NEWSLETTER
We’re just getting started in the Blackhawks’ offseason, but I think we already need to have a conversation. A frank, real discussion about how and where we place our hopes and, more importantly, how we embrace our reality.
Over the couple weeks since the Blackhawks’ season ended, there have been moments where we sometimes take a half-hearted joke too seriously and show our cards. There have been other moments where a good conversation ignores one key ingredient: reality.
Over the weekend, when the Toronto Maple Leafs were melting down on their bench, I tweeted a joke. If you’re into lip reading, you know what William Nylander says to (presumably) Mitchell Marner here, but my tweet is in that “close enough” territory where the letters work so we can have a little fun.
If you read the replies, a whole lotta folks weighed in with their a) dislike of Marner (disagree, but okay), b) sudden acceptance of Jones as a quality defenseman, and c) concerns about the money that would change hands in a hypothetical Seth Jones for Mitchell Marner trade. All of which misses the part of this being a joke. So apparently I missed the mark. Apologies.
Reality: I don’t think that trade is on either front office’s radar for a number of reasons. Marner, 26, has one year left on a contract with a $10.9M cap hit. At this point, with Nylander and Auston Matthews extended long term, I’m not sure if Marner fits financially in the Leafs’ long term plan. However, trading that cap hit — again, for only one more year — for six more years of Jones’ $9.5M would be incredibly counterproductive for the Leafs if they want to have some cap flexibility. So, in the real world, it’s almost impossible to imagine Toronto wanting that deal (even recognizing John Tavares’ deal also has only one year left).
I like Marner a lot. I wouldn’t mind him on the Blackhawks. I think he gets a lot more crap than he deserves this time of year because he plays for the Leafs (kinda like Jones gets more crap than he should because of his cap hit). If you don’t like a guy being emotional on the bench when his team is flat and playing like **** then I can’t wait to show you some highlights from Blackhawks’ playoff games 15 years ago.
Which brings me to the second talking point that’s had its share of buzz on the socials over the past week: the Blackhawks’ goaltending situation.
Last week I wrote about the options Chicago has to improve in that area for next season. Lots of the replies on social media have come down to what feels like an easy question: Jaxson Stauber or Arvid Söderblom? Which, in a vacuum, is a fun conversation to have. But we don’t live in a vacuum.
Stauber absolutely had a good stretch run in Rockford. There’s a chance he gets another contract from Rockford or Chicago. But improving the situation, in my mind, is looking for a goaltender who isn’t Stauber or Söderblom to provide some stability and a more known commodity.
Söderblom has one year remaining on his contract; Stauber is a restricted free agent whenever Rockford’s season ends. If the front office and coaches had any feelings that Stauber might be a guy for the organization in the short term beyond this season, one would have to think there were a dozen spots where his name could have been called this past season as Söderblom struggled. But everyone was aligned with Söderblom staying in the NHL and continuing to work on his game.
Also, please remember that if Söderblom is that bad, “just trade him” doesn’t work to make room on the NHL roster for Stauber. If he isn’t good enough to be the backup on the second-worst team in the league, which team is going to see him as a viable option?
To make a trade, you need two interested parties. So either Söderblom is going to help another team because there’s still development that could happen — in which case, maybe keep him here and let him continue developing? — or the value is low enough that he’s in the AHL for the final year of his contract and a veteran comes in to work with Petr Mrazek.
And if you want Stauber to get a chance to compete, we need to acknowledge that there’s a really good chance that keeping the same four goaltenders in the organization next season leads to similar results on the ice. Because that’s what status quo is (ask our Bulls writer about that fun).
Including Rockford’s Game One loss in this year’s playoffs, Stauber has 49 AHL games and six (6) NHL games of professional experience. It takes time for goalies to be ready. Stauber turned 25 on Saturday (happy belated). Corey Crawford turned 25 in the middle of the 2009-10 season. At the end of that year, Crawford had appeared in eight (8) NHL games and 255 AHL games.
Why do I take the time to write this post? Because folks get heated when reality’s head breaks the surface of the water and interrupts a discussion that feels great but, in reality, doesn’t work.
I try to employ context as much as possible when considering options and weighing opportunities. Contracts matter. And the timeline the Blackhawks are on is the most important part of any equation. As the Hawks look to move the franchise forward into the next stage of the build, we’ll all have great ideas to “fix” things. But let’s also take a moment to recognize whether or not those ideas would actually work.
