luxury tax next year.
The long story short here is that I do think we have a pretty good sense at this point on what is motivating the Rockies, and why there hasn’t been movement. They want a whole lot of conflicting things – to win right away, to make Arenado happy, to not spend money, to trade Arenado for win-now pieces – and that doesn’t exactly lend itself to coherent and actionable trade talks.
Gut says it is indeed highly unlikely that Arenado is traded before Spring Training, but then it becomes extremely likely he’s shopped aggressively in-season to a contender that (1) he wants to go to (no-trade rights), (2) is willing to risk his opt-out after 2021 or is willing to pay him to waive it, and (3) can take on the vast majority of his remaining contract. That pool of teams could wind up being extremely small, so the Rockies are taking a huge risk not making a move now if one is available. But that does seem the most likely course of action. Who knows. Maybe they’ll shock everyone and win a lot of games in the first half, rendering a lot of this moot. (Doubtful.)
