NEWSLETTER
CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs won their opener against the Braves last night, which means they have a chance at a series win as soon as tonight! And if they manage to win this game, they’ll also guarantee themselves at least a season-series split against the Braves, who took two of three in Atlanta last week. And that would be a nice little feather in this team’s cap.
So let’s see if they call pull it off, with Nico Hoerner topping the Cubs lineup this evening against Max Fried.
Chicago Cubs Lineup:
- Nico Hoerner, 2B
- Seiya Suzuki, RF
- Cody Bellinger, CF
- Chris Morel, DH
- Patrick Wisdom, 1B
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Ian Happ, LF
- Nick Madrigal, 3B
- Miguel Amaya, C
I’m not sure I love effectively swapping out Mike Tauchman for Nick Madrigal, by way of third base and DH, especially because tonight’s lefty starter Max Fried has significant REVERSE splits and Tauchman hits lefties fine, as well. But I suppose it’s at least fair to point out that Madrigal has had some (small sample size) success against lefties, himself, this season.
And it’s even more possible (likely, even) that Chris Morel could really use a half-day of rest, seeing as his body has been getting beat up every other game. So this is a way to keep him in the Cubs lineup without having to play the field.
But beyond that, it’s the usual “vs lefties” Cubs lineup tonight, with Nico Hoerner leading off and Patrick Wisdom at first in place of Michael Busch.
There aren’t a TON of useful matchup data points to share tonight, but there are two:
Atlanta Braves Lineup:
- Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
- Ozzie Albies, 2B
- Marcell Ozuna, DH
- Matt Olson, 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud, C
- Orlando Arcia, SS
- Michael Harris II, CF
- Adam Duvall, LF
- Zack Short, 3B
Pitching Matchup:
Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele, LHP
Justin Steele has made three starts since coming off the injured list
Atlanta Braves: Max Fried, LHP
On the whole, Max Fried has been pretty good this season, with a 3.81 ERA over 49.2 IP. But drilling down on the performance reveals a really HIGH-low season. For example, his season started with two horrible outings against the Phillies and Diamondbacks, with a combined final line of 5.0 IP, 12H, 11R, 10ER, 4BB, 6K. But he’s also thrown a three-hit, no-walk complete game shutout against the Marlins before blanking the Mariners (6.0 IP) and Mets (7.0 IP), as well. And it continues.
On the one hand, a 19.0% strikeout rate is borderline awful. But on the other, a 64.3% groundball rate is borderline elite. Likewise, the 9.8% walk rate is high, but the 84.3% average exit velocity is really really good.
And to really drive home the wonkiness, Fried’s reverse-splits are even more pronounced this season, with lefties hitting a ridiculous .442/.500/.605 (.484 wOBA) off Fried, while righties are hitting just .143/.236/.193 (.206 wOBA). So … yeah. Not sure what to do with all of that.
Broadcast Info:
Chicago Cubs (27-22) vs Atlanta Braves (27-18) at 6:40 pm CT – Marquee Sports Network, 670 The Score
CHICAGO CUBS: Drew Smyly, Jordan Wicks, Daniel Palencia, Yency Almonte, Colten Brewer, Adbert Alzolay, Keegan Thompson, Caleb Kilian, Julian Merryweather
ATLANTA BRAVES: Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, Tyler Matzek, Angel Perdomo
