How Much Money is Brandon McCarthy’s Head Injury Worth? and Other Bullets

I’ll have more thoughts on last evening’s roster moves, as well as the newest Cubs pitching prospect, later this morning. Also, there’s a fresh BN Podcast on the way today. Until then, Bullets …

  • Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs took a very long look at Brandon McCarthy’s unique free agent situation, which is of note to the Cubs for obvious reasons. Specifically, Sullivan would like to be able to know what kind of impact McCarthy’s concussion/brain surgery thing will have on his contract, if any: “We probably won’t be able to learn much from the contract that McCarthy ends up signing, because he represents a sample size of one. This is a thought experiment because it’s not something we’ll ever be able to observe in real life. Say there are 100 Brandon McCarthys. Of those, 50 are clones of the current Brandon McCarthy. The other 50 are clones of the current Brandon McCarthy, but without the head injury. The line drive just missed, and McCarthy kept on pitching through the end of the season. We’ll refer to the first group as Group A, and to the second group as Group B. On average, Group B signs a free-agent contract worth $X million. On average, Group A signs a free-agent contract worth $Y million. Is $Y million equal to $X million? If not, what is the difference? How much lower is Y than X?”
  • It’s a tricky question that Sullivan asks, and one I’ve wrestled with as well. When discussing this injury, specifically, how do you figure a guy’s value? It’s not like it’s an elbow injury or a shoulder injury, for which there would be an obvious discount on the market. But, at the same time, it’s not your run-of-the-mill concussion (if there is such a thing). It takes only one team to give McCarthy his “full” market value for the discussion to be entirely moot, and Cameron’s right: because of that, we’ll never really know the impact. My question for you: are you expecting that the Cubs would get a discount on McCarthy because of the head injury, specifically? He was already going to sign for less than you might expect, because of his other injury history. But should that number come down even more? I’m still firmly in the pro-McCarthy camp, but that’s because I believe he’ll be signing for something in the two-year, $20 million range, at the top. If it’s more than that, then the “winning” team, to me, clearly isn’t concerned about the head injury (or maybe even the rest of the injury history, either). Obviously this whole discussion feels a little untoward, but it’s a necessary evil.
  • The MLBullets at BCB look at one of the more notable roster moves from yesterday: the Mariners dumping Chone Figgins. And, no, I don’t think he’s worth anything more than a Spring Training invite (and, even then, I’m dubious).
  • A comments reminder: for your own good, and the good of the community, learn to spot trolls and then ignore them. They tend to post incessantly for short bursts of time. They tend to try and bait you into arguments that make no sense. They tend to spell poorly and use a kind of “grammar” that few would recognize as communication. Their sole purpose for commenting is to get a rise out of folks, and not to genuinely discuss the Cubs. When you see someone doing this, please ignore them. When you engage, you’re giving them exactly what they want: your attention. Also remember that just because you disagree with someone doesn’t make them a troll. This Bullet refers to a very specific subset of folks who get their jollies not from actually discussing the Cubs, but instead from baiting stupid fights.
  • But to put the community back in a positive light, here’s something awesome from BN’er TWC:
  • See folks? If you wear your BN shirt everywhere, you might find new friends all across the country.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 7, Red Sox 1 – April 26, 2024

    Cubs win again! And it was a breezy 7-1 road victory over the Red Sox ... perfect for a relaxing Friday night. I don't think it'll be this easy forever, but the Cubs are really buying themselves some breathing room...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Red Sox (6:10 CT) – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs are starting a new series tonight against the Red Sox, with Shota Imanaga going up against Boston's righty Kutter Crawford. Here's a look at the Cubs lineup for game one at Fenway. Chicago Cubs...

    Cubs Farm Report | April 26, 2024: South Bend Shutout the Lone Victory on Thursday

    Brody McCullough, Sam Armstrong and Chase Watkins teamed up to throw a shutout for the South Bend Cubs in the only victory of the day for the system on Thursday. That and more in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm...

    Hayden Wesnasty Is Back and Looking Sharper Than Ever

    Hayden Wenseski is not the only scoreless member of the Cubs bullpen right now. In fact, both Mark Leiter Jr. (12.1 IP, 0ER) and Keegan Thompson (7.0 IP, 0ER) technically have Wesneski beat (6.1 IP, 0ER). Heck, even Yency Almonte...

