NEWSLETTER
I still feel like I’m getting to know Nico Hoerner. Sometimes I have to remind myself that it hasn’t even been 120 games yet as a professional (big leagues and minors combined), that we’re still in the infancy changes of his developmental schedule.
If you haven’t noticed on Twitter, I’ve been watching Nico like a hawk this year, really trying to get a feel for the adjustments he’s making. The batting line is now down to .269/.333/.308 for the season (just a 83 wRC+), but just a few days ago the batting average was over .350 and positivity would have been extremely easy to strike.
Rather than cast judgment yet on *what* he is and will be – it’s just too early for that – let me just share six takeaways I have from the eight games he’s started this year.
1. This Groundball Rate is an Issue, But He’s Hitting the Ball Hard Enough That It’s Fixable
If you have a complaint about Hoerner so far, it pretty much has to be the tendency to hit the balls on the ground (particularly so close to Jason Heyward doing the same thing). His groundball rate enters today at 68.2%, good for 10th highest in baseball among players with at least 20 PA.
If we look at a launch angle histogram, via Baseball Savant, you’ll see that Hoerner has hit just five balls this year with a 20-degree launch angle or higher, versus 12 with a negative number.
This is absolutely part of his game that would have been a focus had he stayed longer in the minor leagues; the Cubs have actually been pretty successful at steepening launch angles through instruction. And this is consistent with that we were told about Hoerner time and again after he was drafted: we love the exit velo’s, we think there’s power to unlock.
And it’s true, the exit velocity numbers are good. After a 23.5 Hard Hit Percentage in his cup of coffee last year, Hoerner has that number up to 45.5% this year, good for the 81st percentile in baseball – which is so strange, given that his line drive percentage is still in single digits. If the Cubs can find a way to steepen his launch angle, we’re going to start seeing the doubles and triples that will make him a worthy everyday player.
2. The Plate Approach Has Improved, But it is Still Too Conventional
Last October, I shared some concern I had about Hoerner’s tendency to expand his zone. The good news is that he’s likely improved in this area. The O-Swing%, which was a worrisome 48.6% last year, is down to 29.3% in this brief 2020 sample.
If I were filing an advance scouting report on Nico, I would say that he has the plate approach that we try to teach our Little Leaguers to have: look for your pitch to drive early in the count, seek out fastballs when ahead, and go into protection mode with two strikes.
Hoerner has seen 34 pitches this year with two strikes, and he has swung at 24 of them, good for a 70.6 Swing%. In all other situations, that swing rate drops to 26.7% (24 swings on 90 pitches). What a huge difference! So, while Hoerner is staving off strikeouts in these situations – his contact skills are too good for that – he’s too often putting pitcher’s pitches into play.
I’d love to see coaches encourage Nico to trust his batting eye a little more with two strikes. We will trade some backwards-K’s for more walks and better contact.
3. Hoerner Sees Spin Really Well
And this is why I trust his judgment even more than he does!
One of the things I’ve been really impressed with Nico Hoerner this year is his ability to see spin. Only 2 swinging strikes (both for K’s) and one groundout against breaking balls versus three singles (for 3 RBI). Happy to not swing, too, and wait for the fastball. A taste: pic.twitter.com/SISBhhUJVy
— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) August 1, 2020
The results are a little worse since that video – we remember the swing at that Sam Howard slider in extra innings on Sunday – but I maintain that the skill is still there.
And I think we’re seeing the recognition from opposing pitchers, too. Last year, Hoerner saw pitchers attack him really conventionally: a lot of balls on the outer half, including breaking balls going away from him. This year, he’s being pitched inside far more often than young hitters usually are. They respect his ability to spit on those low-and-away spinners, and have adjusted accordingly.
4. The Dude Can Hit Any Fastball
Nico loves fastballs. You don’t have to watch him hit long to know that he’s waiting for them like a hawk, ready to attack. Early count, it’s the only thing he’ll swing at. With two strikes, he’ll swing at darn near every one he sees, in any location.
There’s a reason: Hoerner has seen 43 four-seam fastballs this year, and he’s yet to swing and miss at a single one.
A free note for opposing pitchers: don’t try and beat him with high heat. It’s futile. If I isolate fastballs (of any kind) that Hoerner has seen up in the zone, both inside the strike zone and above, he’s been fantastic. He has seen 32 such pitches: he’s taken 13 for balls and four called strikes, fouled off five, and put ten into play (three for hits; four at a 97+ exit velocity). No swings and misses.
5. Hoerner is Really Fast, But the Impact of that Speed is Subtle
In 118 games as a professional, Nico has 14 steals. In 29 games in the bigs, he’s yet to attempt one!
And yet, we have Statcast to tell us that he is indeed a burner. So far in 2020, Statcast is measuring Hoerner’s sprint speed at 28.5 feet per second, which places him in the top six percent in baseball, the 16th-fastest in the league. I’ve measured his home-to-first times from about 3.85-3.99 over various games this year, which puts him somewhere between plus- and plus-plus as a runner.
We hadn’t seen this skill really translate to winning yet, until last night:
According to FanGraphs, Hoerner has already produced 3 runs as a baserunner this year, but that’s only fifth-best on the team. As he continues to contribute to winning baseball in all facets, I think the Cubs need to encourage him to use that speed to become the team’s best baserunner.
6. There Are Signs of a Good Second Baseman Emerging
In my opinion, it’s still too early to talk with any expertise on Nico defensively. FanGraphs updated their defensive numbers yesterday, and Nico’s been playing at a +5.4 UZR/150 pace so far. That feels about right, but come on, it’s tiny. I think he works well in space in short right field in defensive shifts. I think he’s a bit better going to his left than his right. The instincts seem solid, and he even attempted a Javy-like tag earlier this year.
It’s worth reminding all that second base is still pretty new for Hoerner; he hasn’t played 250 innings there yet since leaving college. Like everything with Hoerner, we’re still learning about what he can be at second base, but my confidence is slowly solidifying regardless of the results.
