NEWSLETTER
I’ve been thinking about this for some time now. Six months to be exact. If the Jacksonville Jaguars can do what they did in 2022, why can’t Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears do the same this season?
It’s the million-dollar question among almost everyone who roots for the Bears. The parallels can be drawn. However, I don’t think it’s quite the slam dunk that we’re hoping for.
The Jaguars were 3-14 in 2021. Jacksonville landed the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft (for a second straight season). Last year, they became one of the best storylines in the NFL as they surged in the second half of the season. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars won seven of their last nine games following a 2-6 start to the season. Their second-half surge propelled them to an AFC South title and a playoff berth.
On the eve of the Bears’ 14th and final loss of the 2022 season — which helped them secure the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft — the Jaguars beat the Titans in a thrilling clincher. It was win or go home for both teams. Jacksonville won and gave Bears fans hope that the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel might be closer than they thought.
So, again, why not the Bears? If a team that lost 50 games in the previous four seasons could do it, surely they can. Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than just drawing parallels to the records.
This conversation has to start by taking a look at how the Jaguars were able to go from worst to first in the AFC South last season. Let’s discuss this.
The Jaguars went on a spending spree in 2022
The Jaguars splashed it up last offseason. They stole the headlines early, giving wide receiver Christian Kirk a four-year, $72 million contract at the onset of free agency. Jacksonville gave Kirk the most guaranteed money out of any free-agent addition at $37 million. Brandon Scherff and Foyesade Oluokun came in second and third at $30 and $28 million, respectively.
Jacksonville also signed wide receiver Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram, defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi, and cornerback Darious Williams.
The Jaguars shelled out $175.3 million in guaranteed money, the most by any team in any offseason ever (to that point). So, not only did they spend, they spent a record-setting amount to address their holes.
But they also saw incredible ROI on their splashy free-agent class
One of the biggest reasons why the Jaguars were able to flip the script last season wasn’t how much they spent but instead who they spent it on. As splashy as their free-agency spending spree was, it was equally efficient. The return on investment was insanely high for this free-agent class. Using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic (which attempts to place a worth on a player’s performance similar to WAR in baseball), the Jaguars’ notable free agency additions all had 2022 seasons at or above their career norms.
Christian Kirk had a career season, catching 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns after being a “slot guy” in Arizona. PFR placed a 10 AV on Kirk’s season. For reference, Justin Jefferson’s 2022 AV was 15.
Zay Jones doubled his 2021 AV (4) by posting an 8 AV season. Jones caught 82 passes for 823 yards and five scores. Previous to that, Jones’ career-best in catches (56), receiving yards (652), and touchdowns (7) came with Josh Allen and the Bills in 2018. Jacksonville paid Jones $24 million over three seasons. Jones is the 35th-highest-paid receiver in the NFL by AAV. He’s getting paid similarly to Adam Thielen, Russell Gage, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Evan Engram, Brandon Scherff, and Foyesade Oluokun also had career years for the Jaguars. Engram posted 7 AV (3 AV in 2021) after hauling in 73 passes for 766 yards and four scores. Scherff’s 8 AV was a significant increase over his last season in Washington (5 AV). All Oluokun did was lead the NFL in tackles (184) while logging 12 tackles for loss and nine quarterback hits.
It’s one thing to spend. It’s an entirely different thing to hit on all of your big-ticket acquisitions in the immediate subsequent season. I have no data to back this up, but I would venture to say this was a historically good free-agent class for the Jaguars.
They also killed it in the NFL Draft
Jacksonville kicked off the 2022 NFL Draft by selecting edge rusher Travon Walker. Walker logged 3.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and posted an AV of 5, per PFR. Their next draft pick (Round 1, Pick 20), linebacker Devin Lloyd, was even better.
Lloyd logged 115 tackles and three interceptions. His rookie season was good for 8 AV. Only Sauce Gardner (14) did better among defensive players selected in the first round last year than Lloyd (who tied with Aidan Hutchinson in that category) by that metric.
Center Luke Fortner (Round 3, Pick 65) allowed one sack in 1,121 snaps (the fourth most among all centers) in 2022. Like Lloyd, Fortner logged an AV of 8.
Trevor Lawrence’s developmental leap played a huge part in it all
Of course, some of the success involved internal player development. Mainly that of quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence’s year-over-year jump was elite. Here’s how some of his 2022 statistics measured up with his rookie season in 2021:
2021
2022
If you’ve consumed anything from Bears OTAs, the missing links for Justin Fields in 2022 seem to have been found. I wrote about those early returns last week:
Sure, the OTA hype train can go off the rails from time to time. But excuse me for feeling like I want to throw my Justin Fields jersey on and run through a brick wall after hearing NFL Network’s Stacy Dales share what Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams told her regarding his observations on Justin Fields the past couple of weeks at Halas Hall.
“Number one, he talked about the improvements with his leadership. Number two, decision-making; number three, accuracy; and number four, a good one, just how fast he is processing. He noted that from day one of last year to now, the growth; you can just feel it.”
If that doesn’t have you ready to flip your desk and run out of the office on this gorgeous Friday afternoon, then I don’t know what will.
Look, again, taking the fact that it’s June 2 and there hasn’t been a single pad strapped on at Halas Hall thus far, this is the type of stuff that we need to hear about Justin Fields as he enters year three.
I spent countless hours watching, analyzing, and clipping Justin Fields’ film in 2022 to put together my Fields Film column, and the consistent takeaways were just the things that Williams told Dales he’s seen thus far. Processing speed, decision-making, and accuracy were the three things that held Justin Fields back in 2022, a season in which he put everything else together on tape.
Still, I need to see it. This is exciting and exhilarating in theory. But we have to see it translate to the real thing.
So, what does this mean for the Bears?
It means that it’s excellent to be excited and optimistic. It’s also wise to consider that a nine-win season and a division title in a weak field for the Jaguars was propelled by everyone getting hot simultaneously and a historically good offseason. So, things could have quickly gone drastically different for Jacksonville had it not been for their red-hot finish to the season.
Could the Bears’ version of the Jaguars’ perfect storm be brewing? Sure. And Bears fans should undoubtedly be rooting for it. But context is important. Considering the “how” is equally as (if not more) crucial to the conversation as the parallels that can be drawn from the year-over-year record.
The Bears put together a strong offseason. They spent, and for the most part, they spent well. They also had one of my favorite draft classes in 2023. But that’s just half of the recipe, and we don’t even know if that half will come out of the over as good as their predecessors did last season.
There are so many unknowns to be answered.
Does it look like a similar path can be forged? There’s no doubt about it. But let’s not crown the Bears the Cinderella team of the 2023 season just yet.
Besides, if we did, would it even be any fun?
