Doing Great in the Community, Advanced Metrics, Playoff Odds, and Other Bullets

Nov 09, 2018

I went to the store to stock up on cold medicine, but also came home with three boxes of cake mix and ready-made pie crust. It’s about to be baking season and the stuff was on sale so I couldn’t say no. So … what should I make this weekend?

We know how good the Bears have been on the field, but it’s great to see them continue to do wonderful things off of it:

https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1060597322692861952

If you’ll recall, Bears players were the first to go all-in on raising money for the league’s new social justice initiatives, raising $250,000 in September – which was immediately matched by the team. So it’s good to see the team continue its work toward making the world a better place. Keep it up, guys.

On the field, the numbers show the Bears have played some pretty good football:

Updated #Bears DVOA on offense —
Total offense: 6.6% (10th)
Rush offense: 5.0% (7th)
Pass offense: 17.5% (14th)

— Zack Pearson (@Zack_Pearson) November 8, 2018

The site’s latest updated playoff odds give the Bears a 79 percent chance of making the postseason, with a 66.6 percent shot at winning the division, and a 20.2 percent window where the team can play its way into a first-round bye. Now wouldn’t that be something!?

One nugget regarding playoff odds elsewhere, last night’s loss by the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football moved the needle a tiny bit in the Bears’ favor in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL playoff projections. Carolina’s defeat gave the Bears the slightest up-tick in playoff odds, as Chicago now sits with a 56 percent chance to make it. The Bears were at 55 percent entering the week. Hey, every bit helps!

Vic Fangio had me a little worried about Khalil Mack’s playing status, but Mack practiced in full for a second consecutive day and all signs point to him being ready to roll on Sunday. And even though the Bears’ defense has been good in the two weeks Mack has been absent, how can you not want him in the lineup:

The leaders in our stat – Pass Rush Points Saved in 2018 are …
1. Dee Ford 21
2. Khalil Mack 20
3. J.J. Watt 19
4. Frank Clark 19
5. Chandler Jones 18

* This measures a player's effectiveness doing things that give his team a better chance to win pic.twitter.com/MBlgosnQzr

— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) November 9, 2018

And it’s not just the Mack attack that’s coming back, Chris Emma of 670 The Score reports wide receiver Allen Robinson declared he’s 100 percent healed from the groin injury he suffered against the Dolphins on October 14 and re-aggravated a week later. Robinson has missed the lat two games, but at least Mitch Trubisky was able to build up some confidence in other pass-catching targets while his No. 1 guy was out of the lineup.

The advanced metrics aren’t painting a pretty picture of Trubisky’s second season. Chicago’s second-year signal caller ranked 29th among quarterbacks at Pro Football Focus, with only Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Nathan Peterman checking in with lower grades than him. A disappointing 66.8 clean-pocket grade and a not-so-appealing 53.1 percent accuracy rate really sink his grade. And while Trubisky provides an impact elsewhere as a quarterback, his accuracy and production in the pocket need to improve in order for him (and the team) to take the next step.

Aren’t you glad the Bears didn’t dump Jordan Howard before the trade deadline? Because had they done so, they would have deprived us of highlights like this:

Snow today.
Storms on Sunday.#DaBears pic.twitter.com/RjcbgZFexY

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 9, 2018

I’d be disappointed if I didn’t see the Bears on this list of teams checking in to see Alabama play Mississippi State:

Live scouting at the Alabama-Mississippi State game:#Ravens #Lions #Steelers #Bears #Titans #Eagles #Chiefs #Panthers #Bills #Jets #Jaguars #Dolphins #Giants

— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) November 9, 2018

There will always be a focus on the first-round talent when the Crimson Tide are playing, but let’s not forget the Bears were able to swoop up Eddie Jackson in the fourth round in 2017. What a steal that has turned out to be.

And by the way, there’s no way the Bills are scoring 28 points on Alabama:

According to the VP of Risk Management at @SuperBookUSA (@golfodds), they'd set the Bills as a 28.5-point favorite in a hypothetical game against Alabama.
— OddsShark (@OddsShark) November 8, 2018

And if I had the chance to wager on a hypothetical Bills-Bama matchup, I’d take Alabama on the money line. What’s there to lose?

I wish this would have been shared earlier in the day so we could have been a part of Throwback Thursday. I guess we’ll have to settle for Flashback Friday:

There's nothing sweeter than @walterpayton's highlights. #Sweetness #TBT @ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/4ZmcT05mME

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 8, 2018

written by

Luis C. Medina

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

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