NEWSLETTER
The arrival of two prospects last night in very loud fashion – Christopher Morel and Brandon Hughes – has prospects on the brain for everyone.
So, more Cubs prospect notes …
⇒ The promotions keep on coming, with Matt Mervis getting bumped to Double-A Tennessee after simply destroying High-A. The first base prospect will have to coordinate starts, primarily, with Bryce Ball, who is perhaps even more of a 1B/DH-only guy than Mervis. Of course, Ball is also really trying to make his case that his current level is no longer challenging enough:
The last 20 games for Bryce Ball: pic.twitter.com/5Z27OuBjG0
— Brad (@ballskwok) May 18, 2022
⇒ Getting Ball regular at bats at Iowa would be pretty tough right now, though, given the need to do that for Jared Young and Nelson Maldonado up there. And if Frank Schwindel were sent down to get more work? It’s a very crowded group right now of AA/AAA/MLB bat-mostly types. Good problem to have, obviously, but this is a reminder of why positional versatility is so valuable. As for Mervis, a 2020 undrafted free agent signing (that was the five-round draft, and he was pretty clearly a priority signing, so he would’ve been drafted soon after that), I can’t wait to see how he takes to Tennessee. The ballpark is a little more friendly to his power, but obviously the pitching is a big step up from High-A. I don’t necessarily expect him to keep raking this year, and instead you kinda just want to see him set himself up to be on the Triple-A Iowa radar in 2023.
⇒ Speaking of guys who’ve been particularly ridiculous the last few weeks, Kevin Alcántara just keeps mashing:
Kevin Alcantara HAMMERS one to right and the Pelicans are on the board! Fourth home run of the season for Alcantara.
Fireflies 2, Pelicans 1 in the bottom of the second. pic.twitter.com/Fz9UqCkQHM
— Myrtle Beach Pelicans (@Pelicanbaseball) May 17, 2022
⇒ That was part of another 15-run outburst by the Pelicans, who have a lot of guys (Alcántara included) who are pushing for High-A South Bend consideration given that we’re clearly in Promotion Season. (Alcántara is sitting today, by the way, after being pulled late in that game. Hopefully it’s just normal rest, rather than any kind of physical issue. (Or, hey, if he’s being promoted to South Bend, that’d be fine with me!))
⇒ Reggie Preciado had three hits in that game, and his May slash line is up to .342/.381/.474 (138 wRC+). The peripherals don’t jump out at you, but he’s clearly hitting the ball hard. And having only just turned 19 two days ago, he remains extremely young for full-season Low-A.
⇒ Bryan with some love for Alcántara and Preciado, among others, plus a heads up on lefty relief prospect Bailey Horn:
Feels appropriate after that Hughes debut for me to say, dang, now pay attention to Bailey Horn.
Slider quality is up this year, slider usage up this year, and looks stronger, too.
Four rock-solid outings to start his season, a move to Double-A will likely be soon.
— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) May 18, 2022
⇒ Horn, you may remember, was the trade return in the Ryan Tepera trade last year, and was clearly a pure scouting play by the Cubs, who must’ve really liked him coming out of the 2020 draft (White Sox took him in the 5th round). Already 24 and having moved into a relief role at High-A, you would kinda need to see absurd results right now to keep him on your radar, and he is accommodating, having struck out nearly half the batters he’s faced. His walk rate is also approaching 20%, so clearly he’s got some crazy stuff and significant wildness. Then again, the walks came down in his last couple outings, the most recent of which was 3.0 innings. Being stretched back out?
⇒ (Also, a stray note on the walk rate: With batters at High-A unable to even put the ball in play on Horn, you probably see a lot of deep counts and walks by virtue of all the whiffs in the zone earlier in the count. That isn’t to say the control isn’t a concern – obviously it is – but I’m just saying we’ve seen this before, where a big walk rate for a guy with a big strikeout rate in the lower levels does not always automatically mean the walk rate will get worse up the ladder. Sometimes it just kinda stays at an elevated level, and then you hope the pitcher improves his control as he develops, regardless of the caliber of bats he’s facing.)
It’s now been a month since the new pitch clock rules were instituted, and the data is, if anything, even clearer.https://t.co/VwiZAqHYmo
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 15, 2022
⇒ From the article, with my emphasis added:
With the new rules, MiLB games are significantly faster both in time of game and in pace of play. Since the new pitch clock rules were adopted on April 15, the average MiLB nine-inning game has taken 2:35 to play. In the two weeks of the season without pitch clock rules, nine-inning games were lasting 2:59 on average. In 2021, the average nine-inning MiLB game without these pitch clock rules took 3:00 to play. That’s a 13.4% reduction in the time of game.
In comparison, the average MLB nine-inning game is taking 3:05 to play this year.
This reduction in game time has not come about because of a dramatic change in the number of batters or baserunners. The average 2022 MiLB game sees 37.95 plate appearances per team, up from 37.78 plate appearances per team in 2021. Teams are averaging 4.93 runs per game this year compared to 5.04 runs last year with 7.9 hits this year vs. 8.1 last year. Last year, MiLB teams averaged 147.7 pitches per game. This year teams are averaging 148.4 pitches per game.
The amount of action happening in these games is roughly the same as it was last year, including virtually identical numbers of pitches per game. And the time allotted for between-inning changeovers and pitching changes has not been altered. But roughly 24 minutes per game have been cut by eliminating time between pitches and between at-bats.
⇒ In other words, the “actual baseball game content” is the same – it’s just coming without nearly as much dead time. I know some players will bristle, but this is the future for MLB. Same amount of action at a dramatically improved pace? Yes. Gotta do it. Players will have to adjust.
⇒ Cristian Hernández just has uncommon power at his age and size. This is a shot to right center, and he immediately knew it was gone:
Folks. Cristian Hernández is gonna be A PROBLEM. pic.twitter.com/3SYZZoUNte
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) May 17, 2022
⇒ I don’t think we’re going to see Ed Howard back this year:
Cubs VP of player development Jared Banner declined to outline the plans for Ed Howard, the 2020 first-round pick out of Mount Carmel High School who recently suffered a major hip injury: “I don’t want to get into a ton of detail, but he’s going to be out for a while.”
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) May 17, 2022
⇒ Ending on a very high note, with Owen Caissie finally putting together a great stretch at High-A (which, again, was a very challenging assignment). He made the Baseball America Hot Sheet:
18. Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs
Team:Â High-A South Bend (Midwest)
Age: 19Why He’s Here: .471/.550/.765, (8-for-17), 4 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 SO
The Scoop: The 2020 second-rounder of the Padres wasn’t in the system long before getting traded to the Cubs as part of the return for righthander Yu Darvish in December 2020. He quickly proved his worth with his new organization, dominating the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League in 2021 and spending 22 games at Low-A. The 19-year-old finished his best week of the 2022 season with three consecutive multi-hit games while showcasing his plus-plus raw power. The swing and miss is still too high, but Caissie has the tools to one day be a power-hitting force in a major league lineup. (CHT)
