NEWSLETTER
We’re a week+ into the offseason now, and there has been almost no movement, aside from the options and qualifying offer decisions dictated by the schedule. We all know the reasons why – primarily: uncertainty about, and a recent lack of, revenues – but there’s a smaller part of the slowness worth noting: the continued lack of a decision on the rules for 2021.
For a big example, without knowing whether there’s going to be a designated hitter spot available in the National League, roster construction becomes more complicated. For another big example, without knowing the structure and size of the postseason, teams can’t have a great sense of where they currently fall on the competitiveness scale, and how much they need to do this offseason.
So, then, any traction on that stuff? Well, Jeff Passan answers that question as best he can today, tying the two topics together:
Is the DH even happening in the NL next year?
Still unclear. Players want it, sources said, but owners want the players to agree to expanded playoffs for the 2021 season in exchange. Understandably, the players don’t find that to be a particularly equitable trade. The complicating factor is that most front offices would love it. Going back to pitchers hitting after a full season in which they didn’t doesn’t register right, particularly when the issue is going to be adjudicated for good in a new collective-bargaining agreement after the 2021 season.
Some executives believe the universal DH will stick around, even if the MLBPA doesn’t agree to the expanded playoffs. What MLB would trade it for is unclear.
As Passan rightly surmises, giving up expanded postseason in exchange for the DH is a completely unfair trade. It’s like sending out a bunch of valuable pieces to take on an even worse contract. The league doesn’t even dislike the DH that much, so if they want expanded postseason in the deal, they’re going to have to give up something more.
Which is to say, ultimately, I wouldn’t make too much of this point just yet. We know that there will be much larger and broader negotiations about the 2021 season – bleeding into the post-2021 CBA negotiations, too – and we know that an expanded postseason is probably at the very top of the league’s wish list, just ahead of shrinking the size of the 2021 regular season to account for a likely lack of fans once again. And since the league wants it so badly, and since it’s something that winds up being very easy to quantify financially, I think the sides will get that one done … if they get anything done. Similarly, the DH worked out fine in 2020, and as much as the players want it, I really don’t believe the owners are going to resist it too strongly.
In other words, I want to see both the DH in the NL and (appropriately-sized and configured) expanded playoffs, and I think the league and the players are fine with both. Those aren’t going to be the issues that bring the negotiations to a standstill, even if they aren’t a simple one-for-one trade for each other. There are broader and more complex issues (like that season schedule thing, for example) that would really be the challenge in these negotiations.
