More Free Agent Contract Projections: The Shortstops, Senga, Contreras, Rodon, Conforto, Kiermaier, More

Of the free agent contract projections lists, the FanGraphs one is annually my favorite, because it comes with two layers: the writer’s *AND* a crowdsourced estimate. I’m not going to say there is always wisdom in the crowd of baseball fans, but among FanGraphs readers, if you bundle them all together and take the average contract guesses, I tend to think there’s some value there.

Here’s the FanGraphs list of the top 50 free agents with contract estimates from both Ben Clemens and the crowd. Lots to digest in there, but I thought I’d just offer up some reactions …

  • Generally speaking, the crowd seems pretty light on a lot of these, especially the shortstops. Just 7/$210M for Trea Turner? 8/$256M for Carlos Correa? 6/$168M for Xander Bogaerts? 6/$141M for Swanson? I would take the over on all of those when it comes to the final guarantee. But, hey, if the Cubs could get any of those four on those deals, I’d be ecstatic.

  • The crowd exactly agreed with my guess on a Kodai Senga contract, at four years and $60 million. Clemens was at four and $56 million. I know there’s plenty of transitional risk to MLB, but that seems like an outstanding use of money to me. Hopefully the Cubs press and close.

  • Both Clemens and the crowd see Willson Contreras getting four years, with Clemens at $20M AAV and the crowd at $17.7M AAV. I think Contreras would be very happy to get a deal in that range.

  • Another projected five-year deal for Carlos Rodon ($24 to $27M AAV in this one), which seems to be the consensus at this point. I think he gets it, and the team that gives it to him may find themselves with an ace for three or four of the next five seasons, or they may find that he breaks. That’s kinda the polar possible outcomes for him, and it’s just a question of which organization has the stomach for the risk.

  • If Michael Conforto were really going to get only one year and $12 million, as projected, I wonder if there’s any chance at all that he could play center field (gives the Cubs a lefty bat, and a short-term CF option). He hasn’t done it in a few years, and obviously he missed all of last season following the shoulder injury, so there are loads of questions. But might be a decent low-cost, one-year risk.

  • Speaking of center field, Kevin Kiermaier’s glove is pegged at two years and $8 to $10M AAV, which strikes me as a little steep for a glove-first guy coming off missed time. Still, I hope the Cubs give him a look, and if there’s a one-year deal to be had, it might be a perfect short-term fit.

  • Christian Vazquez is absolutely going to do better than his 2/$16M projection, but if that’s where he actually landed, the Cubs need to be ALL OVER that.

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Feb 06, 2025

Another Ranking Places the Cubs’ Farm System Close to the Middle of the Pack Going Into 2025

The tale is not as old as time, but it's as old as this prospects rankings season goes: the Chicago Cubs' farm system stepped way back over the last year, for reasons good and bad, and now ranks as closer to average than anything near elite. The latest iteration of that story comes from Baseball America, which ranked the Cubs' farm system 15th in baseball heading into 2025: "15. Chicago...

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Bader and PCA, Pham and Pirates, No Festa Forever, Brasier and Berti, Rays Stadium, and Other Cubs Bullets

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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MLB Rumors and Pete Alonso

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Chicago Cubs
Michael Cerami
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The Cubs Have a New Full-time Backup to Jon Sciambi on Marquee (And I’m Very Here For It!)

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Chicago Cubs
Michael Cerami
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The 2025 Cubs Spring Training Broadcast Schedule Is Here

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Chicago Cubs
Michael Cerami
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The Latest Set of Playoff Odds Are Not NEARLY As Bullish on the 2025 Cubs

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Feb 05, 2025

Nico Hoerner is Throwing!

Great news today, spotted by Rich Biesterfeld out in Arizona, where Nico Hoerner is playing catch. Weโ€™ve got Nico Hoerner playing catch today at Cubs Camp! pic.twitter.com/VIccpz38U6— Rich Biesterfeld (@biest22) February 5, 2025 We had no idea on a precise timeline for Hoerner, but seeing him on the field, doing work, and making throws with some intent on February 5 seems like a very good sign. Hoerner, 27,ย dealt with a...

