NEWSLETTER
Readers repeatedly asked me if I was going to write a “Why the 2009 Chicago Cubs Will Suck” article, as I had for the rest of the N.L. Central. My answer, in turn, was a repeated “no.” How could I? There is no objective, reasonable basis to conclude the Cubs will suck this year. But to sate the masses, I have prepared this article, which highlights what could go wrong.
Yes, the Chicago Cubs are the prohibitive favorite to win the N.L. Central this year. In fact, I’d put it at even odds that they have the best record in the National League.
But that’s paper baseball. We have only some names on a computer screen to go by; and of course, we all realize that baseball is played on the diamond, not on a computer. In paper baseball, guys always perform up to their career averages – or sometimes, slightly better. They never get hurt. The team never changes.
We know, intellectually, the 2009 season will not play out as we project. Seasons never do. However, we assume that it will play out closer to the averages, to our expectations, than something else.
But what if that something else happens? What if – God, yes God, forbid – the worst happens? Not just for a couple players, but for every single Chicago Cub. What would that season look like, and would you survive it?
Let’s make this a simple run-down of the players expected to make the Cubs, and the terror that might befall them … and us. These are the 2009 Chicago Cubs worst case scenarios:
Worst Case Scenario: Batting average drops 10% – as it did from 2008 to 2009 – and Lee barely manages to hit .265. This takes his OPS down into the .770 range. Oh, and his defensive skills continue to decline.
Worst Case Scenario: Mike’s not up to the task, and Aaron Miles becomes the starter by June. And the best case scenario for Miles is still a worst case scenario for the Cubs.
Worst Case Scenario: Theriot’s limited range and weak arm haunt the Cubs, and a miserable .260 / .320 / .330 line does nothing to assuage the pain. His one asset that “doesn’t slump” doesn’t help either – he gets caught attempting to steal as many times as he’s successful.
Worst Case Scenario: On and off, Ramirez misses time. This means even more Aaron Miles, and at a power spot, he’s a thoroughly inadequate replacement.
Worst Case Scenario: The cold streaks last much longer than the hot streaks, and there is never that definable stretch where Soriano carries the Cubs. Without that streak, the Cubs slip into a few prolonged losing stretches. You know exactly what I’m talking about.
Worst Case Scenario: Not only is Fukudome brutal at the plate, his transition to center field is equally brutal. This leads to Reed Johnson becoming the de facto starter, and Joey Gathright seeing more time in center. And if there’s one guy that makes a struggling Fukudome look like an all right hitter, it’s Joey Gathright.
Worst Case Scenario: Bradley never sees the field. Injuries late in spring training delay his premier, and when he’s finally physically able to perform, emotional instability keeps him off the field.
Worst Case Scenario: Zambrano’s slow start lasts well into June as it did two years ago. When he finally starts to get back on track, his shoulder gives out. He comes back to close out the year because he’s a tough dude, but he’s not the same.
Worst Case Scenario: It was contract year magic, and/or the league figures Dempster out. His ERA returns to what it was the last time he started: a nasty 6.54. By the end of the year, everyone’s wondering how he’d fare back in the pen.
Worst Case Scenario: He doesn’t pitch. The shoulder tear he’s dealing with gives way late in spring training, and his only option is surgery, and rehabing on the Cubs’ dime. Fortunately the Cubs have options to replace him – Mitch Atkins, Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija – but none even come close to pitching like Rich could have.
Worst Case Scenario: Lilly pitches like he did in Toronto and the ERA hovers around 4.50 all season long. That is, until he and Lou Piniella get into a very public fight at the mound, and Lilly gets his ass kicked, ending his season in early September.
Worst Case Scenario: And that’s just what happens. Marshall wears down consistently by the fifth inning, taxing the bullpen, and wears down for good by August. With Harden already out, and the other three starters largely ineffective, the rotation is an unmitigated disaster.
Worst Case Scenario: Remember that stretch last year when Carlos Marmol was perhaps the worst pitcher in all of baseball? It was inconceivable, but it happened. And it could happen again. Couple that with Kevin Gregg’s knee issues, Luis Vizcaino’s continued descent into suckiness, and no one else standing out, and the pen that looked so bright on paper ends up a serious hole in the team.
So there you have it, friends. Not a pretty picture.
Do I think all or even many of these things will happen? Of course not. But what if they did? Though they are the projected worst case scenarios, they are not unrealistic. What if three of them happen? Five?
How many will it take to derail the prevailing assumption that the only part of 2009 that will matter is the playoffs? How many will it take for the playoffs to be but a dream?
