NEWSLETTER
It was our working theory that staying “game ready” during an 18+ month absence of competitive baseball was going to be a lot easier for pitchers than for hitters. While throwing off a mound is not a substitute for pitching to a batter in a game, it sure felt like the difference between pitchers doing that and working with the data, and for hitters to find whoever they could to take swings and/or hit off machines, was going to be a really significant chasm.
Sure enough, the data from the first couple weeks of real minor league baseball since August and September of 2019 suggests the pitchers are way ahead of the hitters, and there is considerable rust all over (especially on defense).
Here’s a great read from Baseball America on just this:
So what have the first two weeks of the minor league season shown us?
There are many aspects of baseball that can only be improved in real live games. The rust around the minors right now is REALLY apparent.https://t.co/5vMuxYUpDz
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) May 17, 2021
41% of all minor league plate appearances are ending in a strikeout, walk or HBP.
The MLB rate is 34%.@jjcoop36 has more on a less-than-aesthetically-pleasing start to the MiLB season. https://t.co/IWvt51Qddp pic.twitter.com/Gh1j1tIAw3
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 17, 2021
The average walk rate in the minors right now is over 11% and the average strikeout rate is over 28%! It’s just going to take time for this to approximate “normal” baseball, even in a world where both of those numbers were climbing anyway. That strikeout rate in particular, man. Wow.
That, in turn, is a reminder that as much as we’re going to want to sprint to love over Cubs pitching prospects who’ve “popped” during the shutdown, we’re going to need to see them sustain it over a much longer period of time. Seeing raw improvements – higher velo, more movement, better spin, etc. – is obviously a great sign of real development, but on the results side of the ledger, we’ll just have to be careful. Because the hitters they’re facing (and the defenses they’re playing in front of) might not be truly game ready for some time yet. I will try to keep this in mind.
And, by the way, the same applies to the hitters. I’ve been thinking about it a lot in the specific context of a guy like Ed Howard, the Cubs’ top draft pick last year, who basically hasn’t played competitive games since his junior year of high school in 2019. To go from that, to a nearly two-year shutdown, to facing full-season A-ball pitching (which has been better able to stay sharp during that shutdown!) is a herculean ask. Of course he’s going to struggle. But he isn’t the only guy for whom that kind of context is necessary. So, much like with the pitching, we just have to remind ourselves to track the trends and developments over the course of the season, rather than leaping to much in the way of conclusions here in May or even June.
Believe me: I’m right up there among the worst at it. When prospects do stuff, I want to leap. I can’t help it. And when we haven’t had minor league baseball for so long, the urge to jump all over stats – finally! we have minor league stats again! – is sometimes overwhelming. I’ll try to do my best to resist it for a while longer.
