NEWSLETTER
The cicadas have finally started to bother me. The noise is not an issue, because I love loud white noise like that. Instead, it’s that they’re just freaking everywhere, and have started flying into me when I’m out and about. Leave me alone. Get your bug-loving done and get out of here for another 17 years.
• Today the Cubs start their final series before things get reeeeeally dicey. They get the Reds for three at home this weekend, and then it goes Padres three at home, Giants four on the road, Padres three on the road, Cardinals three at home, and Mets four on the road. That’s a lot of good teams and a whole lot of cross-country transit. And there’s just one off-day in there (before the Cardinals series). So, that is to say, not only is it time to gear up, it’s also a good time to make sure you win this Reds series.
• Adbert Alzolay will get the ball today in the opener, and Patrick Mooney is right to re-spotlight the innings considerations that come along with Alzolay’s 2021 season:
How the Cubs unleash Adbert Alzolay will be another X-factor in their fluid trade-deadline process: https://t.co/WWuWK9ZWCs
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) May 27, 2021
• There’s an intentional flexibility built into how much the Cubs are going to lean on Alzolay this year – and whether they will need to add a starting pitcher midseason to account for anticipated resting in the second half – but there are no set innings limitations right now on Alzolay:
“We’re just going to be cognizant of the overall workload,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “I’m much more concerned with watching him grow (and) develop. The stuff just gets better and better every outing, and his workload gets a little bit higher and a little bit higher. I think we’re going to see it. There will probably be a point where he hits a wall and we’ll be able to make that adjustment and make an assessment of what we want to do. But for right now — with the pace he’s on and the stuff we’re seeing — we want to roll with that as much as we can.
“Look, things happen throughout the year. There’s always something that comes up. But to say he’s going to throw X amount of innings is only going to limit him for next year or the year after that, so I think for right now we just keep communicating. We do a great job as an organization between the strength and conditioning staff, the training staff, the coaches, the R&D team, compiling all this information and making the best decisions we can. Ultimately, the player’s going to tell you, ‘I feel great, let’s go.’”
• Against this backdrop, I continue to like the way the Cubs have been overly aggressive in pulling Alzolay early in starts when he or the data start to show any signs of fade. What Alzolay is doing right now is *most* important for his development the next five+ years, but the second most important thing would be for him to be at his best in, say, August-October. Is that even going to be possible, given the innings bump? No one can say for sure. But if you are at least very thoughtful, intentional, and cautious through July, then maybe you give yourself a chance.
• … but, hey, if the Cubs keep winning and want to trade for Max Scherzer as the ultimate starting pitcher rental in the second half, it’s not like I’d complain about that either.
• The bullpen was scoreless AGAIN yesterday, making it a full two weeks since they’ve given up an earned run. And in perfect Dan Winkler form, he loaded the bases, but then Ryan Tepera came in to get the final out and preserve Winkler’s unbelievable 0.54 ERA. To be fair, Winkler *does* do a lot well (batters simply cannot square him up because of the arm slot and the pitch plane and the movement), but he has benefited to an almost unbelievable degree from runners being stranded. Yeah, a lot of relievers do keep their ERAs low by virtue of stranding a lot of runners, but those guys tend to be elite strikeout pitchers. Winkler is merely a fine strikeout guy. But his left-on-base rate is a bonkers 95.7% (league average is in the low 70s), and a lot of that is owing to the relievers who have followed him. Basically, Winkler is pitching like a really solid 2.50-ish ERA reliever (that’s just my own very rough gut level based on watching his performances – FIP says 3.50, but that never quite accounts enough for guys who induce brutally bad contact as a part of their skillset). His ERA says he’s been one of the five top relievers in baseball this year, which is not going to last, though.
• Winkler, by the way, has clearly worked his way into trusted late-inning setup duty, together with Andrew Chafin and Ryan Tepera. Everyone is pitching great right now, and everyone can swing into whatever role is necessary based on the schedule and rest. But if everyone is good to go, then it seems most likely you’ll see Tepera get the big swing inning or dirty inning situation, and Winkler or Chafin get the 8th inning, depending on the match-ups.
• Another big game for Kris Bryant, and he’s up to a .320/.405/.604 line with a 174 wRC+. His 2.5 WAR is already more than his entire 2018 season (remember that was the year with the knee issue), and it includes a negative defensive value, which, I mean, feels a little rough for a guy who is playing all over. I don’t think anyone who has observed his play this year would actually try to contend that he’s offered negative value on defense. I genuinely believe he’s been the NL MVP to this point, and I think he would, in fact, win it if the vote were today. To be among the top three bats in the NL and do what he’s done on defense? It doesn’t get much more “valuable” than that.
• How about this factoid:
The Cubs have now gone 23 games in a row without a loss by multiple runs, the longest streak by an NL team since the 1988 Mets did it in 24 straight games.
— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) May 27, 2021
• The record for a stretch like that is still pretty far off, if you were wondering, because the game was so different – the 1914 Athletics went 43 games in a row without a loss by multiple runs.
• Folks … it’s coming back:
https://twitter.com/ScottyChags/status/1397922677382287361
• “OUR ASS IS IN THE JACKPOT”:
Today is the five-year anniversary of this glorious baseball clip.
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) May 28, 2021
• Even Yankees media/fans are complaining about very, very modest extensions that haven’t worked out (I mean, if the Yankees can’t take $10M AAV chances on guys like this, can any team? (the answer is obviously yes, of course, lots of teams could do this, and there really shouldn’t be any complaining)):
https://t.co/PcLfwDjdBn In Feb. 2019, the #Yankees invested $110M in extensions on Hicks/Severino. It’s pretty much been a disaster, hurting as much now as any point.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 28, 2021
