NEWSLETTER
This is all happening very fast. As these things do, especially with the Padres. Updates flowing as they come.
Just a few moments after a report that the Padres were still interested in Yu Darvish even after acquiring Blake Snell last night, a bombshell:
Even after landing Blake Snell, the Padres are deep into talks to acquire Yu Darvish from the Cubs, sources tell @PJ_Mooney, @sahadevsharma and me. If the deal is completed, multiple players would head to Chicago.
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) December 28, 2020
The fact that all three reporters are listed – San Diego and Chicago – and the fact that it includes the “if the deal is completed” line, means … well … this is happening. Unless it’s scuttled by a physical or something else, this is happening. And I’m freaking out.
On first blush, if the rumors that the Padres are landing Ha-Seong Kim are true, then it’s pretty easy to surmise that utilityman/second baseman Jake Cronenworth is coming to the Cubs in the deal (if it happens), as he’s a controllable high-contact bat. Cubs would want him.
From there, you’re talking about a still-loaded farm system, as well as some young big league pitchers like Adrian Morejon. The pieces are there for you to not absolutely hate a trade like this. Even if it makes you sad to think about losing Darvish.
UPDATE: A national report chimes in, and confirms Padres are not on the no-trade list:
Padres are trying for Yu Darvish even after the Snell deal. @dennistlin and @PJ_Mooney on it. Darvish has 12-team no-trade list but Padres are not on the list. Thus, they don’t need his approval for deal.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 28, 2020
UPDATE 2: Interesting that Padres have been targeting Darvish all along:
Darvish has been a target for the Padres since early in the offeason. There’s well-documented history here. A.J. Preller was key in scouting and recruiting Darvish for the Rangers.
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) December 28, 2020
Maybe that enhances the return? And certainly, I’d argue that once you have your other additions in place (Snell, Kim), it might make you even more aggressive to be assured you get your other target(s).
Realistic guess? Cronenworth, Myers (plus some cash), Morejon, and lesser prospect(s). Not necessarily gonna blow your hair back, but I could envision a scenario where the Cubs are better in the near and long-term after a deal like that, depending on what they do with the extra money available. Just sayin’.
UPDATE 3: OK, if things weren’t already nuts, they are getting even more nuts:
Have heard the same as Jon on this, that Caratini or Contreras could be in play as part of a Darvish deal from #Cubs to #Padres https://t.co/pKihuuyMjk
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 28, 2020
I don’t even want to think about the Cubs losing Darvish and Contreras in the same trade. But I will say that, yes, it’s an area of depth for the Cubs, as we’ve discussed. And yes, the Padres did just trade Mejia to the Rays. There’s some logic here. Obviously.
But man … if you’re dealing Darvish and a catcher … we should start talking about Gore.
Caratini, who catches Darvish, might make more sense, though. He’s valuable in his own right!
UPDATE 4: Just a thinking-out-loud update. This is all interrelated with the Snell and Kim deals. You can go get Darvish more aggressively if you know you have those guys secured. You can also trade Cronenworth at that point. You might want a catcher at that point if you’ve traded Mejia. You have to wait for Kim deal to be finalized (physical) before you can complete the interrelated moves, so that would be the hold-up, even if Cubs and Padres had “agreed” to a trade.
UPDATE 5: The full article is now out, and worth a read:
Cubs are deep in talks with the Padres on a trade for NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish. Story from @dennistlin, @PJ_Mooney and me. https://t.co/wWBpvTZ8Ut
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) December 28, 2020
The trade is described as a “complex deal” that isn’t yet at the finish line.
UPDATE 6: More local confirmation of the serious talks:
Updated story with more details on Padres' pursuit of #Cubs ace Yu Darvish https://t.co/HeHgXO1oUk via @MLBBruceLevine pic.twitter.com/3g7Zh3KmgF
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) December 28, 2020
As expected, the catcher involved – IF it happens – would be Caratini. The Cubs are reportedly looking at two Padres big leaguers (Cronenworth and Morejon? That’s my guess), and two prospects (wouldn’t be Gore or Abrams, I’d think).
UPDATE 7: I’m a big Campusano fan, but it would seem odd to target him, specifically, when his timeline is right there alongside Miguel Amaya’s:
Catcher Luis Campusano of the #Padres is one of the prospects being discussed in conversations with the #Cubs for ace Yu Darvish
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 28, 2020
Maybe the Cubs just love the bat, which projects excellently? He’s been rumored in connection to the Cubs before. Of note, Campusano is reportedly dealing with an offseason marijuana charge in Georgia.