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Feb 05, 2025

Fun (and Funny (and Sad)) Exercise: How Good Would the White Sox Be with Ohtani, Judge, and Skubal?

I don't know that any of us NEEDED additional context for just how bad the 2025 Chicago White Sox project to be, but I'm very, very glad FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski decided to give it to us anyway. Basically, Szymborski wondered what would happen to the AL Central projected standings, via ZiPS, if he took Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Tarik Skubal away from their current teams and then gave them...

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Chicago Cubs
Brett Taylor
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Cardinals Have Reportedly Had Recent Talks with the Red Sox About a Nolan Arenado Trade

I probably could've put this one under the "Obsessive Alex Bregman Watch" banner, because there are clear implications for that story, too. But, since the impacts to the NL Central and the Cardinals would be more immediate (and guaranteed) in the event of a Nolan Arenado trade, I focus on that part first: The Red Sox and Cardinals have had recent communication about Nolan Arenado, source says. If the trade...

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Chicago Bears
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Shane Waldron Has Reportedly Found a Soft Landing With the Jacksonville Jaguars

Former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has found a new place of employment. Three months after being dismissed as the Bears' offensive play-caller, ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler reports that the Jacksonville Jaguars have scooped up Waldron to work on new head coach Liam Coen's staff. And while this isn't the Bears-to-Jaguars story that we were looking forward to seeing this morning, I suppose it will have to suffice:...

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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The NFL is Sending the Rams to Play a “Home” Game in Australia in 2026

The NFL's global reach is extending out to the land down under. ESPN league insider Adam Schefter reports the Los Angeles Rams will be the designated home team when they play in Australia in 2026: As the designated home team in Australia in 2026, the Rams will play their game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG). https://t.co/2WApFU2woI— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 5, 2025 When I first saw the news from...

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Chicago Bears 2024 Exit Interviews: Terell Smith

The nightmare that was the 2024 Chicago Bears season is over. Before the transactional period starts and the roster changes begin, we will recap the seasons of most of the 53-man roster. Next up: We're looking at the 2024 season of Terell Smith. Terell Smith's 2024 Snapshot Ryan Poles' tenure as Chicago Bears general manager has been one full of extremes. The trade that resulted in DJ Moore, Caleb Williams,...

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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All Eyes Are On Trey Smith at the Super Bowl

There are many reasons to tune in to watch Super Bowl LIX, but Trey Smith is at the top of my list. The Kansas City Chiefs starting right guard is a player to keep tabs on in Sunday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles. I have had my eyes on Smith as a possible target for a Chicago Bears team seeking to upgrade the offensive line this offseason for quite some...

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Chicago Bears
Patrick K. Flowers
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josh Blackwell bears packers

Chicago Bears 2024 Exit Interviews: Josh Blackwell

The nightmare that was the 2024 Chicago Bears season is over. Before the transactional period starts and the roster changes begin, we will recap the seasons of most of the 53-man roster. Next up: We're looking at the 2024 season of Josh Blackwell. Josh Blackwell's 2024 Snapshot Josh Blackwell's 2024 season will best be remembered for his punt return touchdown in Week 18's victory over the Green Bay Packers at...

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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Kevin warren, Ryan Poles, Ben Johnson, George mccaskey

Kevin Warren Was *THE* Difference Maker in Ben Johnson Coming to the Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears President Kevin Warren deserves a fist bump for his efforts in the team's landing of new head coach Ben Johnson. In an interview with the CHGO squad at the Super Bowl LIX site, ESPN's Courtney Cronin sheds some light on how important Bears President Kevin Warren was to the team's successful pursuit of hiring Ben Johnson as its new head coach: How much impact do you think Kevin...

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Chicago Bears
Patrick K. Flowers
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Ryan Bates Bears

Chicago Bears 2024 Exit Interviews: Ryan Bates

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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Jaquan brisker bears safety

Jaquan Brisker Says He is Cleared to Return to Football Action

The 2025 NFL regular season won't kick off until September. Preseason games will not take place until August. And it won't be until July when training camps begin opening their doors around the league. But offseason workout programs begin in April. Perhaps when those start taking place, we'll see Jaquan Brisker's return to organized football activities. 2025 NFL IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER Brisker, who will be entering his fourth year...

