NEWSLETTER
For my part – except when I am FORCED TO DISCUSS OTHERWISE – I am still very much in “Kris Bryant is on the Cubs right now, a team that is competing for a division, and I would like to see him and them do very well on the field on into October” mode. If the time comes when we have to start obsessively tracking rumors because a trade in July becomes very possible, I’ll certainly manage that transition.
But for a little while longer, I’m still gonna swat trade speculation things away as they cross my field of vision, especially as the Cubs are currently playing quite well. I will still note and comment upon interesting things as I see them, though. So, if you would like to read preemptive chatter about the possibility that the Cubs could shop Bryant come July, there are a couple new articles from the last 30 hours at ESPN and The Athletic.
Like I said, I’m not here yet, personally, but these aren’t bad reads (heck, much of the articles are simply about how good Kris Bryant has been):
Jesse Rogers: Why Kris Bryant could be the MVP of this summer's MLB trade deadlinehttps://t.co/NitkLmXzIY
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 23, 2021
Kris Bryant is back. Bring on the intrigue. Column: https://t.co/Xme5GeH3QF
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 24, 2021
In sum, Kris Bryant is a wildly valuable player in his walk year, he likely will not be signed to an extension, and he plays for a team that might make sell trades in July. That’s more or less the gist of the situation as we know it right now, with his dramatic bounce back this year – and extreme multi-positional defensive efforts – really being all that we learned since this offseason. And even that stuff isn’t new, since Bryant was always versatile and was always productive when healthy.
That said, I do want to point out two interesting sections, one from each article, that add a little layer of consideration to whatever is going to happen with Bryant when the time comes for something to happen. From ESPN:
There is one other way Bryant’s saga with the Cubs could end — by not ending at all. Though the team and Boras haven’t come close to a long-term deal, the turn at the top from Theo Epstein to Hoyer could lead to a new line of dialogue. Bryant made a point of mentioning the open line of communication with the Cubs’ new boss in spring training.
With only a few months until 29 other teams can bid for him, would Bryant forgo all that at this late date? Doubtful. But that won’t stop Hoyer from engaging with Boras before July 31. He has to, at least to know what he has moving forward.
It’s more or less impossible to imagine an extension happening with Bryant during this season. A signing in free agency, after this season? Yes, I’ll let myself dream on that possibility.
Of course, even that will wind up impacted by what the Cubs do in July, and The Athletic piece speculates that if Bryant were dealt, it could be one of the bigger positional rental trades in the last several years – bigger even than Manny Machado:
Bryant, because he has started at five positions this season – both infield corners, all three outfield spots – could draw a more expansive trade market than, say, Trevor Story, another potential free agent who plays only shortstop for the Rockies. And the return Bryant brings in a trade would not necessarily be as meager as the five-player hodgepodge the Orioles received from the Dodgers in 2018 for Manny Machado. At the time, Machado, too, was a rental, and he seemingly restricted the Orioles’ options by saying he wanted to remain at shortstop, though he also ended up playing third base for the Dodgers.
That Machado trade is going to be used as a comp for anything with Bryant this summer, so get used to hearing it now. Ultimately, the Orioles got four legitimate prospects in the deal – a whole lot of quantity for a rental trade! – but no impact prospects, and not really even any top 100 types at the time. It wasn’t a bad return, but it also wasn’t a return that you look back on and say, “Boy, good thing the Orioles traded Machado!” So, yes, you’d like to hope the Cubs could “beat” that trade – or at least the on-paper perception of it – if they were going to move Bryant in what figures to be a much more competitive year than the Orioles at that time. I mean, those Orioles went on to win 47 games, and were absolutely, unequivocally not going to re-sign Machado after the season. So, again, the Bryant situation is not quite the same, in terms of the impetus to make a move.
So basically, I’m saying this – Bryant netting more than Machado – is an interesting point to keep in mind going forward. That’s all.
But also keep in mind that none of these things are playing out independent of each other. That is to say, if the Cubs suddenly take a turn toward terrible, then the impetus to trade Kris Bryant becomes stronger, even if the return drops. But if the Cubs are playing well, that’s probably owing in large part to Bryant, himself, which makes it less likely they’d want to trade him anyway. Still, if the Cubs aren’t looking like they can make a deep postseason run, and if re-signing Bryant in free agency is nothing more than a nice thought, then it suddenly becomes a much harder decision in July.
Bryant is currently hitting an absurd .312/.406/.604, with a 172 wRC+, good baserunning value, and playing multiple games at all of third base, first base, left field, center field, and right field. His 2.3 WAR trails only Max Muncy in the NL right now.
