NEWSLETTER
This Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl of the NFL Playoffs in Phoenix, Arizona. Get in on the sports betting action with our favorite +1840 same-game parlay for the Super Bowl.
NFL Same Game Parlay: 49ers-Eagles Super Bowl +1840 pick
The Super Bowl is finally here! After a wild 2022 season, we are left with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles currently sit as the favorites but there are plenty of other ways to bet on the game outside of picking a team. This includes same game parlays.
Same Game Parlays are a fun way to get involved with potentially massive payouts. This one for the Chiefs and Eagles game pays out more than 18 times your wager!
If you enjoy this breakdown, read our full FREE breakdown of the Super Bowl!
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+1840 Eagles-Chiefs same game parlay
- Over 50.5 points (-115)
- Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (-140)
- Travis Kelce 100+ receiving yards
- Miles Sanders 80+ rushing yards
Over 50.5 points
The total on this game opened at 49.5 and peaked at 51.5 total points but has now settled in at 50.5. I have no idea who bet the under to push the total down but we can take advantage of it. A 27-24 final score or more gets us there. The Chiefs and Eagles are first and second in points scored on the season and both have a clear advantage offensively.
The Eagles’ offense has a massive advantage in the trenches for the running game. When the Chiefs’ offense uses multiple tight ends, they are statistically the best unit of any team in the league. We already saw Dallas expose the Eagles’ defense using similar concepts.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions
Goedert has gone over 4.5 receptions in 8-of-14 games this season. If we look at the games he didn’t catch five or more passes, five of the six games were against Dallas, Washington, and New Orleans. Those teams rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, at defending tight ends and two of them were with Gardner Minshew at QB.
Now he matches up against the Chiefs who are 19th in efficiency at defending tight ends, allowing the 6th most targets per game to the position. I also expect KC to bring the heat and blitz Hurts meaning he may have to get the ball out quickly to a guy like Goedert. On top of this, Kansas City plays middle-of-the-field open coverage at the second-highest rate in the league, meaning cover 2 or cover 4. Dallas Goedert leads the team against those coverages with a 90% catch rate and 2.0 yards per route run. Unless we see a massive blowout from Philly they should have to throw the ball enough to get Goedert involved for 5-or-more receptions.
Travis Kelce 100+ receiving yards
JuJu Smith Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney were all injured last week and It’s unlikely all of them roll into this game at 100%. If he wasn’t already, Kelce will be the focal point of the offense against a defense that doesn’t match up against him particularly well. Efficiency metrics say the Eagles are 6th at defending the position but they haven’t really played anyone of substance at the position and are 17th in yards per game allowed to the position.
The best tight ends they faced were probably Pat Freiermuth (4 receptions for 57 yards), Zach Ertz (6 receptions for 48 yards), and Dalton Shultz (3 receptions for 43 yards). George Kittle’s performance last week with the Niners’ incapacity to throw doesn’t mean anything here but all the other players at least met expectations.
The Eagles’ strength in the secondary is on the perimeters with James Bradberry and Darius Slay while Avonte Maddox has been good in the slot but stands 5’9, 184 pounds. So, that’s not going to work. Beyond the matchup, Kelce has absolutely annihilated when it has mattered most in the playoffs. His stats from the past three seasons in the playoffs (8 games) are insane.
He is averaging 104.5 receiving yards per game in his last 8 playoff games and has 95-or-more receiving yards in 7-of-8 games.
Miles Sanders 80+ rushing yards
We are getting a discount after a blowout win over the 49ers. Kenneth Gainwell has seen more usage lately but mostly in garbage time.
Sanders now draws a significantly easier matchup against a team that could get dominated in the trenches. The Chiefs rank just 15th in run defense DVOA but I think context is important here. They have played a lot of teams who are below average at running the ball and none as good as the Eagles. The Eagles rank 1st in rushing DVOA at 15%.
The next best team the Chiefs have faced all season is the Bengals who rank 4th but their DVOA is less than half the Eagles, at 7%. You might think that them shutting down the Bengals’ running game last week is a bad sign but this was with the Bengals missing 3 starting offensive linemen.
The Chiefs have played 6 games against teams who have top-16 rushing offenses.
One of the games was against Cincy without 3 starting offensive linemen, and one was against the Raiders with Stidham.
In the other 4 games, running backs combined for 495 rushing yards on 80 carries (6.18 YPC)
Anytime they have played a good rushing team, they have largely gotten crushed on the ground, and remember, the Eagles are significantly better at running than all of those teams.
If you enjoy this breakdown, read our full FREE breakdown of the Super Bowl!
You can find this bet at FanDuel Sportsbook and instantly get $150 when you bet $5! Take advantage of this awesome offer and click here to sign up!
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