The NFL season actually gets underway tonight after a unique training camp situation and no preseason games. It’s weird, but in terms of the virus, it worked. Now, just as baseball and basketball did, the league finds out how it works when you actually start playing games. I hope for the players and the team and league personnel that this can work. The nature of football makes things – to me, at least – a little more scary, and I also worry a little bit about how the abbreviated/altered preseason could impact the prevalence of regular football injuries. But I can’t deny it: I’m happy to see another sport back, giving us something else to enjoy at the moment. (At least until Sunday when the Bears offense gains 2 yards the entire game …. )
• This is a great read from Sahadev Sharma on the whole “what’s wrong with Kris Bryant” thing, and while we know that there are injury issues and small sample fluke issues, there are also legitimate concerns with his discipline and how pitchers are attacking him:
Kris Bryant is usually ahead in the count regularly, something that's happening less than ever before for him this season. How are pitchers attacking him differently and how can he adjust? https://t.co/Up3EYWoKVE
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) September 10, 2020
• There’s a wholllle lot in there worth digging into, including how pitchers have moved up and in on him, but one thing that matches the eye test: Bryant is doing nothing when he is served up a fastball in the zone. He’s just off enough that he isn’t punishing those pitches, which obviously make up a substantial bit of a hitter’s power. And when that’s off, you not only hit for less power, but you hit for less average. You get attacked more in the zone, so you walk less. You get behind in counts, so you get even fewer of those pitches to drive in the first place. You strike out more. On and on. Again, there’s a whole lot more to it, but one truism in baseball is that when you aren’t punishing hittable pitches in the zone, it winds up having a multiplying effect on your other outcomes.
• To that end, it’s notable that Bryant is *also* getting really unlucky this year on how his strike zone is being called:
The 8 pitches called strikes up high are tied for most in the league with Belt despite Bryant ranking 80th in pitches seen in the upper part of the zone. Crazy https://t.co/87nSMItZPI
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) September 10, 2020
Small sample size…but the computer is telling us that umpires have been calling balls as strikes for Kris Bryant. This stuff is prone to substantial error, so it's not "extremely accurate" right now.
But basically…KB is getting unlucky.
(Click on the photo for the '18-'20) pic.twitter.com/ngmHmUdnrH
— Brendan Miller (@CubsRelated) September 9, 2020
• Because of the travel limitations, the Cubs (and other teams) have a very limited pool of umpires working their games. Maybe a few of these guys just have a strike zone that happens to play very poorly for Bryant, and that’s a contributing factor?
• Also, not specific to Bryant, but something notable about the whole team – if you thought the Cubs’ massive increase in passivity at the plate was noticeable this year, here’s your data:
Everyone is swinging less this year, maybe because of the unique nature of the second spring training. It’s remarkable, though, when you look at at the biggest team declines in swing rate, year to year: pic.twitter.com/5GXEJaJyHl
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) September 9, 2020
• Good lord. The third biggest drop in swing rate for a team in the last 20 years.
• I like that Darvish specified this planet, because there is no chance Bauer is the best pitcher on Zorgon-X18 (Jacob deGrombleminzstooor ftw):
"I gave up three runs in the first inning. That makes him more relaxed, maybe. He's a great pitcher. Even on this planet, I believe he's the best pitcher. So, I can't do that in the first inning." –Yu Darvish, on Trevor Bauer
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) September 10, 2020
• In all seriousness, Bauer was excellent last night. Not only did he have nasty stuff working, he was getting all the edge calls, so he used that, and his command was freaking absurd at those edges – that’s how you keep getting the edge calls. Combine that with Cubs batters who extended the zone, you had a pitcher was working the edge of the zone more than he ever has before:
69% of the pitches Trevor Bauer threw tonight were out of the strike zone, a career high. #Reds
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) September 10, 2020
• The combination of Bauer’s stuff, command, (spin), the strike zone, and some bats that go out of the zone … the Cubs never had a chance last night. And that really sucks to have been paired up against a Yu Darvish start that turned out to be another quality start, even after the three-run homer in the first.
• It doesn’t mean he’s joining the big league team soon, but lefty Andrew Chafin threw at Wrigley Field yesterday, rather than continuing to work at South Bend. Cubs staff getting an eyes-on, perhaps?
• More of the latest on the MLB-MiLB negotiations, and why it’s highly likely at this point that MLB is just going to be able to impose whatever structure it wants:
https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1303868322560307206
• Don’t miss out: each of our partners at DraftKings and FanDuel have no-brainer deals going on for tonight’s NFL opener. At DraftKings, you can get the Chiefs as 101 point underdogs, and at FanDuel, you can get the Chiefs at +2500. With sports gambling arriving in Illinois (and mobile signup available through September 18), they’re obviously making a huge push to get people signed up. Hence, the ridiculous deals, plus the huge sign-up bonuses. Thanks for checking them out, and you’re welcome for the no-brainers.