Hector Neris Has Four Straight Saves, But I Don’t Think He Can Stay in That Role Much Longer

I don’t want to get into too much exposition here on the history, so I’ll try to keep this brief: Despite blowing just three saves last season, Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay had already let four games slip away by April 20 of this season, when he was finally (albeit temporarily) relieved of his title.

But just because you don’t have a closer doesn’t mean you don’t have games to close. So in his place, Alzolay’s set-up man, Hector Neris, has taken over, saving four consecutive games, including last night’s win over the Mets. So … problem solved right? Yeah, no. Not even close.

Although Neris has technically gotten the job done in each of his four save attempts as the temporary closer, he has been FAR from perfect. In fact, these innings have been borderline unwatchable for anyone with fingernails remaining. And it’s largely because of the walks.

Through 11 games (10.0 IP), Hector Neris has walked (11) more batters than he’s struck out (10). That’s more than a walk an inning, with four free passes in his last two save attempts, alone. For the season, he has the second-worst walk rate in baseball (23.9%) among all qualified relievers. Only Aroldis Chapman has been worse, but at least his walks come with a 35.6% strikeout rate. Neris is at just 23.9%.

And when he’s not issuing ninth-inning, leadoff walks, Hector Neris is allowing a ton of hard contact (52.0 hard%, 12 barrel%). If it wasn’t for a .250 BABIP and an 84.3% strand rate, his 3.60 ERA would look a whoooooole lot worse than it does. As a matter of fact, Statcast has him with a 6.50 xERA. And it sure feels that way.

For as much as I appreciate the offseason signing, and concede that closing is an extremely difficult job (one in which – to be fair – he has gotten done so far), Neris just can’t stay in this role for much longer.

Not when batters are swinging at just 29.1% of his pitches out of the zone (career (35%)

Not when they’re making contact with 89.8% of his pitches in the zone (77.5%)

Not when he’s starting with a first-pitch strike just 41.3% of the time (career 57.2%) … league average: 60.4%.

Not when his whiff rate has dropped from 15.9% to 9.0%.

And not when his fastball velocity has dropped nearly 2.0 full MPH from its peak.

It’s just not tenable. The only truly positive/comforting thing he has done this year (in terms of his underlying performance and our expectations going forward) is generate a ton of groundballs (60%). But that’s WAY above his career mark (38.8%), which makes me nervous.

Maybe he’s trying to reinvent himself some way, and that’d be great/encouraged. I still expect him to contribute meaningful innings of relief this year, perhaps even as the second most trusted reliever in the pen. But if he is working on something, he can’t be doing that in the closer’s role. And if he’s not, then he can’t stay in the closer’s role, because he won’t keep getting as lucky as he has.

But what are the Cubs going to do? Their options are imperfect.

Adbert Alzolay will probably return to the job at some point, but he’s made just two appearances since his last blown save (the final straw before he lost the job). I’d argue that a 3.09 HR/9 is really unsustainable, and he may have simply had some bad timing on those homers with a bunch of one-run save opportunities. I agreed with the need to move him out of the role temporarily. And I don’t necessarily know if he’s ready to come back yet. But I also think I’d have more faith in his ability to close a game down than I do Neris.

Mark Leiter Jr.: Leiter has been the Cubs most dependable reliever this year, and was for much of last season too. But I think he’s too valuable to Craig Counsell for other high-leverage moments in the game, particularly against lefties (this team doesn’t have a LOOGY), to reserve for only saves.

Yency Almonte, Colten Brewer, Richard Lovelady: None of these three are closers for all what I suspect are obvious reasons.

Daniel Palencia: Palencia actually does have the STUFF to be a closer. But he’s nowhere near a finished product yet, with far too much wildness for the shutdown inning. Maybe some day. But not yet.

Keegan Thompson: Maybe. Maybe. He’s obviously been brilliant so far this season (including high leverage moments) and is not more than a year removed from being seen as the late-inning, high-leverage type anyway. But we’re also talking about a guy who didn’t break camp with the team and spent much of last season with an 8.10 ERA in Iowa. I like what Thompson is doing, but the Cubs might actually be best served by letting him continue to get his feet under him before throwing him to the wolves. Plus, there’s the whole “can he do short, back-to-back days thing?” As of now, I think the answer is still maybe not?

Hayden Wesneski is currently in the rotation and otherwise best suited for a multiple-innings role.

Ben Brown is currently in the rotation. But if Justin Steele comes back on May 6, as hoped, I could see Brown’s high-octane, two-pitch arsenal working really well in late relief. Doesn’t really solve the right-now problem, though. And you’re still talking about throwing a rookie into the closer’s role with no experience.

And Drew Smyly and Julian Merryweather are both on the IL.

So realistically, it’s … (1) stick with Neris, (2) go back to Alzolay, (3) use Mark Leiter Jr. imperfectly and lose matchup flexibility, or (4) risk the progress made by Keegan Thompson.

If it were up to me, I’d probably go back to Adbert Alzolay BEFORE Neris blows a save, not after. But in practice, it might not be so easy. I think we might just have to hope for a save opportunity to present itself on a night when Neris and Leiter Jr. are otherwise unavailable, forcing Counsell’s hand. Then, if Alzolay fails, it’s hey, he’s not the closer, he’s just the only guy we had available. But if he succeeds, maybe he gets some confidence back, you try it again, and eventually, the Cubs can go back to their more normal roles.

How would you handle it?