NEWSLETTER
I’m pretty sure my dog set a record for most circles before finally doing his business today. I was not amused … look outside …
Carlos Martinez: Back to the Rotation Again?
I’ve been paying some extra attention to the Cardinals rotation issues this spring, because injuries to Miles Mikolas (shoulder) and Kwang Hyun Kim (back), as well as their commitment to a 39-year-old Adam Wainwright (old), has made things a little less certain in the NL Central than I’m sure they were hoping (and that’s before noting that Dakota Hudson is out after Tommy John surgery). All that stuff, plus a strong spring so far, has propelled Carlos Martinez back into the Cardinals rotation after injuries and ineffectiveness really derailed what was a generally normal and largely impressive starting career. It had been expected that Martinez’s starting days were over, especially given how good he’s shown he can be in relief. But the need and his performance have really changed that expectation.
And it comes at a really interesting time.
Martinez, 29, is entering the final guaranteed year of a five-year deal with the Cardinals, who hold two one year options for $17M (2022) and $18M (2023). Thus, his immediate future is going to hinge very directly on how well this return to the rotation plays out. And that doesn’t seem to be lost on him. In his last spring outing, Martinez was gassing it up to a max of 98 MPH, routinely sitting in the 95 MPH range, after sitting 92-93 MPH in 2020. COVID likely played a role in his velocity drop last season, there’s no doubt about it, but for him to be hurling this hard this early as a starter is eye-popping. And although the Cubs have pretty much always hit Martinez well enough (.257/.337/.392; 4.69 ERA over 36 games and 111.1 IP), we know how impactful he can be when he’s right.
Pushing Through the Rules Changes
Now that those fairly significant – but, in my opinion, progressive and necessary – rules changes have been established in the Minor Leagues, you can expect some Major League fallout in the near future. But how will that actually happen? Well, there are a few paths here, as detailed by Evan Drellich at The Athletic, each with relatively enormous consequences.
In an ideal world, some or all of the rule changes could be well received by all parties (players, front offices, the league, the union, etc.), with an agreed upon implementation plan for Major League Baseball in the new CBA. Nothing is ever this easy or well-received, though, so I wouldn’t really count on it.
In a less than ideal world, one in which we’ve traveled down before, Commissioner Rob Manfred can unilaterally implement any rule change after proposing it to the union a year earlier. This is a power Manfred/MLB has routinely reminded the world exists, while totally definitely not wanting to use it in the past. (The problem here is that power can actually go away in the next CBA, but for now, it exists.)
An even worst outcome, arguably, would be a disagreement where the league wants the rule changes, the players don’t, so no changes happen while the fight derails the CBA negotiations. This outcome would mean (1) no necessary improvements to the game, (2) more in-fighting at the singularly most inopportune time, and (3) a “blame game” in the media that can once again force fans to decide who they support: the players who make the game enjoyable right now or the league who wants to keep the game enjoyable in the future.
I’m not looking forward to it. The takeaway here, however, is that at a certain point Manfred is permitted to just implement these rules without any player input. For now.
Is It Time to Move the Mound Back?
In an even more dramatic potential change, this old argument is resurfacing: Should MLB move the mound back for the first time in over 100 years?
Is it time to move the pitching mound back? @benlindbergh explores why a subtle change could make a huge difference in MLB: https://t.co/f9fFFk14Ir
— The Ringer (@ringer) March 15, 2021
I don’t know if I have a great stance on this yet, but I do understand why those in favor of moving the mound back (while leaving the rest of the game largely untouched) think that’s a more holistic approach.
Anyway, this is MLB not addressing the real issue — pitchers are too close to batters — and instead trying to win the press conference.
Baseball’s problem isn’t where the shortstop is standing. Its problem is that the shortstop has nothing to do 40% of the time. Fix that.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) March 12, 2021
You can get data, comments, thoughts, examples, etc at The Ringer for more. You know the drill.
This Young, This Good, This Fast?
Fernando Tatis, Jr., Juan Soto, and Ronald Acuña, Jr. are not just three of the youngest players in MLB, they’re also three of the best and most exciting players the league has. And as it turns out that makes them pretty uniquely special when considered as a group:
I wrote about whether we've ever seen a trio quite like Soto/Acuña/Tatis before (not never, but barely ever) and whether it's too soon to hype them to the moon and back (it is not too soon, they are great)https://t.co/zAG4kLcFCU
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 15, 2021
I still think this argument is coming too soon – and using 2020 is a little unfair – but that’s all kind of besides the point. As it turns out, there are a number of ways to identify this particular trio as one that is uniquely good for how young they are, and they’re all pretty impressive.
For just one example, the last time there were three qualified batters 22-years-old or younger who finished a season 50% better than the league average hitter (by OPS+) the Chicago Cubs were the defending World Series champions … and it wasn’t 2017. So it’d been a very, very long time before Tatis, Soto, and Acuña did it last year.
There was a similar group back in 2012-2013 (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado), and there are some other trios throughout history who come close to staking up, but it’s all to say that this *is* a very special trio.
It’s a fun read, with plenty of stuff to argue about. You’re gonna love it.
In-Game Video Returns with a Twist:
As expected, in-game video that will allow batters to review current game at-bats mid-game will return to clubhouses in 2021. The practice had been banned in 2020 for COVID-19 reasons, but I suspect also because of the role it played in the Astros and Red Sox sign stealing scandals over the years.
This year, however, the video will be curated by the league, not individual teams, and will begin after the catcher puts down the sign, so that batters can’t steal signals digitally/remotely/etc.:
Players will be able to review at-bats from multiple angles – including the front (center field) angle that, in the past, could have been used to identify catcher signals. But MLB will clip the videos to start after the sign is given so players can review, for instance, their swings or the shape of the pitch but without what finger or sequence of fingers catchers are using to call for specific pitches.
“We’re not going to blur the signals out,” Sword said. “There’s a little window of time there after the sign is given where you still get the full pitch but you don’t actually see the sign.”
Javier Báez is one of the big proponents of in-game video, and did identify the lack of video last year as a contributor to his troubled 2020 season. Christian Yelich echoed those remarks, and J.D. Martinez agrees (via the Boston Globe):
“I’ve said a million times, part of [a] routine, and it’s something that kind of just got taken away from me,” Martinez said last month. “I’m excited that this year we’re going to have it back in a sense, some kind of video where we can look at our swings. So I’m looking forward to getting back to somewhat normal baseball during these crazy times.”
Odds and Ends
• The 22-pitch battle between Luis Guillorme and Jordan Hicks underscores another issue, for what it’s worth:
I timed it. It was 11:30. Great batter-pitcher matchup, but 11:30 WITH NO RUNNERS ON BASE! & IT’S SPRING TRAINING!
You want fewer Ks, don’t allow Ps to fully recover after each & every pitch.Intra-pitch times
21
24
53
28
28
30
29
54
34
29
28
32
35
63
28
30
29
28
31
22
31 https://t.co/ahTFP4A0C0— Sean Forman (@sean_forman) March 15, 2021
• The Reds will be without Shogo Akiyama for a while, as he deals with a hamstring injury.