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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Saquon Confirms Bears Rumors, Doors Opening For Cunningham? and Other Wednesday Bullets

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Chicago Bears
Luis C. Medina
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devin hester bears

Tony Dungy Has a Funny Story About Devin Hester’s Super Bowl Kick Return TD

It was on this date 18 years ago when Devin Hester made NFL history. Hester's Super Bowl XLI-opening kick-return touchdown is the stuff of legends at this point. And after making it to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, we can say โ€”ย with confidence โ€”ย that it is the signature moment of the iconic long-time Chicago Bears standout's Hall of Fame career. But did you know that it has a funny...

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Chicago Bulls
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Sounds Like Nikola Vucevic is An Option For the Warriors Even After Jimmy Butler Trade

Buckle up and hold onto your hats! It's deadline day, everybody! We have about five hours remaining until the NBA trade deadline at 2:00 PM central time. The biggest moves have likely come and gone with Jimmy Butler, Zach LaVine, De'Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, Luka Doncic, and Anthony Davis all having been dealt. However, the Chicago Bulls still have Nikola Vucevic and a few more pieces to potentially ship off,...

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NOT DONE YET: Lakers Trade a HAUL to Hornets for Big Man Mark Williams

The Los Angeles Lakers have made another big move ahead of the NBA trade deadline. According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the Lakers have acquired 23-year-old center Mark Williams from the Charlotte Hornets. The towering big man heads to the West Coast in exchange for a sizable package of Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish, a 2030 pick swap, and an unprotected 2031 first-round pick. Williams is in the thick of a career...

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Chicago Bulls
Matt Rooney
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Pelicans Send Brandon Ingram to Raptors in ANOTHER Big Deadline Trade

Can't these teams wait to break news until the morning?! ESPN's Shams Charania is at it again tonight. Just as we were all heading to bed, the insider reported that the New Orleans Pelicans are shipping Brandon Ingram to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Bruce Brown Jr, Kelly Olynyk, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick. https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1887360828002718034 Raptors Pick Up Brandon Ingram From Pelicans The Pelicans had been trying...

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Chicago Bulls
Elias Schuster
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Box Score & Player Grades: Timberwolves 127, Bulls 108 โ€“ February 5, 2025

The nice thing about my job is that I can be brutally honest about the fact that I barely watched this game. To be clear, I was firmly planted in front of my television and ready to watch Anthony Edwards single-handedly dismantle the Bulls (and, boy, did he). But then Matas Buzelis was named a starter ... and Jimmy Butler was traded to the Warriors ... and Lonzo Ball reached...

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Chicago Bulls
Elias Schuster
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Feb 05, 2025
Lonzo Ball of the Chicago Bulls

BREAKING: Chicago Bulls Sign Lonzo Ball to Two-Year Extension (UPDATED: Good or Bad Move?)

The Chicago Bulls have reportedly reached an extension with Lonzo Ball on the eve of the NBA trade deadline. Amid ongoing trade rumors surrounding the veteran point guard, Chicago Sports Network's K.C. Johnson was the first to share that Ball was finalizing the deal. The extension will reportedly be worth $20.0 million over the next two years. Johnson also reported live during the Bulls' battle with the Timberwolves on Wednesday...

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Chicago Bulls
Elias Schuster
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TRADE: Warriors Acquire Jimmy Butler from Heat, Sign Him to an Extension (Bulls Impact)

The Golden State Warriors have landed Jimmy Butler. After months of reports about the organization wanting to upgrade Stephen Curry's supporting cast, the franchise has made a move for one of the hottest names on the market. According to Shams Charania of ESPN, the Warriors will send Andrew Wiggins, a first-round pick, and more to the Miami Heat. Here are the reported trade details via ESPN: Warriors get ... Jimmy...

