NEWSLETTER
There’s no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history.
Not that they did poorly, mind you.
Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and Hector Neris are legitimately solid pickups. And I like the addition of Michael Busch (and Yency Almonte), too. But signing just three big league free agents, one of whom was on the team last year and another who’s effectively replacing Marcus Stroman in a similar rotation, while trading for one admittedly exciting, but still unproven prospect and a dice-roll reliever comes up WELL short of what probably should have been.
And that’s especially true in an offseason with legitimate star power available — Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell (plus quality second-tier guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Jung Hoo Lee, etc.). I’m not advocating for the Cubs to have gone over the top on any one specific signing or trade, but the broader point remains: the Cubs mostly hung back, making moves only on their terms with pretty obvious value from Day 1. That’s just how Jed Hoyer rolls.
And, listen, even if it’s not my preferred route, I do understand the approach. At the end of the day, there’s not a lot of risk in a three-year (opt-out heavy) deal for Bellinger, a one-year (plus club option) deal for Neris, or a creative contract for Imanaga (which wound up roughly half-as-pricey as projected). That leaves a lot of flexibility for the future, which is great….BUUUUUUUUUUT, it also screams “this is probably juuuuuuust good enough.”
And that’s kinda the point of this post.
It feels to me like Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office is playing to the (weak) NL Central. If 85-ish wins is enough to get you into the tournament, then why would you spend $100M more to win 95 games? That’s just excess!
Indeed, the projections and playoff odds are not favoring the Cubs this year, and Jed Hoyer kinda has to wear that.
But this post was never meant to be negative. Because even though I think the Cubs should have done more, I do think the projections are a little light, based not only on the underlying performance last year that indicated 7-8 more wins than they actually acheived, but also the actual roster. In fact, I tend to think Hoyer’s bet is right, in that the Cubs probably have just enough to get the job done. Just go around the diamond, and it’s not hard to like what this team has to offer.
Beyond that, the rotation is led by a 28-year-old All-Star, Justin Steele, who was a Cy Young front-runner for most of last season. And he’s followed by experience (Kyle Hendricks, who seemingly still has it), stability/depth (Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad), and plenty of immediate upside (Shota Imanaga, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski). Meanwhile, top prospects like Cade Horton and Ben Brown are expected to arrive this year.
It’s not going to be the best rotation in baseball, but it certainly seems like it could be a step up from last year (even if I still think Jordan Montgomery would be nice).
It’s always impossible to project a bullpen, but at a minimum, the Cubs young closer (Adbert Alzolay) now has some experience and a MUCH more dependable set-up man than he had last year (Hector Nerris). After him, there’s your usual combination of optionable, young guys or upside plays (Yency Almonte, Luke Little, Daniel Palencia), and can-you-do-it-again big leaguers (Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., Jose Cuas).
With one of the best perceived pitching staff managers at the helm, Craig Counsell, it’s not difficult to envision this playing out better than 2023.
But let’s circle back again to my point: This all means there are expectations.
Jed Hoyer should feel the pressure because he’s four years into a rebuild and decided to play it a little safer than expected this offseason. But the players and Craig Counsell should feel the pressure because, well, this is a pretty good, young team in a very winnable division with prospect reinforcements clearly on their way.
In other words, this is not a development year. This is not a build up year. This is a go-win right now year. And while I will stop short of proclaiming “World-Series-or-bust!” this is absolutely, positively a playoffs-or-bust type of season. Anything short of that – arguably even if they snuck in as a Wild Card team – would be an enormous disappointment. I’m planting that flag now. From the front office to the dugout to the field, the expectations are on. It’s time to start winning.
