The Receipts: Cubs Playoff Odds at the Start of the 2019 Season

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The Receipts: Cubs Playoff Odds at the Start of the 2019 Season

Chicago Cubs

Here on the eve of Opening Day, after a quiet and contentious offseason for the Cubs, where they sat mostly alongside as bystanders while the rest of the NL Central beefed up, it’s reasonable that the team on the North Side stands with no better playoff odds than some other teams in the Central. Would I bet on those other teams? I would not. But I can understand it, and it’s fair.

… but I still have a streak of petty in me. I am a fanatic after all.

So, then, as the regular season arrives, I wanted to put the final offseason playoff odds/projections into one place, held here for eternity – or at least until the playoffs arrive, and there is crowing to be done.

FanGraphs

As you can see, FanGraphs is the most sanguine on the Cubs’ chances, placing them solidly above the other big boys in the Central.

Las Vegas

BetOnline has the Cubs as about a 50/50 coin flip to make the postseason, but also has the Cardinals as the same. The Brewers are slightly behind at 3/2.

Another look from Vegas:

FiveThirtyEight

The nerds at FiveThirtyEight say the Cubs have a little better than a 1-in-3 shot to make the playoffs, which, whatever, but each of the Cardinals and Brewers are notably higher.

Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA

Ah, the now-infamous DOOM-laden PECOTA projections. They still hate the Cubs, but they are no longer solo in last place thanks presumably to the Scooter Gennett injury. At 17.6% to make the postseason, the Cubs are seen as a considerable underdog this year by BP. Just three teams – the Reds, Giants, and Marlins – have a lower chance.

Here’s hope we can look back in six months, pleased that I saved the receipts.

If not, it’ll be totally weird and accidental when our database eats this post.


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Author: Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.