Long weekends make for good prospect notebooks, and there’s a number of things I wanted to touch on today.
It now looks like a foregone conclusion that every full-season affiliate except Iowa will make the playoffs, which the organization is very excited about. I’m very curious if the Cubs stack a few more 2022 draftees at Myrtle Beach before those playoffs – they haven’t been the same team since half the squad was moved to South Bend – or if we’re too late into the season to ask those guys to debut. That’s what I’m watching for this week (and perhaps the full AFL roster announcement?).
Not enough has happened between his acquisition and today’s call-up to warrant a “What to Expect” post on Hayden Wesneski, but let’s get into that a bit in this space. I charted the pitches from Wesneski’s last outing, five scoreless innings piggybacking Anderson Espinoza in Columbus, and here’s the pitch usage by batter handedness that I observed:
Vs RHH: Fastballs 47%, Slider 47%, Cutter 6%
Vs LHH: Fastballs 41%, Changeup 23%, Slider 21%, Cutter 15%
I’ll point out that the Clippers lineup is stacked with left-handed hitters, so 12 of the 16 batters that Wesneski faced were on that side. So what stood out was the changeup usage, definitely up from his Yankees days, a pitch that flashes above-average, but a pitch that is still in its journey to being fully developed. Its usage has meant a reduction in cutter usage, which tells me the Cubs are likely pursuing some changes to that pitch’s shape. Will be interesting to see the data today (or whenever he debuts).
This is obvious, but especially true with Wesneski: so important to miss the middle-third in the big leagues. Get-me-over sliders, gloveside sinkers that drift to the middle, flat cutters and changeups are all things we’ll see occasionally, leaving me some concern that a higher-than-average home run rate is his short-term destiny.
Changing gears to another prospect, but along the same lines, I also watched back Caleb Kilian’s successful start (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K) in Columbus from this weekend. It fit in with Wesneski’s gameplan well, as the most-lefty lineup Kilian has faced recently forced him into throwing more changeups than I’ve ever seen in a start. It was still just about 6-10, but if Kilian is going to struggle with getting hitters to chase (which was the blame for the walks in this one, rather than non-competitive pitches), every bit of secondary help is important. Ultimately, though, the September 4 start was just a good example of how Kilian can successfully bust hitters inside, which is a contact-management skill that remains a strength.
The best September 4 start was not Kilian’s however, but Ben Brown’s. Brown, the other starting pitching prospect acquired at the trade deadline, bounced back from an up-and-down first inning on Sunday to post his third consecutive good start in Double-A (2.57 ERA, 17/3 K/BB in those outings). Watching Brown’s start back, the Cubs are doing well to lean into Brown’s best offering, the hard slurve that Brown uses to destroy right-handed hitters. This was a start that showed on days when Brown’s fastball command isn’t at its best, he can succeed in using the slurve as his primary offering. There’s a real chance that Brown is going to enter the discussion this offseason as one of the Cubs best three pitching prospects.
Moving over to hitters, notable that James Triantos walked a season-high three times on Sunday, continuing a trend that I think is going to really create some optimism heading into the offseason. In his last 15 games, Triantos has walked eight times, and I think it’s no coincidence that his OPS in that stretch is a fantastic .899. In the 45 games prior to that stretch, Triantos walked just 10 times, with the OPS at .604 in those two-plus months. Good swing decisions are more paramount for Triantos than most hitters, oddly because his ability to make contact is so good. Bad swing decisions lead to bad contact, but learning to pass on some of those decisions and live to fight deeper into the at-bat will help accelerate Triantos to the next level.
While the South Bend Cubs have been playing some fantastic baseball that makes them Midwest League playoff favorites, I did notice what a weird slump Yohendrick Pinango has been in recently: .139/.227/.183 in his last 30 games. To his credit, Pinango has kept walking at an above-average rate during that time, and the contact rate is just fine. Incredibly, it’s a .172 BABIP really keeping the numbers down, though the extremely low ISO does indicate a lacking in quality contact. This slump, which has dragged Pinango’s season line below league-average, is probably enough to take him out of consideration both for a 40-man roster spot and a Rule 5 selection by another team, which isn’t the worst thing in the world for those of us that have seen some positive momentum in his overall development this season.
I’ve praised him some on Twitter, but I don’t think in this space before: I think catcher Ethan Hearn is a guy I’m going to be the high man on this offseason. Hearn has shown massive offensive improvement in 2022, but a disastrous first 24 games is weighing the stats down enough to keep it hidden:
First 24 games: .172/.298/.299
Next 59 games: .218/.329/.435
Now both sets of numbers are dragged down by a horrible mid-thirties strikeout rate that will always put the Mendoza Line in play. But I think if, right now, I had to pick someone to have a Mervis-like breakout in 2023, it would be Hearn. The breakout would happen differently, but if we get to a year from now and Hearn is in that mix as a prospect in the 8-16 range, I won’t be shocked. There’s a power-hitting catcher with intelligence and leadership here, and that’s something we’d rally behind quick.
NEWSLETTER
