NEWSLETTER
Well, then. Here we are – torturing ourselves with a post about the Cubs trading for one of the best and most exciting players in Major League Baseball, Francisco Lindor, despite knowing how much is working against something like that actually happening this offseason. It borders on impossible, and the space between possible and impossible is as thin as a sheet of paper.
So where should we start with a post like this?
I should think first by acknowledging that this is not a post covering an explicit rumor connecting Lindor to the Cubs. Instead, the Cubs were mentioned as one of the *eleven* theoretical suitors for Lindor at MLB Trade Rumors thanks to some reasonable and informed speculation. It’s not an absurd connection when you extend out to 11 teams, but I know how badly we’ve all been hurt these last two offseasons, and I can’t bring myself to hold the football yet again.
But, hey, this is half the fun of the offseason. So, let’s work through the history, perform our due diligence, and see where that leaves us.
Francisco Lindor is *Very* Available
If you remember back to last offseason, you’ll recall a trio of superstars with short-term control squarely on the trade block throughout the winter – Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, and Mookie Betts. All three were available for financial reasons (either the luxury tax or pure austerity), but only one was eventually moved (and he’s having a pretty good postseason for the Dodgers right now).
Lindor’s availability, however, was arguably the easiest to understand.
The Indians are not a big market team, but Francisco Lindor was approaching free agency and rightfully set to land a big market deal. Even before the pandemic decimated revenues across the league, there was just no way the Indians were going to pony up what it would have taken to extend Lindor, particularly not after Betts, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg completely reset expectations for a superstar contract.
As Lindor approaches his final year of team control, he’s set to get another raise via arbitration to something in the $17.5M-$21.5M range, which is beneath his true value, but still a hefty chunk of change. If the Indians were looking to avoid paying that salary last year, pre-pandemic, they certainly are now for 2021. And if they didn’t think they could extend him last year, they absolutely won’t be able to now.
So Cleveland’s are options are pretty clear:
1. Trade Lindor in the offseason, when his value is still quite high and every team can theoretically participate in the bidding (we know not every team has a need, or even the ability to pay Lindor for 2020).
2. Trade Lindor at the deadline, when he’ll have half as much team control and a smaller (but possibly more urgent) market, all while risking injury or underperformance and after you’ve already paid more than half of his 2020 salary.
3. Keep Lindor until his contract expires, during which the Indians can try to win in a division with the upswinging White Sox and still impressive Twins, while letting Lindor walk at the end of the year for meager draft compensation.
Yeah. Francisco Linder *very* available.
Francisco Lindor is *Very* Attractive
I can’t ignore everything that he does outside the lines or in-between plays, because you should already know that Francisco Lindor is one of the most likable players in Major League Baseball.
In fact, I have often and loudly said he’s my favorite non-Cubs player.
It's hard not to love this guy (future Cub, right?). https://t.co/PeEFHcdFMu
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) September 16, 2020
Past Cub: Starlin Castro
Non- Cub: Jose Altuve/Frankie Lindor— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) December 13, 2017
Francisco Lindor. https://t.co/2tzEJZZrzq
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) June 9, 2020
Man … if Francisco Lindor is available this winter, #Cubs should do whatever they can to make that happen. He's one of like 5(?) guys I'd blow up the system for (again). @BleacherNation
But even if it doesn't happen, a Lindor trade will impact #Cubs. https://t.co/rTprrV2UYa
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) October 30, 2019
I'm not gonna lie … Joey Votto is on my short list of all-time favorite non-Cubs players.
Also on the list: Francisco Lindor, Ken Griffey Jr., and Adrian Beltre. https://t.co/dzcIL3J9WN
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) September 21, 2020
You know it's Frankie Lindor. https://t.co/MAGz7EDCdM
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) August 22, 2017
Lindor is pretty much my favorite non-Cubs player. He an Adrian Beltre take the cake.
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) April 19, 2017
(I made the Altuve comment before I knew about the cheating scandal … give me a break.)
