NEWSLETTER
You know what’s the absolute worst and happens every year? The day off after the first game of the regular season. It’s such a tease. Baseball finally comes back after a grueling offseason (more grueling for Cubs fans than most this year, I reckon), and then POOF! it’s gone again. And this year will be even worse.
The Cubs first game of the season (at home against the Pirates) is on a Thursday at 1:20 (love it), but then they’re off on Friday. I *love* Friday afternoon baseball, but we won’t get it until three weeks into the regular season. The Cubs and Pirates get back in action on Saturday, but I’d prefer they just start on Friday with three straight. Waiting an extra day is just better than starting and stopping. Just one man’s humble opinion.
Cardinals Injuries and Timelines
The Cardinals are dealing with a couple of key injuries this spring, most notably with starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who missed all of 2020 after surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right forearm and is currently dealing with a “creaky” right shoulder. Mikolas was supposed to throw a bullpen session yesterday, but just went through the motions and was ultimately pushed back to Wednesday.
And now, there seems to be a little disconnect between the coaching staff and the front office on the progress.
• Manager Mike Shildt: “We just made what I think is an adult decision,” Shildt said. “We don’t need to push to be pushing, we don’t need to throw a bullpen [session] just to check it off.”
• President John Mozeliak: “There has to be a sense of urgency if we expect him to be active by the time his turn in the rotation comes … I think if all goes well [in his bullpen session], there’s a chance he could break with the club when we head north. But the clock is ticking ….”
If Mikolas is out to start the year (which feels plenty possible), the Cardinals rotation will likely run Jack Flaherty, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Adam Wainwright … Carlos Martines(?), Daniel Ponce de Leon(?), Alex Reyes(?), John Gant(?). Basically, the point here is they’ve got a LOT of question marks, even if they have plenty of theoretical talent. And that’s assuming Wainwright still has more left in the tank, which isn’t a great bet. Probably shoulda signed Jake Odorizzi …
Other important Cardinal injury updates:
• Harrison Bader is dealing with a “barking” right forearm (what is with these adjectives?), and has been out of action entirely for almost a week. He’s projected for roughly 2.0 WAR as the Cardinals starting center fielder in 2021.
• Jordan Hicks, the Cardinals hard-throwing closer who had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and then opted out of the 2020 season, has not pitched in a game yet, but has faced live hitters twice. He is eyeing a “B” game on Wednesday, though, before making his Grapefruit League debut later in the week. Given his distance post-surgery, I expect him to contribute this season, but the question of his timeline and overall effectiveness is up in the air, especially after the extra long layoff.
Revenue Sharing Among Teams
In 2019, MLB teams shared more than $400 million in revenues between teams as part of the long-standing revenue sharing agreement (basically a way for bigger market teams to help smaller market teams, and increase parity). Last season, however, the program was paused (for the first time in 25 years) and not a single dollar was moved, thanks to the pandemic impact on revenues.
Well, revenue sharing is returning in 2021, but with a couple huge twists, and, naturally, a giant murky misunderstanding.
First, only 50% of the money that would normally be paid out is going to be available to teams. The other half will be paid in 2022. And second, the 50% burden that *is* available this year will not be paid out by the teams, but by a line of credit assumed by the league.
Here’s where things get all MLB-y: The league believes that large market teams will be paying back their shares of the loan that’s being paid out this season. But executives from large market teams disagree: “They can say whatever they want for politics, the understanding is it’ll never be paid back,” an executive told The Athletic.
To be more specific, the executive believes that any loan the commissioner’s office takes out “represents a 1/30th contribution from every team on a debt sheet.” So extrapolating out, this is not an argument between the large market clubs and the commissioner’s office *as well as* the large market clubs and the small market clubs. All the while, the Players Association has skin in the game, having collectively bargained for it in the first place (increases spending on players, in theory). They also currently have a grievance filed against the A’s, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays for not spending their prior revenue sharing dollars appropriately.
And the CBA is up at the end of the year. This is just more problematic money stuff for a sport that doesn’t need these issues.
There’s much more to it than that – so go read for yourself – but, yes, this is just one more fight to add to the pile.
Astros Pitching Woes
The Astros were the team to finally go out and sign one of the last remaining significant free agents, Jake Odorizzi, this offseason, and I’m starting to understand why.
First, Framber Valdez (3.57 ERA, 2.85 FIP in 2020) went down with a fractured left ring finger on a ball off the bat of Francisco Lindor, and he might miss the season. And now, their top overall prospect Forrest Whitley might need Tommy John surgery. Ouch.
(Oh, and Justin Verlander had Tommy John surgery last September, so he’ll miss the entire season, too).
Top #Astros prospect Forrest Whitley might need TJ surgery.https://t.co/TPIBQaUzBG
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) March 7, 2021
Whitley is waiting for a second opinion on the UCL sprain, but rarely does that leave to better news in these situations. Further complicating matters is that because there was no minor league season last year, surgery in 2021 year would mean two straight years without game action for their top pitching prospect. That hurts.
How Good is Juan Soto?
I’m not entirely sure why, but I feel like Juan Soto doesn’t entirely get the credit he deserves.
But on second thought …
Everyone always gets so mad at me when I say Juan Soto is Ted Williams.
Here's @jaysonst with a good reminder that … Juan Soto is Ted Williams. https://t.co/KNWjydvIgs pic.twitter.com/WLEu7ZjV6k
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 8, 2021
Using data, quotes, scouts, coaches, and more, Jayson Stark makes a compelling argument for the greatness of Juan Soto. Obviously, comparing him to one of the greatest hitters of all-time is a tall order, but the number are where and what they are. With that said, anyone can be Ted Williams for a season or two. The tricky part is doing it for two decades. We’ll have to wait and see.
Odds and Ends
• Well this is extremely fun: Ichiro Suzuki, 47, showed up to Mariners camp for a simulated game:
You never know what you might see in a sim game. pic.twitter.com/m57S8JPHwL
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) March 8, 2021
• Hey, did you remember that Mark Prior is the Dodgers pitching coach? He’s got some nice things to say about their big free agent signing Trevor Bauer:
.@Dodgers pitching coach #MarkPrior loving what he sees from @BauerOutage so far ⚾️
Full interview on @PetrosAndMoney: https://t.co/86QNPCaR6A pic.twitter.com/Voom2nAhqp
— AM 570 LA Sports (@AM570LASports) March 4, 2021
• Okay, this is one hell of a play. The effort, the flip (from that distance), the accuracy … that’s just good baseball:
Oh my José Iglesias! pic.twitter.com/1A3ISMxIGr
— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) March 7, 2021
• Stay tuned:
Francisco Lindor, Mets extension talks are expected to begin in earnest this week. Opening Day is at least a soft deadline, so figure about 24 days to get it done.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 8, 2021
