Risk vs. Uncertainty, Baez Plus Zobrist, Extensions, Happy Wrigley, and Other Bullets

These Bullets are brought to you by Michael Cerami (that’s me!), which means we must engage in a brief chat about movies before getting into the baseball.

Topic 1: Isn’t Die Hard just the best?

Topic 2: Did anyone else feel like this (movie) award season didn’t feel quite as strong as some of the years past? There were some great movies, to be certain, but overall it felt inferior to last fall/winter.

Topic 3: There is, and I’m not messing with you, a new Vin Diesel-led xXx movie called xXx: Return of Xander Cage. Just F.Y.I.

Okay, baseball.

[adinserter block=”1″]

  • At the Athletic, Rian Watt has a really great piece comparing and contrasting Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist, while looking both backwards (on 2016) and ahead (to 2017): “It’s not hard to zoom out and see the broader story of the Cubs’ talented young core, led by battle-tested veterans and supported by a cast of dedicated professionals, reflected in what’s happening at second base.” Through comments from coaches, the front office, and others, Watt explains what makes each player tick, where they excel and what the future holds for them. Both players bring something to the position that’s both measurable (arm strength, first step, etc.) and immeasurable (leadership, experience, unparalleled baseball instincts). If you’re interested in that pairing in 2017 (how could you not be?), give it a look.
  • When I think back to my days in little league, I can vividly remember all of the advice I was given from the well-intentioned, but mostly-uninformed parents and coaches around the team: “Keep your elbow up!” “Put your elbow down!” “Stop eating that dirt!” But one of the most common refrains was always brought up when that one kid who threw hard was the opposing pitcher for the day: “Don’t worry … the faster the pitch comes in, the harder it goes out.” We all know this to be true, right? Well, not so fast:
  • According to Daren Willman, there’s not nearly as strong of correlation between velocity in and velocity out as we’ve all been led to believe. But who knows, maybe the point of that particular saying was to give little leaguers confidence against superior talent. I say we allow the phrase to stand for now, in the spirit of not permitting the pressure to exceed the pleasure.
  • [adinserter block=”2″]

  • At FanGraphs, Travis Sawchik discusses the difference between risk (the known odds that something might go wrong/right) and uncertainty (risk that is hard to measure; odds that are unknown) as it relates to Tyson Ross and his recent contract with the Rangers. Despite having become one of the more valuable pitchers in the game over the past few seasons, Ross was able to secure a mere one-year, $6 million contract because of the uncertainty that comes with his particular injury (it’s a rare case). Other pitchers with far less Major League success and/or far more significant histories of injury (including multiple Tommy John surgeries for some) received more money and more years this offseason, simply because teams were more willing to pay for the risk they’re capable of assessing. It’s a good, enlightening read and there’s plenty more in there, you’ll want to check it out.
  • CNN named it one of the 15 happiest places on Earth, and in 80 days, we’ll see you there:
  • The Angels have extended 29-year-old right fielder Kole Calhoun to a three-year, $26 million extension with a $14 million option for 2020. The extension buys out the three remaining years of control via arbitration (2017, 2018, and 2019) and potentially one year of free agency (2020), when Calhoun will be 32-years-old. Although arbitration extensions like this one (which buys out just one or two years of free agency) are something we talk about in reference to the Cubs young core a lot (cost certainty is almost as important as locking up players to long-term deals), I’m not quite sure Calhoun’s deal is much of a proxy. He has been worth about 4.0 WAR/season for the last three years (so he is very good), but he is about 3-4 years older than the Cubs core who we’d be looking at for similar deals.
  • He also was drafted with a five-figure signing bonus (unlike the Cubs core, who almost all received big multi-million dollar bonuses) meaning that he’s made a heck of a lot less throughout his career (so far) and was undoubtedly thrilled to lock in life-changing money as soon as he could.
  • [adinserter block=”3″]

  • The 2017 ZiPS projects for the Phillies are out and they’re one of the more interesting teams to look at, considering what we know of their potential in the near future. It’s not quite clear if they’ll have the arms to seriously compete in the NL East right off the bat, but if things break their way they continue to be the type of team that could flip a switch over the course of an offseason (perhaps post-2017?) using their financial might in free agency and some growth from core players (not unlike the Chicago Cubs did from 2014-2015).
  • If you missed it earlier, the Reds are trading away another starting pitcher. Luis thinks Hall of Famer voters may have missed out on Lee Smith.
  • At Baseball is Fun, Luis ran through a series of Pudge Rodriguez’s best throws from his career – man that guy had an arm – and even shares the video of him getting the call about the HOF yesterday. Awesome and emotional stuff.
  • And to that end, I also welcomed all three of the newest members of the Hall of Fame, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, and Rodriguez – they each have accomplished some truly amazing things throughout their careers.
  • Over at The Ten-Yard Line, here are your Bears Bullets, if you’re ready to start turning the corner on this past season.
  • Last April, I got a puppy named Henry. And on the most recent Black Friday, I bought the best vacuum I could find. The two are not unrelated. And if you do have a little pup of your own, I strongly endorse the Dyson V6 Animal cord-free vacuum. This thing is a tank, and was easily my best purchase of 2016. If that one’s a bit too pricey for you, one of Amazon’s deals of the day is a Bissell 1984 AirRam Cordless Vacuum – I’ve never used it, so I can’t say it’ll be great, but the reviews are pretty good. This is the most I’ve ever discussed vacuums before.
  • Brett Taylor contributed to this post.

