NEWSLETTER
We’ll have more on Nico Hoerner when the information becomes available. It’s probably weird to say that up at the top – “Hey, about that one topic, I am not actually discussing it yet” – but it felt even more weird not to acknowledge it first thing this morning. With a hamstring strain, the range of possible absence lengths is so wide that we just aren’t going to know much until there are scans, tests, rest, etc. Your dream scenario is about a month, but given how much pain Hoerner appeared to be in, your much more realistic best-case-scenario is probably something like two months. And there are much worse possibilities. Just have to cross our fingers.
Instead, this post is mostly about setting up the roster-related implications of Hoerner’s absence. Because it’s a mess.
Iowa Cubs infielder Sergio Alcantara, who is not on the 40-man roster, was pulled – reportedly without injury – from their game last night shortly after Hoerner went down. It wasn’t hard to connect those dots, and I tentatively expect we’ll see Alcantara added to the roster tonight. So let’s start this conversation there. (UPDATE: After a change of mind, it’s actually going to be Rafael Ortega – see the full update below – but the conversation is mostly the same.)
Just 24, Alcantara is right now the same age as Hoerner, and the Cubs claimed him off of waivers from the Tigers back in February (later slipping him through waivers – as a guy without minor league options left, he was going to be tough for any team to actually have him make the Opening Day roster). As recently as 2019, his last real season, Alcantara was viewed as a legit prospect in a robust Tigers system, ranking 16th to FanGraphs at the time. He was viewed as a glove-first shortstop prospect, with a bat that was always close to league average, but it was one of those high-contact, no-power types that doesn’t always translate at the upper levels (much less MLB). That said, he came out of the gate at Iowa this year looking like an entirely different hitter – much more power, so many more walks, and immediately became the most reliable fixture in the Triple-A lineup (a level where he had yet to play, despite a cup of coffee with the Tigers in the pandemic 2020 season).
That is all to say, in another world, you’d be really excited for the Cubs to get a look at Alcantara right now anyway. Just, you know, not like this. We’ll have more on Alcantara if he actually does wind up getting the call tonight.
In the meantime, there are significant roster considerations here if Hoerner hits the Injured List, as expected, joining other positional guys Matt Duffy, Jason Heyward, and Jake Marisnick. Since the 40-man is full and the Cubs don’t have any realistically available positional 40-man’ers to call up, replacing Hoerner with someone like Alcantara is going to require a 40-man move, which means someone is going to get DFA’d, or someone is getting moved to the 60-day IL (which temporarily takes them off the 40-man). The Cubs have already used up their “obvious” 40-man moves, including DFA’ing Jason Adam just last night to make room for Patrick Wisdom.
The combination of no upper-minors prospect depth and the rash of injuries has just been brutal for the 40-man. I don’t really want to see the Cubs lose anyone else! And since the positional guys are basically all already in use, you’re talking about DFA’ing a pitcher, and I like basically everyone on the 40-man! Arg! I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cubs were trying to work out a trade so as not to lose a guy for nothing. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they were scrambling to decide whether Trevor Megill’s forearm or Shelby Miller’s back or Jake Marisnick’s hamstring justifies a move to the 60-day IL.
Even after that gets figured out, Alcantara, specifically, would come with some roster issues. For one thing, Alcantara doesn’t have any options left, so if and when the Cubs wanted to move him back out, he’d have to clear waivers, and I suspect he would not. For another thing, even if he did clear waivers, he has already been outrighted by the Cubs earlier this year – which means, if they seek to outright him to Iowa again, he can instead choose free agency. If the Cubs had just bounced him because a parade of positional guys are returning from injury, then he might not see sticking with the Cubs as his best path to future playing time and might depart.
So the decision to add Alcantara now, if the Cubs do it, could suggest a variety of possible things: (1) the Cubs love Alcantara so much already that they know he’ll stick on the roster even in a reserve role after everyone gets healthy; or (2) the Cubs already believe Hoerner is going to be out for a very long time and consider Alcantara a one-to-one replacement whose spot on the roster will be unaffected by other players (Duffy, Heyward, Marisnick) returning from injury; OR (3) the Cubs actually aren’t huge on Alcantara, just want a fill-in, and are willing to risk losing him in a DFA/waiver/free agency move when the time comes.
If the Cubs were simply looking for a warm body for a very short fill-in, and desperately didn’t want to have to make another 40-man move, they *could* call up Christopher Morel, who is definitely not “ready” – he’s currently at Double-A in his first action above Low-A – but is already on the 40-man. I don’t see that happening, which also makes you wonder about how long these guys are going to be out.
Once everything gets squared away on the roster, then you’ve got playing time to sort out. With everyone injured, you basically have to have Kris Bryant in the outfield and David Bote at third base. That would leave second base open for Alcantara if the Cubs want to really give him a look (that’d definitely be my vote, because why not use this opportunity to find out what he can do?). It’s also possible the Cubs just give those starts to Eric Sogard instead. Then, once any of the three other positional injuries is ready to return, you might see third base re-occupied by Duffy or Bryant, which would make second base even more crowded.
As I said, we’ll have more on Hoerner when the specifics/updates come out, and we’ll have more on Alcantara if he actually does get the call. In the meantime, I just wanted to tee this stuff up for your consideration today.
UPDATE: Apropos of this conversation, it sounds like the Cubs overnight made a different decision on who is coming up:
Sergio Alcantara was removed from last night's game but I'm being told Rafael Ortega is actually the one being summoned by Chicago. Not sure if it's a taxi squad move or to fill the void for Nico Hoerner. But Ortega is now the guy.
— Tommy Birch (@TommyBirch) May 26, 2021
Ortega, 30, is also hitting very well at Iowa, and is also a guy who you might have otherwise wanted to see get some big league time (he’s on the older side, but he’s always hit at Triple-A, and his career trajectory – plus the pandemic – kinda explain why he hasn’t seen more than 143 big league games so far in his career.
With Ortega, you have another guy who isn’t on the 40-man and who is without minor league options left, so all the above on that front still apply. The one possible difference from Alcantara, though, is that you might be more comfortable losing Ortega on waivers if it came to that, and/or you might have a chance to outright him to Iowa if he clears waivers. As I said above, those are not really realistic outcomes with Alcantara. So perhaps the Cubs are just betting that if they went with Alcantara now, they’re more likely to lose him later. So they go with Ortega now, and take their chances on losing him later (while continuing to develop Alcantara, who is six years younger than Ortega and has almost no experience above Double-A).
If the Cubs want to give Ortega starts, they could just slide Kris Bryant back to third base (he’s familiar with the position, I think), and then have David Bote start regularly at second base for now.
UPDATE 2: Another wrinkle, which really helps explain the possible change-of-mind from Alcantara to Ortega, since the Cubs might want to bring up Strange-Gordon soon anyway:
Cubs Reportedly Signing Utility Man Dee Strange-Gordon to a Minor League Deal – https://t.co/oC0gPjW0JB pic.twitter.com/zyyPSZxBxc
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) May 26, 2021
