NEWSLETTER
For as clutch as Yan Gomes was at the plate last season, his offense output this year has been nothing short of brutal: .174/.183/.275 (26 wRC+). He can still call a game as well as anyone, but that’s a blackhole offensively, even at the back-up catcher position. Unfortunately, the Cubs primary catcher – and catcher of the future, Miguel Amaya – hasn’t been much better: .182/.252/.283 (55 wRC+). And both of them have been too easy to steal on.
Needless to say, the Cubs could theoretically use an upgrade at the catcher position, especially if that player was a plus offensively and wouldn’t block Miguel Amaya long-term.
Well, there’s someone exactly like out there: Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen. And Ben Clemens of FanGraphs recently said that he thinks Jansen will be available at the trade deadline, specifically calling out the Cubs as an ideal fit.
Here’s the clip.
Danny Jansen, Cubs Trade Target?
At this point, this is still at the speculative stage (i.e. not an actual rumor), but it does make some sense, so I thought we could break it down a little bit to get it on our radar as we approach June/rumor season.
So here’s why it could make sense for each team…
The Blue Jays (23-27) are four games below .500 and in last place of the AL East. Their path to the postseason is incredibly fraught. Danny Jansen, 29, is hitting out of his mind at the moment, and is a plus defensively. But he’s also a free agent at the end of the year, so trading him before the deadline makes a lot of sense. The Blue Jays aren’t likely ready to blow up their entire team, but a rental catcher whose value has never been higher? Why wouldn’t they consider dealing him.
The Chicago Cubs (27-24) are a competitive team this season, but could clearly use help offensively. The hard part is, when you look around the diamond, there’s not a lot of obvious places for upgrades, especially if Pete Crow-Armstrong gets promoted again, indirectly crowding the outfield, as well as first base and DH (by way of Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman/Ian Happ).
In fact, catcher is pretty much the only relatively easy position at which to add, so long as the player doesn’t block Amaya long-term (and, again, Danny Jansen is a free agent at the end of the year, so no issue there).
The Cubs also happen to have (arguably) the top farm system in baseball, with some positional crowding at the upper levels of the minors. So that’s means, motive, and opportunity.
And if all that wasn’t enough, allow me to remind you that the Cubs have actually been connected to Danny Jansen in the past. It was two offseasons ago, but that still feels notable.
But how good has Jansen been? Well, incredibly good. Unsustainably good, in fact, because right now, he’s hitting like Mike Trout: .313/.391/.625 (184 wRC+). And the best part is he’s doing all that with a 12.0% walk rate, a 14.1% strikeout rate. The .317 BABIP is certainly WELL above his career average (.240), but he’s barreling the ball better than he ever has in his career and is hitting a lot of line drives. So it’s at least partially earned.
Statcast Agrees …
Actual AVG: .313
Expected AVG: .291
Actual SLG: .625
Expected SLG: .542
Actual wOBA: .431
Expected wOBA: .392
Even if he had his expected wOBA instead of his actual wOBA, he’d be one of the top-13 hitters in baseball this season, tied with Bryce Harper. I don’t think that will last either, but he’s locked in right now. There’s no denying that. And it’s not like he doesn’t have a history of being a plus offensive bat:
2021: .223/.299/.473 (105 wRC+)
2022: .260/.339/.516 (141 wRC+)
2023: .228/.312/.474 (116 wRC+)
2024: .313/.391/.625 (184 wRC+)
Career: .229/.314/.446 (107 wRC+)
And defensively, Danny Jansen has been one of the top-10 most valuable catchers since 2019. He hasn’t been quite that elite the last two seasons. But generally speaking, he seems to be a net positive on defense.
Now here’s the hard part: We know (from experience with Willson Contreras) that mid-season catcher trades are both difficult to pull off and moderately rare. It’s not easy for a catcher to change teams and learn an entirely new pitching staff/process on the fly. And the later in the season it gets, the more difficult that becomes to pull off. And since Jed Hoyer doesn’t usually like to jump the market for a move, the timing might not be ideal for a Cubs catcher trade…
… But I think it probably should be something they consider. This Cubs team is good, but they could use some offense, and it makes sense to add that offense at the catcher spot. What do you think?
