NEWSLETTER
Want to hear something crazy? Despite an almost comically rough start, the Chicago Cubs bullpen actually has a 3.38 ERA and 3.43 FIP in the month of August, spanning 45.1 innings pitched. That’s the 8th best ERA in MLB and fifth best in the National League. Perhaps even more encouraging, the Cubs ‘pen has an 8.2% walk rate since the beginning of August, also 8th best in MLB, and the 10th best ground ball rate (45.5%).
It took David Ross some time to settle on the right utilization, but the results have been significantly better of late. I still hope they go get an arm or two at the deadline, though …
Speaking of the Trade Deadline
Since the beginning of the pandemic and the advent of the 60-game season, the theory (proven more accurate everyday) is that the deadline is going to be extremely quiet this year for reasons I think are obvious. The good news for the Cubs (even with their recent bullpen success) is that I still think we’ll end up seeing some movement on quality relievers, as their greatest value remains largely in the postseason.
Even still – for the time being – this is probably going to be the only type of trade we see with any level of consistency:
Edgar García, who is mentioned in this story, is getting traded to the Rays for a PTBNL, according to a source. García was DFA'd last week. https://t.co/NZMahsVt5x
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) August 18, 2020
Lower-quality players in smaller deals, with perhaps more PTBNLs than ever (conditional, perhaps, on finishing the season?).
But that doesn’t mean people aren’t trying to push action:
Scott Boras: “So that deadline deals are not impacted by COVID, I am letting all owners know if any of our players are traded and asked to leave their existing teams’ protocols, we have arranged a private jet protocol to allow playes to be safely transported (between clubs).”
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 16, 2020
Kris Bryant famously said he would like to think he “wouldn’t be shipped out” in the middle of a pandemic, which is undoubtedly a feeling shared by many of his peers. But his own agent, Boras, has already tried to help ease those concerns.
Nonetheless, this deadline remains very different and it’s a hot topic around the league.
• Ken Rosenthal counts the way this deadline will be different at The Athletic, including some basic issues with scouting, a relative lack of pressure on front offices to make a move, the financial valleys experienced by nearly every team (though that COULD be a huge opportunity if big markets/deep-pocketed owners were only willing to take advantage (don’t hold your breath)), the shortened “rental” window, testing delays, far fewer sellers with more open playoff spots, the potential for players to opt-out, and a lot more. If you’re interested in the deadline, you’ll want to check this one out.
• Joel Sherman takes a similar angle, and when he asked 10 executives around baseball if there will be any action this deadline, only one gave the answer you’d hope to see. In addition to a lot of the same beats hit on by Rosenthal, Sherman points out that even those player-to-be-named later deals come with significant hurdles, seeing as most prospects are not playing right now. Picking the right ones without a whole year worth of data could prove especially daunting: “There is risk in trading assets for a player that you have very little current info on,” an AL assistant GM said. And on top of everything, cheap players and prospects have as much value as ever, given the expected financial hit most teams are taking.
• Of course, Jerry Dipoto thinks there will be action: “I do think you’re going to see a wide variety of outcomes [at this year’s Trade Deadline], but it’s likely to be a little bit more young-player-driven than normal trade markets …. I think you’re going to see a lot of the typical moves, where a pending free agent is moved on at the Trade Deadline, and then you’re going to see at least some rumblings about young player-for-young player ‘challenge’ deals.”
• Jon Morosi discussed four teams that could be especially creative at the deadline, including the Brewers, whom he believes still need to replace Lorenzo Cain (opt-out) on offense and defense. Frustratingly, Morosi suggests the Brewers young pitching assets, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes, as potentially useful to the Braves, whose top two prospects, Cristian Pache and Drew Waters, could be ideal targets. You’ll remember both as rumored center pieces in a deal for Kris Bryant over the offseason. It’ll suck very hard if the Brewers pull off a deal like this – maybe not this year, but definitely for the next five. Morosi also gets into the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Good rumor piece.
Postseason Bubble Considerations
MLB did not find a way to play this season in a bubble, but they could still look to try something of the sort for the playoffs. And according to Jeff Pass and Emily Kaplan, they’ve already begun drafting an operating manual laying out the mechanics.
According to the report, early rumors suggest a two-site bubble for the first two rounds of the postseason (remember there will be eight three-game Wild Card series and four Division series across both leagues this year), with Southern California and Texas emerging as the favorites, with New York and Chicago/Milwaukee also in the running – lots of stadiums in a short distance being the obvious goal.
I tend to think MLB will skew to more weather-certain destinations (California and Texas), but I would absolutely love if Chicago was one of the hubs – though you have to wonder if they’d get the requisite local government approval. In any case, ESPN covers most of the questions you might have about the idea.
Odds and Ends:
• The Reds and Royals game has been postponed in favor of a doubleheader on Wednesday. They haven’t played since Friday night, following Saturday’s positive COVID-19 test. Frankly, I’m happy to see MLB’s newly stricter reaction to even one positive test. I know it’s frustrating, but we simply cannot have another Marlins/Cardinals outbreak. It’s too disruptive.
• Speaking of the Royals, they’re calling up Matt Harvey – yes, that Matt Harvey – to the Major League roster. Part of the reason for his call up is former Cubs Mike Montgomery’s movement to the 45-day injured list (lat strain). It’s unclear if he’ll pitch again this season.
• This is just all the way infuriating, especially because it happened to Fernando Tatis Jr.:
His own manager wanted him to take a strike … what in the world, baseball. You're your own worst enemy sometimes.
Leave people like Tatis alone. They're the only reason people care about baseball.https://t.co/ojBAHvAmqK
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) August 18, 2020
