The 79-Win Cubs? OK, Sure, Whateves, and Other Bullets

Feb 19, 2019

The Wife is more of a headline scanner than a regular reader around here, but she does occasionally peruse the Bullets so she can see what I put in this spot. And if she is today, I just want to say: you are awesome, dear. We’ve been together, what, 17 years or so at this point? Ups and downs and challenges and all that, but I think we’re doing pretty darn well. I know I’m lucky to have you in my life. Much love, G.

In retaliation for the Cubs using their projection as a motivating tool, PECOTA has now downgraded the Cubs to just 79 wins this year. That’s a joke, of course – well, the retaliation part, not the 79 wins part. With the Brewers retaining Mike Moustakas and the Reds adding Derek Dietrich, there was just enough movement to knock the Cubs back another win. That would leave them the fourth worst team in the entire National League, and middle-of-the-pack in the bizarro American League. On the bright side, the Cubs might be able to get a top ten draft pick!

In all seriousness, although I dig the cold analysis of projection systems, I think it’s pretty clear that something is off in this one. The Cubs get absolutely hammered for pitch-framing, and then their pitching collectively is brutalized:

Just perusing the PECOTA-projected ERAs for the Cubs' starting pitchers.

Welp, looks like it's time to swap Jon Lester out of the rotation in favor of Jen-Ho Tseng … pic.twitter.com/lNxTZKYy2d

— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 19, 2019

My favorite PECOTA fact. In the depth chart-based projections, the Cubs 2 relievers with the lowest ERA in 2019?

Kyle Ryan, 3.82 in 10 IP
Dillon Maples, 3.92 in 21 IP

— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) February 19, 2019

I can certainly understand a projection system seeing the ages of the starters, the injuries all around, and the dips in performance, and you mash it all up, and it’s big trouble. The data inputs are the data inputs. But I would say that some of the declines projected are pretty significant, and the bullpen projections necessarily suffer from having to guess who is going to be in the bullpen for most of the innings. The Cubs will have the benefit of actively evaluating from their massive reserve of fingers-crossed relievers, picking and choosing the guys they want to proceed with for given stretches of time. That is likely to produce, as it has the last several years, results that outpace what a projection system can peg.

As for the rotation projections, it’s hard to look at the ERAs, at least, and say they look totally out of whack (save, perhaps, for Kyle Hendricks). Would any of those numbers – in isolation – really shock you in 2019?

Part of me is so tired of the (deservedly) negative story lines around the Cubs and around baseball right now that I’m absolutely DESPERATE for the games to start so that we can just talk about actual baseball. This hit. That pitch. This game. But then I remember that if the Cubs lose a few of their first five games, it’s gonna be an emotional nightmare all across the fandom. Is there a way we can brace against that now? I might start trying to meditate on it preemptively – losing winnable games absolutely sucks and matters in the final accounting, but even good teams lose lots of games, and some of them come early, so you’ve gotta roll with it, even if a disproportionate chunk of the early games turn into losses … ohmmmmmm ….

It is to be expected that many pitchers would have a beef with the pitch clock, but that’s not a reason not to do it:

My point is, I appreciate that players are resisting the pitch clock, and that experience shouldn't be discounted. But if the pitch clock is good for fans — and I personally think it is — that should probably outweigh what current players think.
— Jared Diamond (@jareddiamond) February 19, 2019

Amazon’s Fire tablets are all on a big sale right now, so if you want to get a cheap tablet, here you go.

Whoopsiedoodle:

Red Sox owner John Henry said the team "blew" negotiations to re-sign Jon Lester in 2014https://t.co/yKoDIDBJ41

— Cubs Talk (@NBCSCubs) February 18, 2019

Forever a Cub:

Pedro Strop has the most mound appearances in #Cubs history without making a start (361).

— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) February 18, 2019

Whatever you say, Mr. Tank:

David Bote laughed at the "jacked" comments and said he's actually only up a couple pounds this spring and did less chest work this offseason than in years past.
It's more about "postural therapy" and he's less rounded and more "free." He said it's also helped with his mobility

— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) February 18, 2019

What a shot:

Clear eyes, full moon. pic.twitter.com/xMhOIOITZd

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) February 19, 2019

Meanwhile, how things are looking at Wrigley:

More renovation views from our last flyover. pic.twitter.com/3I0AJW6LHb

— Wrigley Aerials (@WrigleyAerials) February 19, 2019

Mitch:

2019 Offseason Outlook: Mitch Trubisky and the Improvement That Comes from Within https://t.co/Ui1WfGRQSO pic.twitter.com/fp5EYjOeFX

— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) February 18, 2019

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

The 79-Win Cubs? OK, Sure, Whateves, and Other Bullets

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