NEWSLETTER
My eyes bugged out of my head like a cartoon when I saw this tweet:
.@RapSheet on Justin Fields' chances to start for #Bears in season opener: '5%, less' https://t.co/tayskQWOhI via @ParkinsSpiegel Show pic.twitter.com/vA7N7we22Y
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) May 18, 2021
But it was a different part of the conversation between Danny Parkins, Matt Spiegel, and NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport that caught my ear. Because when Parkins asked Rapoport how he knows the Bears’ preference is to start Andy Dalton in Week 1, he had this to say:
“This was something I talked to Matt Nagy about after the draft. This is the goal. Best-case scenario, he doesn’t play,” Rapoport said of Justin Fields. “If the Bears don’t play Justin Fields, it means they’re in a position where they’re winning enough games where they don’t have to do that.”
I’m not sure how that stands up when some early projections forecast the Bears having a better shot at the postseason with Fields at the helm. Nevertheless, Rapoport’s statement had me circling back to Nagy saying this, when asked about what he’ll see when it’s time to start Fields (emphasis mine):
“I would say it’s more of what’s happening on the field. There’s a lot of players who can get it right in the classroom, and then the second you get down on the field and things are down there on field level, it changes. Plays gotta be made. We’ve got to be able to see the execution from all three of these quarterbacks on the field.”
There are two things that stand out to me. Firstly, it’s Rapoport saying he talked to Nagy about this after the draft. We get so much hearsay, rumor, and conjecture from insiders, pundits and analysts that there are moments when we get numb to it. So to hear Rapoport relaying something directly from a coach — especially Nagy — feels rare. Frankly, it is as close as it gets to getting it straight from the horse’s mouth. I’ll take it.
And then there is the sentence in bold connects to what Rapoport said in the first block quote. If Nagy isn’t seeing execution on the field from his veteran quarterbacks, he seems willing to turn to the rookie. Maybe his preference is to play the veteran first. But every plan needs a fall-back option. Because starting Dalton and watching him flounder, while still a plan, isn’t one that figures to create a good environment.
Certainly, not one desired by a team that has qualified for the postseason two of the last three years. Consider that Nagy didn’t hesitate to pull Mitchell Trubisky when he was struggling to move the ball against an awful Falcons pass defense in Week 3. And once Trubisky was healthy, Nagy yanked Nick Foles from the starting lineup (and kept him out even after Foles was healthy).
But as Rapoport suggests, there is a “very, very, very small chance” Fields starts Week 1. Is that also coming from Nagy? This is why highlighting this and using it as a springboard for our own conversations is important. The odds of Fields starting seem minuscule at this point. So much so, Rapoport puts the “5 percent, less” number on it. But, again, it’s only May. A great many things can change between now and the 116 days that pass before the first Sunday of the NFL season kicks off. So let’s allow it to play out before jumping to conclusions.
