NEWSLETTER
This year, the Padres will pay Manny Machado $30 million for his fifth season in San Diego. After that, Machado will have the option to stick with the Padres at 5 years/$150 million starting in 2024, or opt-out and re-enter free agency. Kind of a no-brainer for the 2022 NL MVP runner-up given the current market conditions and general labor peace.
Indeed, yesterday, Machado announced that he does intend to opt-out of his contract at the end of the 2023 season. But today, we’re getting a lot more details on exactly how that decision went down and what (little) the Padres did to prevent it.
At the San Diego Union Tribune, Kevin Acee reports the following facts, confirmed by Machado, himself:
So what does that mean? Well, it’s educational in a lot of ways. For one, it sure seems to suggest the Padres weren’t all that serious about extending Machado. Even setting aside the terms of the deal, itself, waiting just two days before his deadline is a little insulting.
That goes double after spending as much as they did this offseason:
“…given the timeline and evidence to date, it is difficult to draw any conclusion other than that the Padres are only slightly interested in keeping Machado. At the least, they are only interested in keeping him on their terms and are willing to risk letting him walk.
The Padres knew before offering Turner $342 million over 11 years and letting Judge know they were willing to pay him $40 million per year for a decade that Machado intended to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract if he did not get a reworked deal. They also knew it before they signed Bogaerts for $280 million and before they committed $108 million to Darvish over the next six years.
Their prerogative. But in doing so, the team seems to have made its priorities clear.”
Agreed.
So what does it mean going forward?
Had Machado accepted the Padres offer, he’d basically begin an 11-year, $285M deal in 2023, which amounts to $5M more than the Padres just gave Xander Bogaerts. Sounds great at first blush, but that’s not really the full picture. After all, Machado is ALREADY going to make $30M in 2023 no matter what. The real calculus for his camp, then, is whether he thinks he’ll be able to beat 10 years and $255M next offseason.
Given his recent trajectory and the current market, that seems like a very good bet. That’s why this offer wasn’t particularly serious. It was just good enough to look like they tried. But digging in on the overall value and timing, it’s not hard to miss what Acee implies: The Padres were okay with him not accepting the deal.
Which, hey, that’s up to them. This is a team that already has Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Ha-Seong Kim capable of high-quality infield performances. And with Juan Soto in the outfield, they’re hardly hurting for offensive production either. I’m not here to pass judgement on the Padres. I’m just watching from afar and soaking it all in.
More specifically, we’ll have to keep that level ($10/$255M) in mind throughout the season and into next winter. Because if Machado has a typical Machado year, that’s what he’ll be looking to beat. And since we know the Cubs will likely be looking for help at third base (on the off chance one of their many projects at the position don’t work out…. Edwin Rios, Nick Madrigal, Chris Morel, Patrick Wisdom), that’s good to keep in mind.
I still don’t envision Jed Hoyer laying out that much money for Machado at that point in his career. But again, there are other, more realistic options out there (Matt Chapman) and Machado’s presence and asking price will be a factor.
