NEWSLETTER
I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day.
In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:
Obviously the extent to which the Cubs were returning their 2023 roster in 2024 has long been an offseason talking point, and this chart clearly confirms it. The Cubs aren’t returning their roster to an outrageous degree – there is a band of teams that are clustered together below the Phillies and Astros – but it’s definitely very little turnover in plate appearances and innings pitched.
A few reactions …
1.) The 2023 Cubs were a true-talent 90-ish win team, so the fact that most of the crew is coming back is … a good thing? I understand that folks can and will point to the 83 wins and a playoff miss (by one game) as evidence that returning the same crew is a bad thing, but that’s not how projections work. Those 83 wins the Cubs netted last year? That was like a 30th percentile outcome for that team based on the underlying performance they put together, the latter of which is what you would use MORE to project for 2024. In other words, if the same group of guys returned and did the same stuff they did last year, the Cubs would be far more likely to win in the high-80s than the low-80s.
2.) Speaking of which, Craig Counsell. The Cubs paid a whole lot of money to swap him into the manager seat on the thinking that, among other things, he COULD win more games with the same group of players. It’s kind of the entire philosophy behind manager value.
3.) A lot of what is returning for the Cubs falls into the age-30 and younger group, which tends to hold value (or step forward) a little better than over 30 players.
4.) I suppose you’d hope that the 20% of PAs and innings the Cubs have projected for new players wind up being an important, over-productive chunk. Largely, that’s going to mean Michael Busch and Shota Imanaga.
5.) I suppose you’d also hope for young players to either arrive and contribute, or take on a greater share of PAs/innings, and improve performance that way.