In terms of his performance, Lindor is somehow still just 26 (he’s turning 27 next month) and one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB. Offensively, he’s not quite tip-top tier, maxing out at 130 wRC+ in 2018, but he’s never been a below average hitter, he doesn’t strike out, he will probably hit more than 30 homers a year in a regular season, he takes his walks, he can steal 15-20 bases, etc. He’s awesome. I don’t even really know where else to go with this, so I’ll just show you a WAR leaderboard since his debut in 2015, which should clear things up.
MLB fWAR Leaderboard 2015-2020:
1. Mike Trout: 46.8
2. Mookie Betts: 38.4
3. Francisco Lindor: 28.9
4. Josh Donaldson: 28.5
5. Christian Yelich: 28.5
6. Kris Bryant: 28.3
7. Anthony Rendon: 27.9
8. Nolan Arenado: 27.8
9. Paul Goldschmidt: 27.7
10. Jose Altuve: 27.4
Recognize any of those guys?
Yeah. Francisco Lindor is *very* attractive.
Francisco Lindor Does Fit on the Cubs
Regardless of what you think about Nico Hoerner or the Cubs ability to extend Javier Báez or Kris Bryant beyond 2021, the Cubs have a place for Francisco Lindor on their roster. Sure, almost every team in baseball should be able to find a place for someone like Lindor, but I’m saying more than that: the Cubs need infielders and they need good players, because their best infielders and their best players are on expiring contracts. Meanwhile, Hoerner is still an unknown quantity who will likely need some additional time at Triple-A before taking over a middle infield job (if he does become that guy).
The Cubs could also use a completely different type of hitter in their lineup, and Lindor happens to be exactly that. With a career 14.1% strikeout rate and 125 wRC+ against left-handed pitching he certainly fills in a lot of holes for Cubs offense showed this past season.
But to get more specific, even on a one-year deal, he might make sense.
As we know, 2021 could be a “last dance” of sorts for the Chicago Cubs. From Theo Epstein, to Kyle Schwarber, to Kris Bryant, to Javy Báez, to Anthony Rizzo, things are going to change after this season whether the Cubs want them to or not. So when a superstar caliber player becomes available and could possibly put your team over the top for that last moonshot season, you do have to seriously consider it. And that’s the crux of the argument for including the Cubs at MLB Trade Rumors.
No matter which way you slice it, Francisco Lindor fits on the Cubs.
Big, Red, Flashing However …
Let’s come back to reality here for a minute.
The Cubs are facing as many financial challenges as any team in baseball (perhaps more than some given the timing of the Marquee Network launch, the Wrigley Field renovations, and the disproportionate reliance on game-day revenues), which is not to say they couldn’t afford Lindor, but is to say they are not angling to extend on payroll right now. We know that.
In fact, we largely expect the Cubs to trade AWAY at least one of their core members on similarly expiring deals this offseason, much like the Indians with Lindor. And if they do trade away one of those players the whole “last dance” argument kinda flies out the window, depending on the return.
Now, the Cubs could look to do what the Dodgers did and extend Lindor right away – or even use 2020 to show him what’s great about Chicago/the Cubs before hoping to sign him when he reaches free agency next winter – but, again … do we really expect that sort of money to be dished out right now? I’m sorry, but I do not.
Moreover, do you expect the Cubs to send away what little prospect capital they have right now for one year of Lindor? Again, I do not.
At the end of the day, there are going to be only so many teams even capable of paying Lindor what he’s going to make after next season and the Cubs *should be* one of those players. But I don’t know if we should really expect them to trade away top prospects right now to pay him $20 million in 2021 before extending him to a monster deal thereafter.
I want Francisco Lindor on the Cubs more than anybody, believe me. But I just don’t know how much I really expect it to happen in 2021. I think our best bet may be to wait until after 2021, hope that things have totally turned around financially, and then the Cubs take a shot at Lindor as a free agent. And in the meantime, we just have to really hope whoever does trade for Lindor doesn’t immediately lock him up like the Dodgers did Betts.
But then again … wouldn’t you?
