Baseball America recently ran an article suggesting that teams are starting to once again draft high school pitchers high in the first round because they have decided that is a good way to develop an ace, and developing an ace is a lot cheaper than signing one. The article goes on to suggest that modern data and analysis methods have made drafting high school pitching less risky, and that most aces are in fact drafted early in the first round.
But are those claims actually supported by data? I don’t think there is any question that drafting an ace is cheaper than signing one, but other than that we can turn to good, old fashioned numbers.
The number of high school pitchers drafted in the top ten picks by year are: 2017 – 2, 2016 – 4, 2015 – 1, 2014 – 2,
2013 – 3. And if I jump back to an era before the modern data revolution, say 1997 to 2002, the number ranged from 0 to 5. I’m not seeing any clear pattern, but further study would be needed to say for sure.
As far as risk is concerned, this would be tough to say. But I can say that drafting high school pitching still seems like the riskiest draft strategy, particularly for a team fortunate enough to have a top ten pick.
As for where in the draft aces are drafted and whether or not they are drafted out of high school, those points we can take together. Here are the ten top pitchers in baseball by fWAR from 2014 through today. That’s probably not the best way to find who the aces are, but it’ll do for now. Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Price, Arrieta, Lester, Quintana, Greinke, and Bumgarner. Yes, there are three Cubs on that list. Nice.
Kershaw, Greinke, and Bumgarner are the only three drafted in the top ten picks out of high school. Lester (2nd round) is the only other high school signee of the bunch. Reserving Quintana, who was never drafted, the other five went to college. Kluber and Arrieta weren’t drafted in the first round, even out of college.
The verdict? Based on our very rapid, non-scientific study, the best way to find an ace is to draft primarily from college by a narrow margin (5 to 4), and then just take good pitchers anywhere in the draft you can (two of the five weren’t first rounders).
By a curious probably-not-a-coincidence, that’s pretty much what the Cubs’ have been doing.
Triple A: Iowa Cubs
Iowa 2, Sacramento 1
Sign me up for the “Get Tseng To Chicago in September” campaign.
Double A: Tennessee Smokies
Biloxi 3, Tennessee 2 in eleven innings
The Smokies struck out sixteen times in this one.
High A: Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Potomac 9, Myrtle Beach 8
Little official wind on the box score, but this was definitely a day for offense anyway.
Low A: South Bend Cubs
South Bend 5, Dayton 2
A grand slam proved to be the difference.
Short Season A: Eugene Emeralds
Boise 6, Eugene 3
Other than the first, Albertos looked good in this one.
Rookie: AZL Cubs
D-backs 6, Cubs 4
The Cubs outhit the D-backs 12 to 8.
Other Notes