NEWSLETTER
With NFL free agency opening next week, it’s time to take a swing at predicting where Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and the biggest names will land when the 2024 NFL QB Carousel stops.
Predicting the 2024 NFL QB Carousel
Kirk Cousins
2023 Team: Minnesota Vikings
The Atlanta Falcons need a quarterback. New head coach Raheem Morris said, pretty bluntly, last week at the NFL Scouting Combine that lousy quarterback play is why Arthur Smith and his staff were fired after the 2023 season.
“If we had better quarterback play, I may not be standing here at the podium,” Morris told reporters at the Combine last week. You can’t walk that one back. Morris and the Falcons have to get a quarterback now, and I think they’ll go the veteran route with Kirk Cousins.
Cousins is 35 and coming off an Achilles injury, but he’s returned to football drills and is expected to be ready in 2024. He’ll be as good of a bridge option as the Falcons can find this offseason. With the top quarterbacks likely off the board when they’re on the clock at No. 8 and their interest in trading for Justin Fields seemingly low, Cousins seems like the best fit for Atlanta.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Baker Mayfield
2023 Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield had an excellent season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023; all indications are that he would like to remain there long-term. That’s what I think will happen. Baker finally has a home in Tampa Bay. I expect the two sides to get an extension done.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Wilson
2023 Team: Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos released Russell Wilson on Monday, and while everyone is working hard to pinpoint his next landing spot, they’re doing so under the assumption that he will be a long-term starting quarterback.
Like Kirk Cousins, Wilson will get a one to two-year deal from a team needing a bridge quarterback. That team is the Las Vegas Raiders. Antonio Pierce has commented similarly to Raheem Morris about his team’s quarterback play this offseason. He’s said he isn’t interested in a “Band-Aid” at quarterback, but he may not have a choice given his team’s position in the draft this year.
Pierce could bring Wilson in and have him start for them this season while they kick the can on the long-term answer at quarterback to 2025.
Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Fields
2023 Team: Chicago Bears
I hate to say it, but I had difficulty deciding on a landing spot for Justin Fields while I was hashing this all out. I firmly believe the Falcons have Kirk Cousins at the top of their quarterback wish list. If they’re not interested in moving into the top three-to-five in the draft for a quarterback, then I don’t know why they would spend draft picks on a lottery ticket in Justin Fields.
For all the love that Bears fans have for Fields — rightfully so; he’s a likable guy — the rest of the league sees him for what he is on tape: a limited quarterback. The market is nothing like it was forecasted at the end of the season by the national insiders, and right now, it seems that the Bears’ best chance at a decent return for Fields is a desperate move by a team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the only team that fits that mold for me. Mike Tomlin is making it seem like he’s content with running things back with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, but I believe that’s a front, and they’re hoping that Ryan Poles gets desperate and comes down on his ask for Fields.
I’m thinking, maybe, a third-round pick and a conditional future pick that could be a second-rounder if Fields meets specific passing benchmarks from the Steelers for Justin Fields. Chicago will have to get creative here to maximize their return for Fields. There’s not enough good tape as a passer to justify the originally speculated return for Fields, and I think we’re seeing that play out right now.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
Gardner Minshew
2023 Team: Indianapolis Colts
Gardner Minshew put together a nice season in Indianapolis after Anthony Richardson went down, but I still see Minshew as a backup in this league—a very good one at that. In fact, he’s probably the best backup on the open market this season, and I can see him making somewhere between $8 and $12 million as the backup on a contending team. The Jets are the first obvious choice, but I think he’ll end up in Minnesota.
With Kirk Cousins heading to Atlanta, I have the Vikings taking a quarterback with their first-round pick, but having a veteran like Minshew in the building gives Minnesota the option to allow that quarterback to ease into the starting role while also providing them with the best No. 2 in football.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
Ryan Tannehill
2023 Team: Tennessee Titans
Tannehill’s time in Tennessee has come to a close, but I can see him fitting in with the Jets as a reliable and competent backup for Aaron Rodgers next season.
Prediction: New York Jets
Jacoby Brissett
2023 Team: Washington Commanders
Jacoby Brissett’s days of starting in the NFL are over, but he’s a solid backup quarterback. Washington is likely taking a quarterback at No. 2 in April, and Brissett would be an excellent veteran to have in the quarterback room for Dan Quinn and the Commanders next season.
Prediction: Washington Commanders
Jameis Winston
2023 Team: New Orleans Saints
In a recent interview with Pardon My Take, Winston opened up about what he sees for his future in the NFL. He said he loved his time in New Orleans but wants another shot at being a starter in the NFL. At 30, Winson’s may not be anyone’s long-term plan, but he could be a nice bridge for a team waiting until the following offseason to draft a quarterback.
A reunion with Sean Payton in Denver would perfectly fit Winston. I think the Broncos will pass on a quarterback in the first round, and Winston could serve as a starter for the 2024 season and then a backup and teacher to the eventual long-term quarterback in Denver. Payton brought Winston to New Orleans in 2020, and they spent two seasons together before Payton left New Orleans.
In 2021, Winston started seven games for Payton in New Orleans before he tore his ACL. He was 5-2 with 1,170 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Tyrod Taylor
2023 Team: New York Giants
With Ryan Tannehill heading to New York and the Giants adding a quarterback in the draft (more on that later), Tyrod Taylor heading to Tennessee to back up Will Levis seems like a good fit for the veteran Taylor this offseason.
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
Drew Lock
2023 Team: Seattle Seahawks
Drew Lock looked competent when called upon last season, while Geno Smith was dealing with some injury issues. However, Lock isn’t likely to find a starting job this offseason, so why not stick around where it’s familiar?
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Huntley
2023 Team: Baltimore Ravens
Like Lock, there won’t be any starting jobs for Huntely this offseason, so why break up a good thing? Huntley has been an adequate backup for Lamar Jackson and fits Baltimore’s offense when called upon. I see Huntely staying in Baltimore as Lamar Jackson’s backup in 2024.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
Josh Dobbs
2023 Team: Arizona Cardinals/Minnesota Vikings
What a story Josh Dobbs was in 2023. But as quickly as his stock shot up, it crashed, and he was eventually benched in Minnesota. I think Dobbs is an average backup quarterback, and returning to Arizona to play behind Kyler Murray in 2024 makes sense.
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Joe Flacco
2023 Team: Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco saved the Cleveland Browns season last year. Even though Cleveland’s season ended disastrously against Houston in the Wild Card Round, and his starting days are behind him, he’s got plenty to offer as a backup and mentor.
Albert Breer reported last month Flacco intends to continue playing for at least another season or two. If the Bears take Caleb Williams (or another rookie QB) at No. 1, they would be wise to splurge on the backup and bring in a veteran who can sling it when he needs to and has plenty of experience to offer a rookie quarterback.
Prediction: Chicago Bears
Jimmy Garoppolo
2023 Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Garoppolo’s days as a starter are over, but he’s a solid No. 2 with gas left in the tank at this point in his career. A return to New England seems like a good fit for Garoppolo, even if it’s in a likely backup role.
Prediction: New England Patriots
