NEWSLETTER
I’m glad we get at least one Game Five in the LDS round tonight, with the Rays and Yankees going at 6:10pm CT on TBS. It’s been one week since the Cubs were eliminated from the postseason, and I think I’m ready to watch other postseason games without mostly just being extremely annoyed and unhappy that the Cubs were so quickly bounced.
SPEAKING OF WHICH!
• This is something that should feel intuitive to Cubs fans by now:
The best predictor of postseason success comes down to one stat: a team's regular-season strikeout rate.
In all playoff series since 2000, the better team in that department has won 63% of the time.
The Astros had the lowest K% in baseball this year.https://t.co/uvSSLmU7vA
— Jared Diamond (@jareddiamond) October 8, 2020
• Yes, the Cubs had a higher strikeout rate than the Marlins this year, for what it’s worth. Moreover, if you were wondering, with a look back over this competitive window, where the Cubs stood on strikeout rate since 2015:
2015 Cubs: 24.5%, worst in MLB
2016 Cubs: 21.1%, 14th in MLB
2017 Cubs: 22.3%, 19th in MLB
2018 Cubs: 21.8%, 11th in MLB
2019 Cubs: 23.6%, 20th in MLB
2020 Cubs: 25.7%, 27th in MLB
• Interesting that the 2015 club was worst in MLB, but it was awfully young, and the offense exploded in the second half of the season to make up for the strikeouts. In fact, they had the 7th best offense in baseball in the second half that year, despite leading the league (in a bad way) in strikeout rate by a mile. Kinda makes you wonder if, because of the success that year, it got a bug in the institution’s ear that strikeouts really aren’t all that bad. Heck, the Cubs were middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate in 2016, but they had the third best offense in baseball. You just wonder if some of the players, and the organization as a whole, got a little stunted by having success despite the lofty strikeout numbers.
• I’d long been of the school of thought that a strikeout really wasn’t that much worse than any other kind of out (and, hey, saves you from a double-play!), but as the offensive environment in baseball has shifted over the last decade, it sure seems like not even giving yourself a chance to put the ball in play stings teams a lot more than any other kind of out. A strikeout has no chance at being a flukey hit or an error, and it has no chance of taking a juiced ball out of the park. These are old and obvious lessons, but I’m not so sure the Cubs (and, admittedly, a lot of us sabermetrically-inclined Cubs fans) have been on the right side of this one.
• In 2020, there were 16 teams that posted a wRC+ of 101 or better. Just 5 of those 16 were in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate. Of those other, bottom 14 offenses, all but two had a strikeout rate at 23.0% or higher.
• Truly, the Astros are the heroes of this postseason:
Dusty Baker noticed something about his players as the noise around them intensified.
“They closed the circle and got into each other. It made them closer.”
The Astros are back in the ALCS, whether you want them there or not. How they did it … https://t.co/pt9HHjJEb9
— Alden Gonzalez (@Alden_Gonzalez) October 9, 2020
• #SensualBaseball:
In explaining his belief this was just the beginning for the Padres, the unparalleled wisdom and wonder of Fernando Tatis Jr.:
"You know what the fun fact about this, in a certain way, we're still a virgin."— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) October 9, 2020
• I have expired:
The video of Eric Gregg’s horrible umpiring is all over Twitter, so let’s remember the good Eric Gregg times. Like when the Cardinals left a cheeseburger on third base for him in 1988. pic.twitter.com/tMqqYGQSUf
— Ben Porter (@Ben13Porter) October 9, 2020
• People are doing a thing, and sometimes it makes me happy but sometimes it makes me sad:
How it started: How it’s going: pic.twitter.com/4vya7XFtWd
— Kohl Franklin (@kohlrf) October 8, 2020
How it started… How it’s going.@TorresGleyber pic.twitter.com/2sVqCkJtrl
— South Bend Cubs (@SBCubs) October 8, 2020
• Weights, tea, clothes, toaster ovens, and more are your Deals of the Day at Amazon. #ad
• It was a fun night for the Bears:
Older Gentleman Battles Memory Fog at Key Moment https://t.co/Tfwt8uWg16 pic.twitter.com/GCHs6PkAws
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) October 9, 2020
It’s Khalil Mack’s World, We’re Just Living In It: BEARS 20, BUCCANEERS 19https://t.co/cNMkgilpki
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) October 9, 2020