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Chicago Bulls
Elias Schuster
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Matas Buzelis Earns First Start Following Career-High Night

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Chicago Bulls
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Pre-Gaminโ€™: Bulls at Timberwolves (7:00 CT) โ€“ Projected Lineups, How to Watch, More

It's Matas' team now. https://www.bleachernation.com/bulls/2025/02/05/gs-nikola-vucevic-wire/ Game Info Chicago Bulls (22-29) at Minnesota Timberwolves (27-23) โ€“ 7:00 p.m. CT on Chicago Sports Network (TV) andย 670 The Scoreย (Radio) Lineups Chicago Bulls Coby White Ayo Dosunmu Josh Giddey Patrick Williams Nikola Vucevic Minnesota Timberwolves Mike Conley Anthony Edwards Jaden McDaniels Naz Reid Rudy Gobert Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports Odds Chicago comes into todayโ€™s game as an 11.5-point underdog against Minnesota atย DraftKings...

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Chicago Bulls
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NBA Trade Rumors: Kevin Durant Doesn’t Want To Leave … But Does That Matter? Warriors New Plan, More

We're less than 24 hours until the NBA Trade Deadline, and the two biggest fish on the market are still out there! Will Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler get dealt? Will they be swapped for one another? Can the Warriors manage to bring one of them to The Bay? We still have a whole lot of questions to be answered before 2:00 PM CT tomorrow, so let's unpack the latest...

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Chicago Bulls
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Nikola Vucevic Trade Rumors: Will Warriors Bring It Down to the Wire? Did His Value Just Improve?

He loves me ... loves me not ... he loves me ... he loves me not. The Golden State Warriors continue to play with the Chicago Bulls' hearts as the NBA's trade deadline nears. Their reported interest in Nikola Vucevic dates back weeks, and he has been coined as one of their top targets numerous times. However, with the team sitting 11th in the Western Conference and the reality of...

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Chicago Blackhawks
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Feb 06, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Kyle Davidson

NHL Insider Talks Blackhawks Trade Buzz, Rantanen Trade Fallout, Future Contract Strategy

On Thursday morning, Elliotte Friedman dropped a loaded written version of his "32 Thoughts" and there are some good Blackhawks-centric nuggets in there. Here's what got my attention: Blackhawks trade buzz I noted in my bullets this morning that there were 14 teams represented in the press box scouting the Blackhawks-Oilers game. Friedman notes a light schedule and the looming two-week break meant there was plenty of attention in Chicago...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Jason Dickinson Chicago Blackhawks

Dickinson Concern, More Bedard Criticism, Scouts Galore, 49 for Lardis, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

The Blackhawks lost a hard fought game to the Oilers in overtime last night. They showed a lot of mettle, battling back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to tie the game late. But a bad penalty in overtime cost them the second point in the standings. The result of the game last night isn't much of a concern if we're honest. What is a major concern is...

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Chicago Blackhawks
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Aidan Thompson DU University of Denver

Blackhawks College Prospects: Ranked Matchups, Beanpot Championship on Tap

We're now into February, and Blackhawks prospects continue to put up solid numbers across college hockey. There are some really good ranked matchups this weekend, with Denver and Providence both playing important conference matchups. And, Monday night, Boston University will face Boston College in a hyped Beanpot championship game. Here's this weekend's schedule for the Blackhawks' prospects in action. And, again, make sure you vote every day for one of...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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The good news when a game starts at almost 9 PM local is the first period flew by and neither team scored. With a little under eight minutes left in the first period, this ridiculous sequence by Arvid Sรถderblom and Connor Murphy kept the game tied at zeroes. Oh my Arvid Soderblom, what a saveMurphy helps out too with a stop of his own pic.twitter.com/Wu11sUNd07— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) February 6, 2025...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Blackhawks vs Oilers โ€” Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Feb 05, 2025

New NHL Players Poll Offers Interesting Results

On Wednesday morning The Athletic released the results of their informal, anonymous NHL player poll. They asked the usual range of questions, from coaches players would/would not want to play for, which cities would be on a no-trade list and whether or not Gary Bettman should retire from his role as commissioner of the NHL. And there were a few interesting results. Here the ones that got my attention: Ordinarily...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Feb 05, 2025

