NEWSLETTER
A couple updates on the top remaining – yup, still – free agent starting pitchers, lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
Although rumors picked up on Snell and the Astros late last week, no signing news dropped. It was surprising, because the TYPE of rumors that had come out, and the sources from which they emanated, definitely had the feel of “ah, ok, this is happening.”
Even more curiously, Bob Nightengale reports that while the talks have happened, the Astros are balking at the relatively reasonable asking price:
“The Houston Astros, who exchanged contract proposals this week for two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, now appear to be long-shots to sign him. They have balked at Snell’s asking price of at least a two-year guarantee for $60 million, including an opt-out after the 2024 season. The Astros’ biggest concern is that they will be over another luxury tax threshold if they pay Snell close to $30 million annually.”
Two years and $60 million, with the opt-out in between? That seems like a borderline dream contract for a guy like Snell, who can be a true ace, but whose inconsistency and high-wire act make you reluctant to sign him for a super long deal. Some team needs to jump on this ASAP, right? And surely the reason this is coming out like this is to put pressure on the Astros, while also announcing to the world, hey, everyone, here’s a deal we would accept.
Nightengale suggests the Giants are the favorite to sign Snell at this point, by the way, but they, too, are still waiting for the price to come down.
A reminder that, while Snell is attached to draft pick compensation, the “price” for non-luxury-tax-paying, large-market clubs that have already signed another Qualified Free Agent is relatively low: just their third highest pick in the draft.
Speaking of the impact of Qualifying Offers, you’ll recall that it isn’t an issue for Jordan Montgomery, who was traded at midseason last year, and thus was ineligible to receive a Qualifying Offer from the Rangers after the season. That means, unlike Snell and others, Montgomery was never held down by the extra “cost” of draft pick(s) and IFA funds being lost.
Which doesn’t mean those things aren’t a consideration in his free agency.
Brilliant point by Greg:
When it comes to a delayed signing and the whole draft pick penalty thing, we always think about guys like Snell, who are already attached to a Qualifying Offer, and who could detach themselves by waiting until after the draft to sign. It’s rare, but it does happen (as with Craig Kimbrel and the Cubs in 2019).
But as Greg thoughtfully points out, there is a consideration on this topic for Montgomery, too: if he waits until the day after Opening Day to sign, then he once again cannot be made a Qualifying Offer at the end of 2024. That could make a short-term deal – or one with opt outs – more appealing to him than such a deal would be today. After all, a one-year deal or an early opt-out for Montgomery would be a lot less attractive knowing that his team could weigh him down with a Qualifying Offer after the season.
Of course, the flip side to this is the same as it always was: the longer Montgomery waits to sign, the less valuable he becomes to his team in 2024. And if he waits until after the season starts, his signing team will factor into the price the fact that they cannot make him a Qualifying Offer after the season. Which probably then puts a multi-year deal right back on the table, at an adjusted AAV.
My guess, then? Maybe Montgomery signs a multi-year, no-opt-outs type deal after Opening Day?
If so, he doesn’t have too much longer to wait, though the ramp up to game action from there will be heavily dependent on where he is in his progression on his own. That adds another layer of risk for a signing team, since they will not have had eyes on him through that process.
