NEWSLETTER
Hayden Wenseski is not the only scoreless member of the Cubs bullpen right now. In fact, both Mark Leiter Jr. (12.1 IP, 0ER) and Keegan Thompson (7.0 IP, 0ER) technically have Wesneski beat (6.1 IP, 0ER). Heck, even Yency Almonte has thrown 8.0 straight scoreless innings after a slower start. But I just can’t get Wesneski out of my head. He has been so freakin’ good in each of his two outings and I want to talk about it.
In his first game back, Wesneski came in to reliever Jordan Wicks, working out of a little jam and ultimately tossing 4.0 scoreless innings with just 1 hit and no walks allowed against two strikeouts.
In his second game back, Wesneski came in to relieve Javier Assad, working out of another mid-inning jam, before going 2.1 IP with no hits, no walks, no runs, and one strikeout. He also made this truly impressive defensive play on a soft come-backer:
Hayden Wesneski, you're a bad man! pic.twitter.com/yJ02RSYP9P
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 25, 2024
But we’re not here to talk about his defense. Because his pitching hasn’t just looked good and achieved results, it’s been particularly impressive in a few key ways.
For one, Wesneski 50% of the balls in play against Wesneski have been grounders. And only 17.6% have been classified as hard-hit by Statcast. Indeed, his average exit velocity allowed through this early stretch is … 81.4 MPH. That is INCREDIBLY low. Naturally, there have been no barrels yet.
Wesneski has also faced six lefties so far this year, and while they were a big problem for him last season, he’s sat down all six this year (four of whom grounded out).
But most encouraging to me? His actual pitches.
In 2022, Wesneski’s four-seamer averaged 93.1 MPH. Last season, it amped that up to 94.3 MPH. And this year? He’s averaging 95.1 MPH. That’s a serious jump. Meanwhile, his sweeper, which is moving slightly more horizontally than it did last year (and about the same as it was back in 2022), is actually dropping a extra three inches, making it even more devastating of a wipeout pitch.
Adding that sort of depth to a pitch that already moved so much is a huge development, and somehow, he’s still throwing it as hard as he did last year (and a MPH faster than 2022). When you can do all that AND pair it with an even faster four-seamer, well … that’s a recipe for success.
And if you’re look for even more evidence of the improved effectiveness of these pitches (besides just results), how about the plate discipline numbers. The sample is still so tiny, but this is a massively positive sign:
O-swing rate last season: 25.8%
O-swing rate this season: 50.0%
Z-swing rate last season: 61.3%
Z-swing rate this season: 51.4%
In words, that shows that batters have been TWICE as likely to swing at ball and much more likely to watch a strike fly by without swinging this year compared to last. They’re lost. And although his whiff rate is down a little, his overall called strike rate is up enough to take his called strike + whiff rate from a below-average 27.2% in 2022 and 2023 to a well-above average 31.7% this season (that would be fifth highest in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify).
Again, we’re talking about the tiniest of samples here, so I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves. But so far, so good. Wesneski is throwing harder, getting more movement, knocking down lefties, walking nobody, generating weak contact on the ground and generally getting as good of results as you can hope to see.
It’s not yet clear whether the Cubs will continue to use him out of the bullpen or if he’ll join the rotation at any point (he was stretched out as a starter to begin the year). But no matter where he is, he’s looking good and that’s just what the Cubs needed with all the pitcher injuries stacking up.
