NEWSLETTER
Shohei Ohtani was always going to suck up most of the free agency oxygen in the months ahead, and I don’t think that will change even after news of his partially-torn UCL (even though it absolutely WILL dramatically alter that free agency’s trajectory). But his is far from the only major free agent story ahead, and I think sometimes the super nova that is Ohtani can obscure how many other significant free agent stories are coming.
We know the biggest one as far as Cubs fans are concerned is Cody Bellinger, which is probably even more wrapped up now with Ohtani’s story than it was before the injury. But there is also a market loaded with quality starting pitchers, like Aaron Nola, Julio Urias, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez, and many more. There is top Korean player Jung-Hoo Lee coming over despite his ankle injury.
And there is Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is coming over to the States as the most heralded pitcher from Japan since at least Masahiro Tanaka.
The righty, who just turned 25 last week, is in the midst of his third straight sub-2 ERA season with absurd peripherals (better than Tanaka, for example). The scouting is what matters most, but his numbers are up there with any other pitcher who has ever taken the ball in the NPB. Speculation has it that Yamamoto could command a deal north of $200 million, which sounds about right using the Tanaka comp and a decade of inflation.
Were it not for the other huge storylines crowding the market a bit, this would be a MAJOR story to follow. It still is. You’re talking about a 25-year-old potential ace coming to the States.
Jon Heyman reports that the Chicago Cubs were among the teams scouting Yamamoto at his latest start, which is to be expected. Any large-market team should be doing their due diligence on a 25-year-old international ace who can be had for only money. Ultimately, the price tag and your organization’s scouting reports will dictate how serious the pursuit is, but we know the Cubs went seriously after Tanaka, we know they went seriously after Kodai Senga, and we know they signed Seiya Suzuki. This is not an area where they are shy about getting involved. (They had also reportedly been scouting Jung-Hoo Lee in Korea.)
Of course, with a player this young and talented as Yamamoto, so many teams will be involved. Heyman lists nine other teams as scouting Yamamoto this week, and it’s all the big boys you’d expect, plus the Cardinals, Tigers, and Diamondbacks.
Consider, for example, the story that was Kodai Senga last year. Now consider that Yamamoto has been BETTER in Japan than Senga, and is FIVE YEARS YOUNGER than Senga. And now consider that Senga has been quite good for the Mets this year (3.16 ERA, 2.6 WAR), and I hope that offers another way to think about what a major story Yamamoto is.
I very much hope the Cubs become seriously involved in his posting process.
