NEWSLETTER
There’s not much about Javier Assad that would suggest he can be too much more than a very useful swing-starter/long-man in the bullpen long-term. He does not have premium velocity. He does not have any elite pitches. He’s not particularly tall. He’s not particularly athletic. There’s no prospect-pedigree, and so on. And yet, he just keeps succeeding … over and over.
Last season, as a starter, Assad earned a 3.02 ERA over 53.2 IP. And this season, after starting the year in the bullpen, Assad was forced into the rotation due to multiple injuries, before peeling off consecutive impressive outings against the Rockies (6.0 IP, 4H, 0ER, 1BB, 5K) and Padres (5.0 IP, 3H, 2ER, 3BB, 7Ks), throwing a career-high 104 pitches last night in San Diego.
Assad never looks particularly overwhelming to hitters, but his vast repertoire and execution is seemingly enough to get him through even tough lineups like the Padres. Last night, for example, Assad netted at least one whiff on SIX different pitches (11 total) en route to striking out 7 batters. And of his remaining 8 outs, half came on the ground, while the Padres overall exit velocity on the evening was just 85.2 MPH (which would be an elite number for Assad if he could do that for a full season).
Again, with his apparent lack of “stuff,” those sorts of results are really quite remarkable. But I also don’t want to sell Assad short. He was clearly a little amped up last night, pitching so close to his home-town in Tijuana, Mexico.
If you didn’t stay up late, you probably didn’t see this, but Assad reached back and zipped his four-seamer up to a max of 95.2 MPH last night, while his sinker topped out at 94.5 MPH. His average is in the 92-93 MPH range, so this was a good bit higher than usual. And it wasn’t just velo.
Our old friend Bryan noticed that his sinker had unusually good movement, saying “Before tonight, Javier Assad had thrown 9 sinkers in his career than ran 18+ inches horizontally armside. Never more than two in any outing. He threw six in the first tonight, including the final pitch to whiff Machado.”
On average, Assad’s sinker broke 16 inches horizontally last night. Last season, his sinker average 13.8 inches of horizontal movement. He saw some improvements to the movement on his slider, too:
Slider Vertical Movement:
Last night: 43 inches
2023: 41.4 inches
Slider Horizontal Movement:
Last night: 14 inches
2023: 13.4 inches
And, well, yeah, it worked:
The Cubs are going to be better off when Javier Assad is back in the bullpen, gobbling up meaningful innings in high-leverage, mid-game settings. But until then, it’s nice to see him having so much success as a starter. And seeing as he’ll be in the rotation even after Jameson Taillon returns sometime at the end of this month (while Justin Steele is still out), that’s good news for the Cubs.
He won’t always throw 100+ pitches and he won’t max out at 95 MPH with more spin and movement than usual. But in the meantime, Assad can have a lot of success mixing and matching a wide arsenal, even against good offenses. And for that, I’m thankful he’s around.