    [adinserter block=”4″]

    written by

    Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

    more cubs news

    Cubs Announce (Part of) the Rotation for Atlanta

    Meaning no offense to Kyle Hendricks, but if you had to choose a veteran right-handed in the Cubs' rotation to face the Atlanta Braves this week, you're probably going with Jameson Taillon. We may never know if that was part...

    Wake Up and Watch the Cubs Make Their Mothers Proud

    There is something about seeing Cubs players homer with pink bats that makes me smile extra wide. I suppose it's PROBABLY at least a little because this is one of my favorite Cubs memories: https://twitter.com/ChiSportsDay/status/1788291377333170611 Javy Báez, with the pink...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 5, Pirates 4 – May 12, 2024

    It's Mother's Day. I'm hanging with the family. I don't feel like being as pissed off as a game like that threatened to make me. So I am QUITE relieved by that 10th inning (and the fact that the Cubs...

    Christopher Morel Kicks Off Mother’s Day With Some Love

    I'll just presume he was sending this one out for mom. And I'll also presume that the knee is indeed feeling good. Home run number nine on the season for Christopher Morel: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1789713524052087082

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (12:35 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs have played thirteen series so far this season, and this is already their eighth rubber match. Let's see if Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs can bring this one in. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, SS...

    Cubs Roster Move: Kyle Hendricks Activated to Start Today

    No surprises here, as the decision to start Kyle Hendricks this afternoon against the Pirates was made yesterday, but the news has officially hit the wire, and here it is. Kyle Hendricks Activated Kyle Hendricks is returning from his short...

    Horrible History, Morel’s Knee, Almonte’s Shoulder, Hoerner, Wesneski, Hendricks, Mervis, and Other Cubs Bullets

    Happy Mother's Day to the mothers among you, and to the mothers in my life! I'll be doing some extra family stuff today, so I'm gonna cruise through these Bullets ... Up front, because this was certainly the thing most...

    Kyle Hendricks Will Start for the Big League Cubs Tomorrow

    The Sunday TBD has been D'd, and it's going to be Kyle Hendricks coming back an outing early. Instead of making another rehab start at Iowa, Hendricks is going to be activated from the IL to rejoin the rotation tomorrow:...

    Enhanced Box Score: Pirates 10, Cubs 9 – May 11, 2024

    The Cubs came within 90 feet of keeping that ridiculous game going. No dice. Stupid game. Early on, it just kinda seemed like the Cubs might lose a perfectly normal - bad, but normal - game. Justin Steele did not...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (3:05 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — After a little tease yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is actually, officially in the Cubs lineup today. And he'll be greeted with a tough matchup against the top pitching prospect in Major League Baseball. Welcome back! Chicago Cubs Lineup:...

    Latest News

    Tigers vs. Marlins Probable Starting Pitchers – May 13

    The Detroit Tigers (20-20) and the Miami Marlins (11-31) face off at Comerica Park on Monday at 6:40 PM ET, beginning a three-game series.The probable starters are Matt Manning for the Tigers and Sixto Sanchez (0-1) for the Marlins.Tigers vs....

    Braves vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – May 13

    The Chicago Cubs (24-17) kick off a three-game series on Monday against the Atlanta Braves (24-13). The contest begins at 7:20 PM ET at Truist Park.The Braves will look to Reynaldo Lopez (2-1) versus the Cubs and Shota Imanaga (5-0).Braves...

    Phillies vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers – May 13

    The New York Mets (19-20) kick off a four-game series on Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies (28-13). The matchup begins at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field.This contest's pitching matchup is set, as the Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez (2-3)...

    Red Sox vs. Rays Probable Starting Pitchers – May 13

    The Tampa Bay Rays (20-21) kick off a four-game series on Monday against the Boston Red Sox (21-19). The contest starts at 7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park.The probable starters are Kutter Crawford (2-1) for the Red Sox and Zach...

    Best NBA Prop Bets Today – Monday, May 13, 2024

    The NBA playoff schedule today, which includes the Boston Celtics squaring off against the Cleveland Cavaliers as one of two matchups, is not one to miss.If you're looking for NBA prop bets for today's games, we're here to assist you....

    Cubs Announce (Part of) the Rotation for Atlanta

    Meaning no offense to Kyle Hendricks, but if you had to choose a veteran right-handed in the Cubs' rotation to face the Atlanta Braves this week, you're probably going with Jameson Taillon. We may never know if that was part...

    Connor Bedard is Dominating the World Championship, Reichel Arrives, Bruins Lose, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

    Another day, another load of Connor Bedard highlights from the World Championships in Czechia. Remember when the Blackhawks' star rookie scored twice in his first appearance of the tournament and we were all like "whoa that's cool!" Well, he did...

    Best MLB Prop Bets Today, May 13, 2024

    The Chicago Cubs versus the Atlanta Braves is a game to catch on a Monday MLB slate that has 14 thrilling matchups.MLB prop bets for today's games are available, so if you're interested in placing a bet or building a...

    Orioles vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – May 13

    The Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) kick off a three-game series on Monday against the Baltimore Orioles (26-13). The matchup begins at 6:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.The probable starters are Corbin Burnes (3-2) for the Orioles and...

    How to Watch Celtics vs. Cavaliers: Live Stream or on TV

    The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are playing in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, with Game 4 next to come.Last time out, the Celtics bested the Cavaliers 106-93 on Saturday. Jayson Tatum paced the Celtics with 33 points,...

    more cubs news