Smith Returns, Mentor Martinez, Nazar’s Defense, Prospect Rankings, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

The Blackhawks are back in action tonight with Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in town. Based on practice the last couple days, it appears Craig Smith will return to the lineup and the Blackhawks will hope to rekindle the magic he had with Lukas Reichel and Pat Maroon on a line together. Which means Colton Dach will be the odd man out. Again, based on practice the last couple...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Feb 05, 2025
Frank Nazar Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks Prospect Pool Climbing Rankings

At The Athletic, Scott Wheeler has been providing his mid-season pipeline rankings of the 32 NHL franchises. What I like most about the prospect evaluation that takes place at The Athletic is the very different views and evaluations of prospects we get from Wheeler and Corey Pronman; they aren't writing in unison and often don't agree on a prospect's potential/ceiling. That is certainly the case with a number of Blackhawks...

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Chicago Blackhawks
Tab Bamford
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Kevin Korchinski 2025 AHL All-Star Game MVP

All-Star MVP Korchinski, HB Savoir-Faire, Red on the Road, Trade Buzz, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

First off today, happy birthday to Savoir-Faire, Denis Savard. Savvy turns 64 today. His 1,096 for the Blackhawks still rank fourth in the history of the organ-I-zation, trailing only Stan Mikita (1,467), Patrick Kane (1,225) and Bobby Hull (1,153). I will note that his long-time winger, Steve Larmer, still ranks fifth (923). That duo, with Al Secord on the other wing, was dynamite in the 1980s and a big reason...

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation. You can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation, on Bluesky at @Brett-Taylor, and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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Player prop bet odds for Deni Avdija, Domantas Sabonis and others are available when the Portland Trail Blazers host the Sacramento Kings at Moda Center on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET.How to Watch Trail Blazers vs. KingsDate: Thursday, February 6,...

Top Player Prop Bets for Lakers vs. Warriors on February 6, 2025

LeBron James and Stephen Curry are two of the top players with prop bets for the taking when the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors square off at Crypto.com Arena on Thursday (tipping at 10:00 PM ET).How to...

Top Player Prop Bets for Nuggets vs. Magic on February 6, 2025

Those looking to place a player prop bet can find odds on Nikola Jokic, Franz Wagner and others in the Denver Nuggets-Orlando Magic matchup at Ball Arena on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET.How to Watch Nuggets vs. MagicDate: Thursday, February...

Shane Waldron Has Reportedly Found a Soft Landing With the Jacksonville Jaguars

Former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has found a new place of employment. Three months after being dismissed as the Bears' offensive play-caller, ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler reports that the Jacksonville Jaguars have scooped up Waldron to work...

Sounds Like Nikola Vucevic is An Option For the Warriors Even After Jimmy Butler Trade

Buckle up and hold onto your hats! It's deadline day, everybody! We have about five hours remaining until the NBA trade deadline at 2:00 PM central time. The biggest moves have likely come and gone with Jimmy Butler, Zach LaVine,...

NHL Insider Talks Blackhawks Trade Buzz, Rantanen Trade Fallout, Future Contract Strategy

On Thursday morning, Elliotte Friedman dropped a loaded written version of his "32 Thoughts" and there are some good Blackhawks-centric nuggets in there. Here's what got my attention: Blackhawks trade buzz I noted in my bullets this morning that there...

Fritz vs. Shapovalov Prediction at the Dallas Open – Thursday, February 6

On Thursday, Denis Shapovalov (No. 54 in the world) meets Taylor Fritz (No. 4) in the Round of 16 at the Dallas Open.In this matchup, Fritz is the favorite (-350) against Shapovalov (+260) .Dallas Open InfoTournament: The Dallas OpenRound: Round...

Opelka vs. Norrie Prediction at the Dallas Open – Thursday, February 6

Reilly Opelka (No. 145 ranking) will meet Cameron Norrie (No. 63) in the Round of 16 of the Dallas Open on Thursday, February 6.Opelka is favored over Norrie, with -130 odds against the underdog's +100.Dallas Open InfoTournament: The Dallas OpenRound:...

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