    Chicago Cubs Sign Righty Pitching Prospect Nico Zeglin

    The Chicago Cubs keep adding to the farm system, signing 24-year-old righty Nico Zeglin out of Mexico. Formerly at Gonzaga and then Long Beach State, Zeglin was not drafted in 2023, despite ranking as the 408th best prospect in the...

    Javier Assad Has Kinda Been the Best Pitcher in Baseball Since June of Last Year

    It's become so routine at this point that you almost accept it as a given each time he takes the ball: Javier Assad was really dang solid once again yesterday. Facing a struggling Astros team that nevertheless still has a...

    Heading East: Cubs vs Red Sox Series Preview

    Cubs vs Red Sox — The Brewers keep winning, but the Chicago Cubs are on a roll. Even without Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Cody Bellinger, and Julian Merryweather (among others), the Cubs have won three games in a row, 7...

    Players Weekend Is Coming Back … But Without the Best Part

    I remember a time when Ben Zobrist — of all players — received a formal warning and faced a fine from Major League Baseball, all because he wore ... gasp! All black cleats (a violation of MLB's uniform regulations). Fortunately,...

    Brewers Keep Winning, Cubs Bullpen Turning Way Up (But They Still Need a Closer), and Other Cubs Bullets

    The Brewers are so annoying. Even though the Cubs (16-9) are seven games over .500 and winners in 9 of their last 12 games, including a three-game sweep of the Astros, there's Milwaukee (16-8) ... just quietly sitting there a...

    More Fun with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s First-Hit Home Run

    It is CORRECT to say that an 0-fer to start a player's big league career, even a long 0-fer, does not alone represent who that player is. Young players are going to have adjustment periods. Also hitless stretches happen for...

    Latest News

    The Story Behind the Michael Penix Jr. Pick is One Bears Fans Know All Too Well

    While Chicago Bears fans bask in the glow of two highly celebrated top-10 picks, the Atlanta Falcons are straight-up having a weird draft. First, they selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick. One day later, the...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 7, Red Sox 1 – April 26, 2024

    Cubs win again! And it was a breezy 7-1 road victory over the Red Sox ... perfect for a relaxing Friday night. I don't think it'll be this easy forever, but the Cubs are really buying themselves some breathing room...

    The 2024 NFL Draft (6:00 CT): Bears Picks, Needs, Broadcast Info, More

    Who's ready for another round of NFL Draft watching as a Bears fan? OK, well, how about two rounds? We've got Rounds 2 and 3 coming up. Let's get it popping, friends! 2024 NFL Draft Info Location: Detroit Dates and rounds:...

    Brook Lopez Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pacers – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Friday, April 26, 2024

    Brook Lopez must make two 3-pointers to beat his prop when the Milwaukee Bucks face the Indiana Pacers on Friday at 5:30 PM ET, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs.Brook Lopez's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs....

    Karl-Anthony Towns Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Suns – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Friday, April 26, 2024

    On Friday at 10:30 PM ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves face the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and Karl-Anthony Towns' 3-pointer prop for this matchup requires two treys.Karl-Anthony Towns' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs....

    Kevin Durant Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Timberwolves – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Friday, April 26, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Kevin Durant needs to make three from downtown on Friday, when his Phoenix Suns play the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 10:30 PM ET.Kevin...

    Anthony Edwards Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Suns – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Friday, April 26, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Anthony Edwards must make three from downtown on Friday, when his Minnesota Timberwolves face the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 10:30 PM ET.Anthony Edwards'...

    Devin Booker Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Timberwolves – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Friday, April 26, 2024

    Devin Booker needs to make three 3-pointers to beat his prop when the Phoenix Suns meet the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday at 10:30 PM ET, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs.Devin Booker's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...

    Giants vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The San Francisco Giants (12-14) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (13-13) on Friday to begin a three-game series, with the first pitch at 10:15 PM ET from Oracle Park. The Giants are listed as -144 favorites, while the underdog Pirates have...

    Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Arizona Diamondbacks will take the field against the Seattle Mariners (13-12) on Friday. The game begins at 9:40 PM ET on ARID, with the Diamondbacks listed as -130 favorites on the moneyline.Zac Gallen will get the ball for Arizona...

    more cubs news

    Latest News