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Odubel Herrera Just Made One of the Lowest Catch Probability Plays of the Year

Incredible Plays

On your first viewing, the catch might not look *that* incredible.

Here. Have your first viewing:


On your second viewing, however, really take note of how hard that ball was struck, how much it was slicing away from center field, how close it was to the wall when it was about to come down, and how very, very quickly Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera closed on the ball.

I’ll wait.

Having seen the play again with fresher eyes, can you see how difficult that play was? Well, if your eyes cannot, the tracking systems can:

So, then. The vast majority of the time, a ball like that – at 104mph off the bat, going 358 feet, and at that angle – drops in for a hit. My guess is that, among the 14% of times it does not, most of those involve some crazy dive at the end. The fact that Herrera was able to get there standing up, and in enough time not to totally wreck himself on the wall, actually makes his catch even more impressive.