Even after missing a calendar year of action, and even after turning 34, Jacob deGrom is a lock to opt out of his current deal with the New York Mets and hit free agency this offseason for the first time in his career. The Mets and owner Steve Cohen are intent on keeping deGrom in the fold from there, but at what price? Will the Mets break new records to keep deGrom? Will some other team just go so far over the top that the Mets back down?
Just what kind of price level are we even talking about for a guy who is the best of the best when he’s healthy, but has so rarely been healthy?
Jon Heyman explored those questions with nine anonymous folks in baseball, and the responses he got generally landed in the Max Scherzer range (three years, $130 million), with some suggesting a higher AAV, and some suggesting only two years instead of three. One came in at a slightly lower AAV, but for four years. That definitely feels like the ceiling.
It’s possible deGrom winds up getting one of those stupendously complex contracts, that involves multi-year options for the team, multiple opt-outs for the player, vesting options tied to health, etc. We can’t really predict that stuff.
What we can predict is that deGrom is absolutely assuredly going to want to move the market forward – not just for himself, but for all players – and that means he’s going to want to top Scherzer’s $43.3 million AAV, and he’s probably going to start the ask at four years, too. I’m not sure there’s a team out there that would give him, say, four years and $45 million per year, but I really don’t see why that wouldn’t be the initial ask. The Scherzer deal, frankly, would feel like a steal.
Since 2018, deGrom has an ERA under 2 as a starting pitcher, with a FIP that nearly matches, and with peripherals that get better every year despite his age. The knock, of course, is that he’s managed barely 600 innings total over those five-ish seasons, and you have to know that if you sign him to a monster deal, you’re going to be without him for stretches. Maybe even a full season in there somewhere. It’s just the realistic expectation.
I would love the Cubs to be a serious player for deGrom, because his presence in their rotation – heck, any rotation – is absolutely transformative.
At these price levels, I have my doubts.
I think the Cubs are going to be open to big deals this and future offseasons, and I also think they’re going to have a preference for higher-AAV, shorter-term deals. But the absorbed risk for a guy like deGrom is going to require a team that is willing to blow away the initial luxury tax tier for the duration of his contract. We’ve seen a willingness by the Cubs under the Ricketts Family to exceed the luxury tax when the team is playing well and internal players are getting expensive. We’ve not yet seen a willingness to blow out the luxury tax via free agency in anticipation of playing well.
I’m not saying the Cubs won’t spend at that level sooner rather than later. I’m saying only that we have not yet seen a willingness to concentrate $40+ million in spending on one pitcher on a team that isn’t already an 85+ win team on paper.
… but, man, if Jacob deGrom winds up leaving New York and lands “only” the Scherzer deal somewhere? I’ll be pissed if the Cubs didn’t make a serious run at that. They have so much complementary, pre-arbitration talent right now that it seems to me that now is the *best* time to spend huge short-term dollars on impact talent. That’s what they’ll need most heading into next year, and they have plenty of theoretical payroll space to pull it off. Don’t forget those rollover dollars, right?