NEWSLETTER
Since December 23rd, I’ve had a tweet saved in my drafts. The caption “Lauri Markkanen in the locker room” sits right above that famous video of a high school football player yelling, “I THINK I GOT MY SWAGGER BACK.”
Despite three solid games to start the season, I hesitated to tweet it out thanks to the Bulls three-game losing streak. Then, I considered pressing send after his 29-point performance (and the Bulls 16-point win) over the Dallas Mavericks. But, once again, I chose to wait. He went on to post back-to-back 30-point games in January, and I just completely forgot to take advantage of the opportunity after both games. But no big deal. Surely, there would be other chances, right? After all, Markkanen was playing some of his best basketball since the 2018-19 season. He was finally starting to make the most out of his contract year. Wrong.
On February 5th, Markkanen would exit the Bulls 123-119 loss to the Orlando Magic with a shoulder injury. And he’s only now eyeing a return. But for as thrilled we are about his return, playing just 14 of 34 games to start his fourth-year in the NBA is not what anyone wanted to see, especially this front office.
Markkanen’s camp and the Bulls front office failed to reach an extension this offseason, thus sending him toward restricted free agency this summer. The two sides reportedly never even came close to a deal. In fact, NBC Sports Chicago’s K.C. Johnson reported back in December that the two were $4 million apart in just the first year of the contract alone. Markkanen’s team was clearly trying to sell the Bulls on his future potential, while the new front office was trying to avoid overpaying for a player who just had a career-worst season. Markkanen, then, entered the year knowing he had to prove he was worth a big pay raise, and while his numbers have trended in a much better direction so far, I have to imagine it hasn’t come during a sample size that provides any sort of comfort to this front office.
Indeed, Markkanen has averaged 19.1 points and 6.1 rebounds over his 14 games played this season. He is shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from behind the arc. Even more encouraging, however, is his newfound efficiency around the rim. The big man is finishing 78 percent of his shots inside, which places him in the 88th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. For reference, Markkanen had never shot better than 65 percent over his first three seasons in the league. What this tells us is that Markkanen has not only been more focused on using his crafty seven-foot frame to attack opposing defenses but that he is doing it successfully. But again, this is over 14 games.
There is no question that those numbers are positive, but we do have to factor in the aforementioned sample size and question what this front office deems positive enough. The reason I say that is because the NBA trade deadline is a little over two weeks away. Only 10 games separate this front office from having to make some tough decisions, and we have to wonder if Markkanen has done enough to justify not being one of those tough decisions.
We should have no questions that other teams are going to be interested in Markkanen. He is a 23-year-old who still possesses a physical frame and an undeniably intriguing skillset. If a team can tap into his full potential, they could very well have an All-Star on their hands. Arturas Karnisovas and Co. have to be the first to decide whether that full potential is obtainable, though. Not to mention, how much money (and roster space (and time)) they should invest toward marking that happen.
I’m not sure what that number should be, and I doubt the front office knows either. Finding that range was probably an enormous goal for Karnisovas heading into this season. Unfortunately, he probably also expected to have a better idea by the trade deadline – (a.k.a. the last opportunity to get something in return for Markkanen if the plan is not to extend him).
And that is why I think these next 10 games could hold a lot of weight for The Finnisher. While I ultimately don’t believe the Bulls would look to trade him (or that a 10+14 game sample would be enough to TOTALLY convince AKME one way or the other), we have to at least consider the possibility given the status of his contract. We also shouldn’t completely ignore the fact that the Bulls went 8-5 in his absence. Does that tell me the Bulls are a better team without him? No. But could a case be made that they don’t need him for a potential playoff push? Sure.
Basically, this post is just me working through a thought experiment. Razor scooter to my shin and I don’t see Markkanen going anywhere. After all, Karnisovas did say in his pre-All-Star bream media session that he “can’t wait” for Markkanen to return to the floor and “help this team win games” (h/t NBC Sports Chicago) …
… At the same time, Karnisovas is also the one who said he would like for Markkanen to be a part of the organization for the long-haul, and he would make every effort to get an extension done. I’m not calling him a liar, I’m just pointing out that things can change, especially when a deadline approaches.