UPDATE 8: Oh my. Phrasing getting stronger:
Framework is all but done between Padres and Cubs.
Yu Darvish could be part of Padres' rotation by end of the day. https://t.co/c7NLk9IvuY— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) December 28, 2020
Based on this from Acee, the deal is done, and it’s just down to finalizing the Snell deal and the Kim signing, and other medical reviews: “Those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, would not elaborate on the details of the deal but said the Padres have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs.”
UPDATE 9: Jesse Rogers was just on ESPN 1000, and suggested it would be five players coming to the Cubs for Darvish and Caratini. It would likely be younger prospects as the main component, Zach Davies, and maybe another big league pitcher. If the prospects include guys like Campusano and Robert Hassell? Well all right. We can talk about that.
UPDATE 10: Not a ton new here, other than an additional national person saying the deal is close:
Darvish deal to Padres appears close. Talks revolve around a 4 (or so)-for-2 deal w/Darvish’s personal catcher Caratini likely joining him for 2 going to SD. Cubs trying for some MLB experience in return, including needed pitching. @sdutKevinAcee @sahadevsharma @dennistlin on it
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 28, 2020
UPDATE 11: Note that Nightengale was the one who reported Campusano’s presence in the talks in the first place:
The #Padres are getting catcher Victor Caratini from the #Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade. Catcher Luis Campusano is staying in San Diego and is not part of the deal.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 29, 2020
Let me say, it’s not impossible to imagine a “fair” package here that doesn’t involve Gore, Abrams, or Campusano, but, uh, it becomes tricky to do it.
UPDATE 12: Just thinking out loud, in response to that 11th update. I’ve just been assuming out of hand that – for one of a few examples – Chris Paddack is off-limits. He is, right? Like, Pads wouldn’t be so down on him after the stub-2020 season that they’d include him in this deal? Because while, yes, his results were waaaay down over the 59.0 innings of 2020, he still has alarmingly good stuff. If he were involved, then it kinda changes this whole discussion. So, again, that’s a big part of why I’m assuming he’s not involved?
UPDATE 13: There’s a name from Jonathan Mayo:
Sources tell me that there are still moving parts in @Cubs – @Padres deal involving Yu Darvish. But I’m told Zach Davies plus several prospects are in deal going to Chicago, including 2020 2nd-rd @MLBDraft pick Owen Caissie.
— Jonathan Mayo (@JonathanMayo) December 29, 2020
Caissie, 17 when he was drafted, is out of Canada, and was signed for under slot as the 45th overall pick.
If the structure is Davies plus prospects – and only prospects – then you’d rule out all of Cronenworth, Paddack, and Morejon … but patience for now. Actually, I can’t. I’m gonna give into the reactionary demons, because it’s just impossible not to: it would be odd if Caissie gets identified first even if there are multiple much more high-profile prospects in the deal, eh?
UPDATE 14: Implication here is five players going to Cubs. Davies, Caissie, + + + … where you’re hoping those final three are, um, quite strong:
Confirmed that #Padres starter Zach Davies will be going to the #Cubs in 7-player Yu Darvish trade.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 29, 2020
UPDATE 15: Another name you probably don’t know:
It's close. May even be done.
Hearing Zach Davies, 17-year-old SS Reginald Preciado (Padres No.11 prospect) and 18 year-old OF Owen Caissie (No. 13) headed to Cubs as part of Yu Darvish deal.
Davies the one major leaguer going to the Cubs. Deal also involves two other prospects— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) December 29, 2020
Preciado was a big IFA signing in 2019 for the Padres. Another very good prospect in a good system, but, again, not necessarily a headliner like you’d expect.
UPDATE 16: Could explain why people can’t name the other players in the deal yet. Maybe they aren’t Padres:
Cubs and Padres continue to discuss Darvish deal, but I’m hearing there are “moving parts” involved that could include yet another Padres trade. With multiple deals, multiple players involved, medicals, etc, a source said there seem to be “a lot of balls in the air” right now.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 29, 2020
UPDATE 17: Not necessarily another team directly implicating the Cubs. Because this report has the final two names as straight prospects:
The other two are Ismael Mena and Yeison Santana. https://t.co/Ks9GPmsw6E
— Jeff Sanders (@sdutSanders) December 29, 2020
Both Mena and Santana are well-regarded prospects, but like Caissie and Preciado, they are extremely young. This is such a weird package as presently suggested.
