Although his message was not being broadcast directly to the American public, so you have to keep his audience in mind, the Commissioner of Major League Baseball sure sounded optimistic about baseball’s return this year.
From Jeff Passan:
In a letter to baseball-ops employees yesterday, Rob Manfred said: "I fully anticipate baseball will return this season." Nearly two-thirds of teams will pay those employees through at least May — with some big-name and -market teams yet to decide. News: https://t.co/CyVSjeGBNg
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 21, 2020
Note that Manfred’s stated confidence came within the context of a letter to teams permitting them to reduce pay for team employees, and/or explore furloughs or layoffs. So, you could read that hopefully and say he was giving teams this authority, but cautioning them against deep cuts because he thinks baseball will be back this year. Or, you could read it pessimistically and say he was simply providing cover against a message that could be read as more or less telling teams to start making cuts.
I tend to think the former reading is more likely than the latter, though, as you can see that more than half of MLB’s teams already committed to paying through May 31. From a pure business standpoint, I really don’t think many teams do that right now if they though it was extremely likely the whole season would be cancelled as we sit here today. (I truly think people just don’t know for sure either way.)
Manfred’s optimism was guarded a bit, writing, “[I]t is very difficult to predict with any accuracy the timeline for resumption of our season.” As Passan rightly notes, there is still a looming negotiation between the players and the owners about how to make the economics of a fan-free season work. Moreover, so much of what can happen this year remains wholly depending on public health initiatives – testing, testing, testing, testing – that is entirely outside the league’s control.
That said, if the league and players can sort out the economics, and if the country continues on a trajectory where the phased openings of states can happen over the course of the summer, then yes, some version of a season is possible. It is interesting to me that the Commissioner’s baseline, even now, is still that baseball will happen this year, rather than it may happen this year. Forced optimism? Maybe. Inside knowledge about the status of various negotiations and public health planning? Possible.
In any case, check out Passan’s full report for more of the latest on how teams are proceeding.