NEWSLETTER
The Philadelphia Phillies, under Dave Dombrowki, are almost certain to make a serious run at the Trade Deadline. They have a pricey core of quality players, even if only playing to a .500 record at the moment, and they are alone in second place in the NL East, just 4.0 games behind the Mets. A couple key additions and they could make a run. That’s what they’ll tell themselves, in any case.
To that end, no surprise that the Cubs bullpen is a target of interest for a club with one of the worst bullpen groups:
Phillies are indeed on Craig Kimbrel who could transform their beleaguered bullpen. Lots to talk about with Cubs as they like Andrew Chafin (no runs allowed since May 7) and Ryan Tepera as well.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 24, 2021
Always nice to have lots of interest, at a minimum.
The rub with the Phillies, particularly as it relates to a top-tier trade piece like Craig Kimbrel, is the trade fit. It is just really hard to make it work, as we discussed recently:
Meanwhile, although virtually every contender should be in on Kimbrel, there’s one team that has suddenly picked up a ton of buzz over the past few days: the Philadelphia Phillies. The combination of their run toward the Mets and the deep and obvious needs in their bullpen have led to increasing speculation about the Phillies, under Dave Dombrowski, as a prime Kimbrel suitor. Even an anonymous GM out there is saying Kimbrel might wind up on the Phillies.
… but could the Phillies actually land Kimbrel? We know that the Cubs can get a “ton” for Kimbrel in trade, and we also know that Dombrowski does not want to trade either of his top two prospects, righty Mick Abel and shortstop Bryson Stott, the only two who are in range of top 100 type consideration. NBC Philly wonders if former top prospects Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard – remember them! – could instead be on the table, but I’d wonder right back if that’s the direction the Cubs would want to go. Each of Howard and Bohm now have some big league exposure, and each has some very ugly performances to show for it. We know that development sometimes happens like that, and these were two very, very well-regarded prospects. Maybe the Cubs want to take a chance on getting them over the hump as part of a nearer-term competition timeline? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I also wouldn’t necessarily bet on it.
From there, the Phillies have a bottom tier farm system, where, sure, you’re gonna be able to pluck some interesting prospects, but not the level you’d expect to be getting in a Kimbrel deal. In other words, the Cubs would have to really like Bohm and/or Howard for the Phillies to have a realistic shot in a Kimbrel trade, given how widespread the interest is going to be.
Do the Phillies have the pieces to land Chafin or Tepera? Well, of course. There are always interesting prospects in that tier in every farm system. But for Kimbrel, the Cubs need to maximize the return on one of the most valuable pieces on the entire trade market. If Abel and Stott are totally off the table, then it’s really hard to make a deal work that couldn’t/shouldn’t easily be topped by another club.
To that end, you wonder if this is at least partially tied to the Cubs trying to further suss out the market on Kimbrel (maybe push the Mets a little bit? and maybe the Phillies are happy to help?). Both the Phillies and the Mets reportedly have scouts at Wrigley Field this weekend.
