NEWSLETTER
During the first week of training camp, we discussed the Patrick Williams contract situation. This was undoubtedly one of the preseason’s biggest storylines for the Chicago Bulls, as the deadline to sign the fourth-year forward to an extension is *looks at watch* today (Oct. 23)!
As the hours tick off the clock, it becomes increasingly likely that Williams’ 2023-24 campaign will be a contract year. While it’s plausible that negotiations were held between the two parties, one big reason nothing feels imminent is because of what ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on the most recent episode of The Lowe Post podcast. I’ve already seen a handful of outlets run with the first quote scene below. But, for the sake of full clarity, I made sure to transcribe the next comments made by ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Lowe.
Lowe: “I’m hearing Patrick Williams wants big, big numbers – like starts with a 2 and isn’t 20 kind of stuff, potentially.”
Marks: “Well, here is the one thing, though, that you have to look at. Basically, that’s 50 percent of what the max could be for a guy signing a max contract, where the caps going to go.”
Lowe: “If it’s 20. If it’s 25, or 26, or 27, then it’s more.”
Of course, the two are talking about how much money Patrick Williams is looking for on his next contract. Some took Lowe’s words to mean that the former No. 4 overall pick wants upwards of $200 million (like draft class members Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and Tyrese Haliburton). But this exchange with Marks makes it clear that Patrick Williams is actually seeking a deal that features an average annual value within the mid-to-high 20s. I can see how that would be misunderstood, but I’m pretty sure this is the correct interpretation.
This becomes even more evident when we consider that Lowe and Marks were using Devin Vassell’s contract as a barometer. The Spurs’ wing signed a five-year, $136 million deal a couple of weeks back, and Lowe stated this contract possibly threw a “grenade” into rookie-scale extension negotiations around the league.
Indeed, my full expectation would be that Williams’ camp would go to the Bulls and point right toward Vassell’s contract as a comp. I have to imagine this is also what Jaden McDaniel’s agents did, as the Minnesota Timberwolves forward just signed a nearly identical five-year, $136 million contract, per The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
The problem for Patrick Williams, however, is that both Vassell and McDaniels may have more on their resume. While Vassell played only 38 games for the Spurs last season, he averaged 18.2 points with 3.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Not to mention, he has arguably reached knockdown shooter status, hitting 38.7 percent of his 7.0 3-point attempts per game in 2022-23.
McDaniels is a closer comp to Williams at this point in his career. Most of his value comes on the defensive end, where he sat second on the Timberwolves in blocks last season behind Rudy Gobert. But whereas Williams is still an above-average defender, McDaniels has moved into the elite conversation last season. The six-foot-nine 23-year-old was one of the league’s top defenders and held a +1.5 defensive estimated plus-minus, which ranked in the 91st percentile, per Dunks & Threes. We also watched him average 12.1 points per game and shoot 38.9 percent from downtown, proving he can be a real two-way asset.
It isn’t too difficult to imagine a world where Williams proves to be as effective as McDaniels, but the fact that McDaniels has already taken that leap is going to make it that much easier for his camp to haggle. So, again, my guess is that Williams came to the Bulls asking for the $27 million AAV that his draft classmates received. Meanwhile, the Bulls have presumably wanted to keep things far closer to the $20 million (or even lower) range, citing that he just hasn’t done enough up until this point.
With that being the case, we could be in store for a re-run of what we saw Chicago go through last season with Coby White. And, to their credit, that went pretty darn well! White was motivated to have his best season yet, and the team’s new starting point guard did just that and earned a fresh three-year deal.
Now, could there be a greater risk in allowing Patrick Williams to hit restricted free agency if we consider the upside of his capabilities? Absolutely! Not only will the Bulls miss out on the new CBA rule that allows teams to lock in players to a five-year deal on a rookie scale extension, but some teams could try to run the price up on the Bulls next summer if Williams has a strong year. In that event, however, I guess the Bulls should be happy to meet that price tag!
More on Patrick Williams …
