NEWSLETTER
Today, the Chicago Cubs made a series of roster moves and decisions, including one that finalized the Opening Day rotation: as long known, the front three would be Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Davies; as long suspected, the fourth starter would be Trevor Williams; and as newly revealed, Adbert Alzolay is to be the fifth starter.
On the Alzolay decision, it’s hard to argue with it, given how he looked late last year after properly shaping his slider at the alt site, and how he looked earlier this week when he got that pitch right. When he can do that, he’s such a different option for this Cubs rotation. I’m happy he’s getting a chance right out of the gate.
But that said, the choice of Alzolay for the fifth starter job right out of the gate necessarily brings with it a number of questions, chief among them: what now with Alec Mills?
Mills never had that fifth starter job on total lockdown, but I think most folks – me included – would’ve guessed he’d get the gig, especially after the news that Alzolay still had a minor league option left. Instead, Mills, who has no options left, will head to the bullpen as a swing guy:
Ross: Alec Mills will be in the bullpen to start the season.
Also of note: P.J. Higgins has not yet been informed that he has made the OD roster.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) March 27, 2021
Given the oddity of the season’s innings bump, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see Mills accumulate a whole lot of innings early, even if he’s a “reliever.” I still would like to see what his adjustments look like as a starter – he flashes the goods, but he has been hit hard by lefties – but, again, it’s hard to argue with Alzolay getting his shot. And, hey, Mills is a pretty great swing-guy/long-reliever to have in the bullpen.
Speaking of which, that was a role that was expected to go to Shelby Miller as the season opened. Instead, Miller, who starts tonight, got cut and will have to re-appear at some point later:
Ross makes it official: "Adbert's on the team."
His role is yet to be determined. Said he thinks Shelby Miller will impact the Cubs at some point this season.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) March 27, 2021
I wonder if there is a specific plan in place for Miller, actually. The Athletic has reported he has an opt-out at some point in April, and it’s highly unlikely the Cubs are going to want to lose him for nothing, given how good he’s looked this spring. Maybe there’s already a specific schedule in mind that would have Miller coming up at Time X to replace Pitcher Y?
To that end, here’s a huge unanswered question left by the Alzolay announcement: how will the Cubs manage his innings? Alzolay had so few competitive innings last year and, because of injuries and youth, had barely 80 innings in 2019, and under 40 innings in 2018. The most he’s ever thrown in a pro season is 120.1 innings all the way back in 2016 at A-ball. He cannot be expected to throw 150+ innings this year, which means if he stays explicitly healthy, the Cubs will have to get really creative with short outings, brief options, piggybacks and what-have-you.
And that’s really going to be the story of this season anyway, as far as the rotation goes. Not only do you have to manage Alzolay’s innings, but you have to figure it out with respect to the front four, too. So eventually, Miller’s going to get some innings. It’s just gotta happen. And eventually, Mills is gonna get some starts. It’s just gotta happen.
For today, though, the Cubs’ rotation is set: Hendricks, Arrieta, Davies, Williams, and Alzolay. A lot to like there, actually. Just sayin’.
