NEWSLETTER
In his first fourteen starts with the Chicago Cubs, right-hander Jameson Taillon was an absolute disaster. Through July 2, he managed to post just one quality start and had failed to complete the fifth inning six times. With ink still wet on his four-year/$68M deal, it was about as bad of a start with a new team as you could draw up.
But let’s put some numbers to that: Among the 110 starting pitchers with at least 60.0 IP through July 2, Taillon’s 6.93 ERA was the second worst in MLB, ahead of only Luke Weaver (6.96 ERA). And the peripherals weren’t any kinder: 33.2 GB% (13th worst), .294 AVG (6th worst), 12.8 barrel% (5th worst), etc. There was probably some bad luck baked in there, but not nearly enough to engender any semblance of comfort or confidence moving forward.
And then he went to Yankee Stadium and absolutely SHOVED.
Pitching at the park in which he spent the last two seasons, Taillon dominated in a way no opposing starter has there in YEARS: 8.0 IP, 1H, 0ER, 2BB, 4K.
And just like that, it felt like a switch flipped. Taillon followed that outing with 5.2 innings against the Nationals with just 3 earned runs and held the Cardinals to one earned run over 5.2 innings two days ago.
And with a not-great-but-also-not-terrible first start in July (4ER over 5.0 IP against the Guardians), Taillon is actually on a pretty steady four-game stretch: 24.1 IP, 21H, 8ER, 4 walks, 20K. That’s good for a 2.96 ERA. That’ll play!
And under the hood, that stretch reveals a much-improved groundball rate (45.9%), a tiny walk rate (4.0%), and a much-more comfortable .223 average against. There is definitely some favorable BABIP in here (.264 BABIP vs .297 career BABIP), but his bad-stretch .339 BABIP carried an even larger gap relative to his career mark.
So did he achieve these results? Well, I noticed at least two significant changes.
Pitch Mix
For one, Taillon has adjusted his pitch mix. We’re still in a tiny sample (only four games in the good stretch), but his fastball usage is completely different than it was at the start of the year (as categorized by Pinch Info):
Four-seamer:
Bad stretch: 32.2%
Good Stretch: 43.0%
Cutter:
Bad stretch: 22.5%
Good Stretch: 13.8%
Sinker:
Bad stretch: 13.0%
Good Stretch: 7.3%
He’s also dialed up the usage of his curveball (14.5% –> 19.1%), while keeping his changeup and slider usage static.
Vertical Release Point
But it’s not just the pitch mix that’s changed, it’s also the release point. Look at the variability in his vertical release point earlier in the season compared to more recently. Look how it settles in with consistency – at a slightly lower level – as the season marched on:
That has the look of a guy who was searching for it early on and finally locked himself in.
Jameson Taillon’s Bounce Back
And while his bounce back is almost certainly too-little-too-late to help the Cubs THIS season, it is still a very good thing for the organization moving forward. Not only is Taillon in Chicago on a relatively pricey four-year deal, he’s also one of just … two(?) pitchers we can absolutely count on being in the rotation next year (him and Justin Steele).
Needless to say, a good Jameson Taillon is CRUCIAL for the Cubs success beyond this season. And if, in the meantime, he can help the Cubs win some games and stay in the race, that’s all the better.
Now, with all of that said, the “bad” of the early season was sufficiently bad to make you nervous for every start through the end of the year. But it does look like he’s starting to turn a corner and pitch closer to the guy the Cubs thought they were getting when they signed him over the offseason.
